Stephen Wolf

NEW: The 2026 elections in most states will decide which party runs elections heading into 2028 (see map). We detail how Democrats could hold or gain this power in 14 potentially competitive states—and form a bulwark against MAGA subverting the 2028 elections www.the-downballot.com/p/voters-can...

It’s all the same map

NEW: An army of volunteers and activists across the US have been training for months to face down ICE at the polls on election day. The message they have for the Trump administration? "We're ready" 1/ www.wired.com/story/massiv...

This summer, we banned low-rent poll aggregation engagement farms from our Discord server. Didn’t need any further examples to back us up, but we sure got one tonight.

“The majority also sets the rules, and the first rule it should change is how the final vote is cast. The Senate can adopt a secret ballot on conviction by simple majority under its own rulemaking power, with each senator’s vote recorded in the Senate’s journal and sealed for a term of years.”

NEW: The group behind Cornel West's 2024 ballot push was wholly funded through Elon Musk's dark money network, according to Sludge's review of tax documents. readsludge.com/2026/10/26/m...

This, but also, as a liberal I believe in freedom and human rights for all people, all around the world. That translates into rooting interests in elections where freedoms and rights are on the ballot, as they often are.

A single billionaire megadonor is propping up the Republican effort to stop Dems from flipping Pennsylvania’s Senate and gaining full control of government—to a much greater degree than Elon Musk is doing it at the federal level

How you know Election Day is almost upon us: It's time for The Downballot's annual prediction contest, with prizes sponsored by the gloriously delicious GreensBabka.com! And this year's contest is bigger and badder than ever. Click below for full details & a link to submit your guesses. Good luck!

If she wins a full term in November, Fire Thunder would join a growing number of Indigenous women successfully seeking higher office across the country. In Montana, the success of these candidates is a result of decades of women-led organizing on the ground.

“The Department of Justice is putting its formidable thumb on next week’s elections in a way that seems clearly intended to call into question the legitimacy of any result that is especially unfavorable to Republicans—before those results have even come in.” Me on DOJ’s California and Alaska suits:

The US is not about to have a free and fair election. The state has put its thumb on the scale to favor the ruling party in multiple ways. It's a mostly free, somewhat unfair election. But still one where the ruling party can be overwhelmed by numbers. Hence the term "competitive authoritarianism."

Median rent as a share of median income of renter households in major U.S. metros, 2010 vs. 2024. Minneapolis is lowest on the list, at 29%, down from 30.4% in 2010. www.artio.so/dataviz/page...

In Brazil, it appears that voters who opted for eliminated first-round candidates roughly broke even in the runoff (even if the candidates leaned right). But the big difference was: Millions of voters who cast 'null' or 'blank' ballots in the first round then voted for Lula.

Arizona Democrats may be on the verge of passing sweeping expansions to voting access if they win. Arizona Republicans have relentlessly tried to suppress voters, leading to the Supreme Court’s 2021 Brnovich ruling where Alito gutted Voting Rights Act section 2 protections for voting access

Gov. Katie Hobbs has spent her four years in office with a hostile GOP legislature. But Hobbs' lead in the polls gives Democrats their best chance in generations to break the GOP's hold over the state Senate and state House—a body the GOP flipped in *1966* and has yet to lose.

Best day for democracy worldwide in quite some time: Brazil’s center-left president won the runoff in an upset, blocking the far-right from gaining unified power. Serbia’s right-wing authoritarian government finally lost control of parliament after more than a decade in power

Best day for democracy worldwide in quite some time: Brazil’s center-left president won the runoff in an upset, blocking the far-right from gaining unified power. Serbia’s right-wing authoritarian government finally lost control of parliament after more than a decade in power

The next 10 days will be monumental, with elections in Serbia, Brazil, Israel and the US. This one was a victory for democracy.

The long-serving strongman leader of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, has conceded defeat in an election that pitted him and his right-wing party against a diverse student-led opposition movement that spent two years protesting his government.

The number of times I've seen calling an unnecessary early election backfire at this point has gotten me all

County government fights I'm watching most closely: Possible flip to Dems: —Tarrant Co, TX —Fort Bend Co, TX —Hillsborough Co, FL —Miami-Dade Co, FL —Washoe Co, NV Possible flip to GOP: —Orange Co, CA —Clark Co, WA —Montgomery Co, OH Currently tied! —Will County, IL Details:

"The rejection rate is at about 3% statewide, and two or three times as high as in some larger counties. “Potentially thousands of votes could be spoiled by this new guidance... This is a huge deal for North Carolina.” www.nytimes.com/2026/10/21/u...

From my @slate.com piece on Alaska: slate.com/news-and-pol...

There will be a major tendency among pundits to downplay GOP gerrymandering when Democrats flip the House and the GOP fails to flip some of its mid-decade remap targets, but the pre-2026 baseline was still very gerrymandered. Even in a wave, the national map could cost Dems two dozen seats or more

We'll see how far the attempt goes, even if it will clearly fail. But a constitutional system that sees such an attempt by its chief executive and then leaves him in office has already been shattered. Merely trying is betrayal enough and places him outside of constitutional or democratic legitimacy.

That it'll fail because they lack sufficient consolidation and centralized control does not make it trivial that the president of the United States is trying to steal elections and produce an illegitimate sham Congress. It is open rebellion against the Constitution and morally tantamount to treason.

scott galloway and jessica tarlov held an event here in town yesterday where “don’t impeach or waste time on investigations because ‘28” was the consensus position of the panel. so yeah, this is something to anticipate.

This is a lawsuit only in the same sense that any old crazy person can roll up to the courthouse and hand in a napkin scrawled in crayon about how the lizard people are eating their thoughts.

This would be the most any person has donated in any election cycle. And #2 is also Musk, in 2024.

Some Dems still don't get it, though: "Don Beyer opposes Virginia redistricting redo" In January, VA Dems can replace the Supreme Court justice who wrote the 4-3 ruling overturning their constitutional amendment. They could try to get the court to reverse its ruling and implement their map for 2028

Mega-donors giving $1M+ make up 54% of GOP fundraising so far this cycle. It’s not just billionaires lining up for Trump’s open air auction of federal policy and contracts. The GOP also spammed and grifted its own small-dollar base into oblivion.

Rare poll of South Dakota finds voters overwhelmingly rejecting measure to repeal Medicaid expansion if federal support for expansion ever falls below 90% of its cost. Emerson College also shows huge majority rejecting plan to require 60% to amend constitution. www.keloland.com/keloland-com...

A federal judge in California barred DHS agents deployed as part of the “Unlawful Voter Initiative” from conducting field operations and stops that “involve or are likely to involve” citizens. Recently naturalized citizens had been a target, to see if any voted before naturalization.

Major news this morning. Louise Lucas, a chief antagonist of Trump and Virginia Republicans (and one of the most vocal proponents of gerrymandering the state earlier this year) is criminally charged by the feds over her marijuana business:

A timely reminder. But note that while the slope of every graph is positive, the x-intercept is sometimes positive (2014; Rs outperformed on average in light blue states)... and sometimes negative (2012; Ds outperformed on average even in moderately red states).