Dan Bowen

We found that as of right now 73% of your campaign donation goes back to the consultants and vendors (!!!), four times more than just 20 years ago. Only 13% to ads. Even I was shocked.

This is remarkably dangerous. Polls are one way we understand the integrity of election results. They are a tool of democracy. Here is a vengeful regime official implying that networks can be punished for polls they don't like.

Blaise Pascal invented public transit in the 1660s. As the greatest mathematician of his age, he saw the math problem that only transit would solve. I wrote about this amazing story here. humantransit.org/2024/12/one-...

It looks like every political science degree program will meet the education department earnings threshold www.theheagroup.com/blog/earning...

We've probably learned more about American politics from the ANES than any other single data source. The same is true for the GSS and sociology. Both of these are gone if Congress acquiesces to these NSF cuts.

Solomon: cut the baby in half Mathematician: good. Now cut it in half again and continue cutting it in halves until the partitions are small enough to fit smoothly along an irregular curve. The number of cuts will approach infinity as the sum converges to the exact definite integral

New paper with @mjnelson.bsky.social Affluent + highly educated are more knowledgeable about state policies. Issue publics reduce knowledge disparities for some groups (LGBT on LGBT issues, women on abortion), but these disparities remain within issue publics. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

#OpenAccess from State Politics and Policy Quarterly - Women and Politics Research in State Politics and Policy Quarterly, 2000–2025 - https://cup.org/4iMGs1f - Tracy Osborn, @brownphdgirl.bsky.social, Guillermo Caballero & Anna Mahoney #FirstView

New from @umlcpo.bsky.social / @today.yougov.com in Maine: 8/28-9/14 U.S. Senate Jackson 48% Collins 43 Another candidate 1 Undecided 6 Will not vote 1 So much to unpack in this, check it all out via the link for topline, methodology, etc.

What do voters want from their elected leaders? What causes voters to vote for the party/candidate they do? What causes potential voters to turn out to the polls? What ultimately decides election outcomes between equally-matched parties? These are distinct questions and each have different answers.

This is right. In fact, this is the mistake of the Biden Admin/Dems. Post 2020, they interpreted Trump's defeat as a repudiation of Trump rather than a "sign of the times" response to a global pandemic. Assuming Dems win again in 26 and 28, they will find voters ready to blame them once in power.

Very excited to visit the Happiest Place on Earth, by which I of course mean the @ropercenter.bsky.social polling archives

Niche political science primary update - David Redlawsk is up in a big way in Delaware's 23rd district. 62% of the vote, with 22% in.

This weekend from @gelliottmorris.com: CBS and The Economist both released polls conducted on YouGov covering a similar period. CBS was D+8 and the Economist was D+11 on the generic ballot. CBS asked the normal generic ballot question. Economist named candidates + parties. Big difference in results

Money that comes into the United States government is government revenue. It is part of the public fisc. There's not "taxpayer money" and then "extra bonus money outside the rules." It's all taxpayer money. And spending *any* of it requires Congressional authorization. 2/

Republicans used to have a big turnout advantage in Midterms (see 2010 & 2014) because their core supporters were more engaged and likely to show up than the Democrats. Trump chased a bunch of these types of high SES voters out of the party--they're Democrats now. 2/x

Eliot lowkey foreseeing the vibes of social media

Agreed to put just the first floor of our house on our neighborhood historic home tour, but already having regretzzzz. But if you're an NJ local who wants to nose into historic Trenton homes, get your tickets. Proceeds benefit HomeWorks Trenton. www.dathil.com/cadwalader/C...

Today's @xkcd.com

Meta is a creep who will _never_ take no for an answer, and never stop trying to ignore their lack of consent. Every media & regulatory organization in the world seems determined to ignore this reality; I genuinely don't understand why. Today's settlement is so that Meta can keep violating consent.

Beyond excited to announce that the newest edition of PUBLIC OPINION, written by Rosalee Clawson, Zoe Oxley, and ME(!!) is available now! This book is filled with lots of cool material geared towards undergrads, super proud! Find the book here: collegepublishing.sagepub.com/products/pub...

I need help from the bluesky hive mind: I’ve been asked to consult on a law suit and they want to know my hourly rate and retainer fee. So, uh, what should I say? How does one determine such a number?

Many many many people (like half of my students) wanna do DiD with a continuous treatment variable. When I first read the working paper version, I was like "well I can't do much with this knowledge until they provide some code"--but now there's an R package! bcallaway11.github.io/contdid/

A few weeks ago I realized that tomorrow is the date the Ray Bradbury story “There Will Come Soft Rains” takes place. It’s a shame science fiction from 75 years ago isn’t relevant anymore

In Philly, I have seen vague orange signs warning about irresponsible development ("Their Profit. Your Loss!"). The Inquirer traced them to the Carpenters union, working to mobilize residents into zoning meetings. My work w/ Asya Magazinnik & Anna Weissman helps explain their logic.

Added something new today. I've had several users ask me for an image of a box score that was meaningful to them in some way. Maybe they got engaged at the game, or caught a home run. You can now create an image of your favorite box score. boxscore.email/mlb/art

I think some history is important here. After HRC lost in 2016, there was a very strong sense among "the establishment" that the party needed to move left.* *I experienced this personally, because all of a sudden I was getting invited to foreign-policy events. 1/x

📢 JOB ANNOUNCEMENT 📢 Our department is hiring an Assistant Professor of Quantitative Political Science. We seek a scholar in AP, CP, PE, or IR who applies frontier methods of statistics and data science to substantive questions in their area of expertise. apply.interfolio.com/189477

Here's a little something that might interest a number of you in my network, part of a forum in the Journal of Public Policy: www.cambridge.org/core/journal.... Many thanks to editor Josh Ryan and the commentators Samuel Bagg, Tara Grillos, Agustin Markarian, and Mary Scudder!

Latest version of Positron can open xlsx files in the data viewer(!) and it has a dropdown menu now for previewing different formats of #QuartoPub documents And—most importantly, but also from a few weeks ago, so less new—the plots panel can pick up dimensions from chunk options!!!! #rstats

Internecine Democratic Party Bluesky is absolutely the worst Bluesky.

Pork roll, egg, and cheese on an egg everything bagel = perfect start to Father's Day in New Jersey

*with sound effects*

For years I've tracked billionaire excess. Each year I show students a chart that blows their minds. This year I had to redraw it for a trillionaire: Elon Musk, $1.32T. Depressing that we're here. Silver lining: couldn't have happened to a less deserving person, proof that wealth ≠ merit.

How has the US added housing supply since 2000? Are conservative places building a lot more than liberal places? In new research, I show that: —Additional homes were disproportionately in high-income, conservative, greenfield areas —BUT infill growth was more likely to be located in liberal areas

Let’s not be hasty. The Queen of England was almost assassinated this way.

Added BlueSky compatibility to Wallflower. All your Mastodon and BlueSky posts in one (quiet, restrained) place. https://thewallflower.app