Post

Nick Beckstead, noted longtermist and "effective altruist,” just comes out and says it: "But it now seems more plausible to me that saving a life in a rich country is substantially more important than saving a life in a poor country, other things being equal."

285 reposts1.2K likes

Taking his reasoning even more extreme saving a billionaire's life is even more important, given the influence they can wield. And we can see where that has gotten us.

It's such an easy argument to invert. Almost no one can meaningfully and directionally influence the far future, but what you can do is increase the future's options by increasing the diversity of the people that arrive there. Basic ecology.

This sentiment dovetails nicely with Larry Summers' infamous "observation" that Africa is not polluted enough. Neither the people nor the environment of the global south are "worth" what those in the north are worth.

"The future" (phenomenologically) is necessarily a function of our own expectations and biases. bsky.app/profile/shau...

shaunc@shaunc.bsky.social

Longtermism: inherently broken whenaddressing problems not amenable to long-term prediction. Climate science *is* ~predictable. Problems associated with political economy are *not* predictable & attempts to predict always bake in (usually neoliberal) bias. Epistemic humility: essential!

It's especially telling that their takeaway from the fact that "richer countries have substantially more innovation, and their workers are much more economically productive" is that we should ignore suffering in poor countries, rather than try to turn more poor countries into rich countries

There is no doubt that “people in rich countries are better able to influence the far future,” but all the evidence is that they influence it in disastrous ways. So we should be doing all we can to reduce the influence of rich countries.

The effective part is the mass murder for more money while the altruist part is not caring about the consequences. bsky.app/profile/fain...

Faine Greenwood@faineg.com

Nick Beckstead, noted longtermist and "effective altruist,” just comes out and says it: "But it now seems more plausible to me that saving a life in a rich country is substantially more important than saving a life in a poor country, other things being equal."

It's good of him to just come out and flatly state what the rest of us always kind of knew was exactly the point anyway. Could have saved themselves a lot of time and effort by just starting there.

Extermination of "poor people" is a moral requirement under that belief system, if it helps the "rich people". For instance, by ending all humanitarian aid to Africa, or letting Gazans be slaughtered and starved. It's also pretty much functionally identical to racial supremacy.

Even by this deranged metric, it simply *doesn’t occur* to him that maybe turning a currently poor country into a richer country would have exponential benefits? Assuming, stupidly, that current GDP trends will be identical IN A TRILLION YEARS?

At a time when human activity is threatening the species’ continued existence, this has major “how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?” energy.

They also advocated for having governments directly invest in gen AI startups, which can also sound altruistic if you don't realize it's a sign that the money is starting to dry up due to less than zero returns

Yes, exactly. It seems obvious that striving to provide a decent living standard worldwide would unleash far more human potential and therefore have a much greater positive outcome on the “far future.”

Given 1: there are MANY more poor people than rich, 2: the future is based on finding genius level intellects that can solve the truly intractable problems remaining as development roadblocks, and 3: marginal cost to identify, invest in and nurture a poor genius is MUCH LESS than an already rich

... kid who already has the resources available to ID them, it's clear that the RATIONAL expenditure of humanity's wealth is to give all marginal wealth in the rich areas (i.e. what isn't needed for subsistence) should go to the poor. A worldview so easy to knock cracks in is worthless

ICYI, Mary Townsend wrote a terrific, searching essay for us in 2023 that touches these issues (it's very good on the seductive psychological appeal of "solving" the terrifying questions of freedom and ethical obligation by externalizing and quantifying the latter) www.thebulwark.com/p/effective-...

thebulwark.comEffective Altruism Is a Short CircuitFor all its pretensions to mathematical objectivity, the moral paradigm of crypto fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried cannot tell you how to respond to “the terrible temptation to do good.”

I guess it makes sense that these are often the same people scared to death of the paperclip factory AI; it's the same thought process of mindless statmaxxing that leads you to conclude that only lives in rich countries matter. They just picked the stat they're maxxing in a selfish manner.

how about people in rich countries use considerably more resources and produce more pollution than people in poor countries therefore it is actually better for the planet to save the lives of poor people extending this, if we eradicated billionaires we could meet all our global climate goals

As well as being morally repulsive, the logic fails on its own terms. People in rich countries are vastly more likely to create the killer AI that they fantasise is going to wipe us all out. Ditto for nuclear war, climate change, bioweapons. If anything we need fewer rich people!

The rich have viewed the poor as disposable for thousands of years, and invented numerous excuses to justify shitty behavior, and this asshole is talking about it like a novel concept.

Damn, we really are just rebranding and rehashing 1920s and 30s fascist ideals, huh? "Sorry honey, but you know how it is... survival of the fittest!" I say as I push the old lady crossing the street into traffic so that I can cross it slightly faster and book it before the scream and crunch.

Why stop at countries? Why not stop at states or counties? If all other things are equal, then why would we even allow red states to vote? They're not contributing to the "rich country" and are only welfare states

EA seems to be a fine argument for more generous immigration policies, moving people from poorer countries to richer countries. In the U.S. (historically) immigrants have thrived. I bet the EA folks say, “No, no, that’s not what we meant!” But it fits their effective altruism model perfectly.

Right. It’s also the sort of thing that any rational investor sees as an opportunity—if richer countries have more innovation overall, but slow as they mature, then investing in less rich countries (call them “small cap”) gets more effective returns because those people will also innovate.

"I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops" Stephen Jay Gould in 'The Panda's Thumb' Gould was smarter than the techbros & more humane.

Poor are survivalists. Rich are not. Buying what you need to survive means you are dependent on a system to provide things for you. Money doesn’t mean squat when all the things you are dependent on disappear.

Not quite. Givewell disbursed almost $400,000,000 for the 3rd world in 2024. EA's practical focus is far far more 3rd world oriented than conventional philanthropy. (I was going to snarkily ask about what you've done, but I've see you write about drones and the Ukraine. Sincere props for that.)

they should split those endeavors off if they actually value them. they don't because they care about AI safety more and they are willing to discredit and damage those endeavors if it improves AI safety. this is also why they are willing to compact with Elon.

I’ve worked in aid and ethical technology research for years, and we are experiencing a horrific aid crisis brought on by the same tech social milieu that these disgusting people are intermeshed with. Huge numbers of my friends are unemployed now (so I am I). They are doing very little to help.

Indeed, 2013 dissertation says this: "To use an example from chapter 1, ripple from saving lives in poor countries may be substantially smaller than the ripple effects of saving lives in rich countries, though this consideration shouldn’t normally get much weight in deciding which lives to save."

Yeah it is, because Bergstrom spent a good portion of his career advocating for charity for the 3rd world. Which he states in the above note. Heck, he writes in the same dissertation, "...this consideration wouldn’t normally get much weight in deciding which lives to save (p 72)." This is a smear.

I’ve actually worked in aid and know a lot of people who do. He does not impress me in the *slightest*. And what is he devoting his time to mostly now, during a horrible funding crisis brought on by another big tech celebrity?

Imagine sayng we should save rich people not poor people and calling that "altruism". Say what you will about objectivism, they were not pretending it was anything other than selfish.

it's not obvious to me from this paragraph whether he is actually endorsing this view or just describing a view (and explaining what implications it would have), not that I need any particular convincing that longtermism in general is worth opposing

This is also a ridiculous bullshit view of long history adopted from the hoariest of 19th C historiography, it only even kinda makes sense if you believe history only runs in one direction, every thing will get better, and the strong polities of today are a result of inherent superiority!

is EA charity/philanthrophy more skewed towards rich countries than charity/philanthropy in general (or resource allocation in general)? my guess would be that even after longtermist stuff it's probably overall less skewed, not more, but maybe someone with real information can correct this?

and these are the people who are now absorbing and controlling vast amounts of philanthropy spending, during a genuine global aid crisis that their same tech social milieu personally created

He does say "It seems more plausible *to me*" and there are no quotes around this section, so it stands to reason that he's talking about himself, no?

American Universities really just be doling out PhD titles to reductivist eugenicists writing with all the oice and insight of a freshman. I should be surprised, but then I remember Cofnan had a career on 'prestigious' universities.

So we're at the coming out of the closet stage of the story. And for the people that now think to themselves, whew thank God I live in a rich country, that same argument also works at home. The rich are more valuable people and get into the lifeboat first. And that's what they like about EA.

It has always been the point of end-times eschatology and afterlife prioritization, and when elon talks about occupy mars he has the exact same level of grounding in reality: they excuse their current sinful excess with promise of future salvation.

Looking around the US, an awful lot of the actual innovation (and tech leadership) seems to come from people who moved there as adults from lower-income countries. So there’s a strong argument that, at least for <21s, it’s more important to save *their* lives.

Like those save a puppy commercial, soon we’ll see Save the Billionaire…everyday a billionaire somewhere needs your help. Alone & in need of your donation. He hasn’t reached a Trillion and has no love. For just $.97/day, you can save a billionaire. So why feed hungry kid? Why aid the sick & poor?

Remembering how Ziz justified the attempted murder of their landlord with the “violence is the preferable option to paying taxes & landlords pay taxes” argument, I sometimes wonder how any of them squared the circle of that but/also “taxes & grants should fund our non-profits & subsidize our

If a life lived in a developed country is more productive and valuable to all humans, then he should agree that immigration to developed countries should be encouraged! That is much easier than increasing QoL where it is already high. Just add people!!

I want to know why anybody feels the need to try to put the concept of the untermench on a pseudo-philosophical basis. If one is a supremacist then surely all that is required is to declare oneself the ubermench and enforce that axiom at gunpoint. Why crave intellectual respectability at all?

Fascists are not just brutes: they’re intrinsically frauds. The entire Nazi shtick is to conceal their lawless thuggery behind facades of order; adorn their vapid culture in stolen raiments; launder their midwit ideation through layers of needless Ptolemaic circularity.

Building a trolley problem with one poor person on one track and 5 holograms of rich people on the other, then, without even starting the trolley, stamping the real person's face in

This seems so stupid (a) rich people are making more of the problem (b) poor people are more likely to have a caring approach to solving the problem (c) it costs more to 'save' a rich person ....

I saved the thread and am going to read the articles when with a drink in my hand or after an edible kicks in. Otherwise, I'm afraid they'll ruin my day and that wouldn't be an efficient use of a human resource from a sort-of-still-rich country. Tysm for sharing so we know what we're up against

In all seriousness, what is the deal with people like that? Why do they think that? I can't understand how you could become the kind of person who would say that sentence. Can anybody help me? (Unless this is just what rich white think tank or SV dudes are like now?)

The endgame of effective altruism was always going to simply be "fuck yours, got mine" as there was never any reason that someone couldn't make the argument that the most effective place to put wealth is with themselves, arguing they could make a fortune with more downstream positive effect.

It is also a viewpoint very amenable to a ur-fascist constant shifting of rhetorical focus. They could always say, "I don't want to help anybody in one place for reason A," then never help anybody in another place for reason B, and pretty soon they're only helping themselves for reason C.

Again, it's more important to supply guillotines to people in rich countries. When the "global poor" overthrow their local oligarchs, they're just dealing with local problems. But if Americans etc. were to rise up, it might be possible to solve the problem of global oligarchs.

Yeah its one of those things where it means literally the opposite of what it sounds like Because they're just evil fascists and are trying to spin that

Yeah, it's been an obvious trojan horse this whole time. Like "I want to put my money where it'll do the most good" *sounds* good, but when you look at the movement, it's been *exclusively* aid where it would be good for Silicon Valley and technology development.

And would you believe--and this is totally the result of rigorous analysis on my part and absolutely no emotion or bias here--that where it would do the most good just so happens to be my own pocket and my own personal causes? Altruism, baby!

Oh, absolutely. Makes total sense. See, in the far future, we'll be advanced enough to Fix Everything, so the truly moral option is to get to that point as rapidly as possible regardless of what happens along the way, and since we're the only ones who understand that, we _have_ to take priority!

Turns out the humanities actually matter. Some of these people could have taken a single intro to philosophy class and would have turned out less insane.

So much innacuracy here. Look at the good work that GiveWell endorsed charities have done throughout the world. Bednets are one of a number of interventions that have saved many lives; what is the evidence that these are targeted for selfish gain?

GiveWell has a problem with its endorsements being overly narrowly focused and glossing over stuff that would help various countries and regions develop properly in directions that would mean they don’t need the interventions in the future. Maybe think about why a bunch of SV dudes wouldn’t

Like mosquito nets but only in areas that mine rare earth metals. If it's for literally anything else? They nitpick it to death and start going on about overhead and have genuinely ludicrous ideas about what a reasonable level of charity overhead is (like, most charities couldn't function).

So it suckered in a bunch of people who thought the initial pitch for the concept sounded good and now they're in on an apocalyptic sex cult to varying degrees and literally can't comprehend the idea that maybe people deserve help just because they need it.

I knew they were effectively kinda high-concept libertarians, but I hadn't put the words 'effective altruism' together with the harmless-seeming human future stuff in HPMOR and arrived at 'therefore we must burn the present to create the glorious future which will retroactively redeem the past'

We should perhaps start calling longtermist EA people “Enormous A**holes” instead because it’s clear as soon as bed nets and deworming pills weren’t “innovative” anymore they let their neurosis and bigotry take over.

When I first heard about effective altruism or using empirical reasoning to guide charity, it seemed 180° to this shit. EAs, I’d have thought, would do things like buy mosquito nets for Africa because it saves more lives per dollar.

Charity in the poorest places ought to be ideal, because presumably each dollar will stretch farther, and the marginal value of lifting someone out of penury, or teaching people to read with no prior access to education, is much greater than the value the same effort gets elsewhere.

But if rich countries have significantly more innovation than poor countries, and also assuming decreasing returns for innovation, one should redistribute a lot of wealth from rich to poor countries.

This is just trickle down economics and randian objectivism with a new name. As with everything claiming to be “rational” or “unemotional” it is the complete opposite. Ultimately the stated goal is supposedly to end extreme human suffering in an “objective” way.

But it just consists of passing the buck. With “innovation” the idea is “yeah I dunno maybe at some point in the future someone will figure out a way to maybe help those poor countries but that help can only come from the smart rich ones.” Aka the white ones.

These ideologies never acknowledge that eventually, at some point, SOMEONE will have to make the decision to give those people food, shelter, and clothing. But by creating this big roundabout indirect way of doing it, it never actually has to happen.

For a true believer who isn’t trying to grift people but actually thinks this will help, they hope for a theoretical altruistic messianic figure who decides finally that it’s in his best economic interest to help the poors. But it never occurs to them that like, oh we don’t actually have to wait.

The quote is accurate, of course, but in case it slipped anyone's attention, just a reminder that the quote is from 2013. One interesting question: in the decade plus since he said that, whether the rest of the EA community embraced that quote, rejected it, or didn't notice it.