Taniel

NEW: My midterms cheat sheet features 670+ races—up and down the ballot, & why they matter. Now it's in PDF, printable form! Save it, print it, give it to your kids to color the Senate map, & use it your worksheet on election night. Find it here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...

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To anyone who is using this worksheet. First, we love it! Also consider joining our newsletter, it's weekly & free, to stay up to date. boltsmag.org/newsletter And: We have no paywall—but you can choose to sign up to become a subscriber at whatever level! Easy to support us: boltsmag.org/donate

The Immigrant Legal Resource Center

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An Arizona pollster finds a fairly apocalyptic landscape for the state GOP. (Same as they did earlier this month.) It's Arizona High Grounds. They have Dems leading by double-digits for governor (52/39), SOS, and AG, & single-digits for treasurer and superintendent of public instruction.

Taniel reposted

Yonah Freemark

@yonahfreemark.com

The US general elections are one week from today—and many people are already voting! There are many key elections I'll be following, based on the @boltsmag.org cheatsheet boltsmag.org/whats-on-the..., with some specifically interesting referendums coming up on housing & transportation issues... 🧵

Taniel@taniel.bsky.social

Taniel reposted

@the-ilrc.bsky.social

“When New York legislators approved the state budget earlier this year, they folded in legislation to protect immigrant communities from President Donald Trump’s aggressive crackdown.” 🔗

boltsmag.orgNew York Banned ICE Contracts. Pro-ICE Sheriffs Could Stand in the Way. - BoltsOrange County was forced to end its lucrative contract to detain immigrants in the local jail. Sheriff Paul Arteta, who’s up for reelection, is among those suing to keep it.

boltsmag.org“We're Afraid on a Daily Basis”: How a Maryland Sheriff Targeted Immigrants Long Before ICE Raids Spiked - BoltsFrederick County’s sheriff turned his office into a force multiplier for ICE before such collaboration became commonplace. As he again faces voters this year, the harm to immigrant communities is impo...

In Maryland, just 50 miles from DC, a sheriff has relentlessly targeted local immigrants for over 20 years. He is running for reelection next week in a county that went for Harris over Trump. Make sure to share story: boltsmag.org/frederick-co...

ajc.comGeorgia Republicans could redraw maps, limit governor’s powers after electionState GOP leaders have not said if they plan to have a special session. But Democrats are already preparing for one.

Georgia is one of the main states to watch for Republicans to redo their WI/NC playbook of using the lame duck session to entrench power after losing elections. New reporting on what they might do if they lose: www.ajc.com/politics/202...

Taniel reposted

Bolts

@boltsmag.org

19h

The midterms will decide who is running election mechanics in 2028, the next presidential cycle. Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio are just some of the states with open contests for secretary of state.

boltsmag.orgThese 35 States Are Deciding Who’ll Run Their Elections - BoltsThe midterms will usher in a new cast of characters to oversee the next presidential race. They’ll decide how to answer Trump’s orders and how to shape mail voting and registration.

14h

So far, remarkably high turnout by young Black voters in Georgia. Eye-popping chart.

Dj@djsoke.bsky.social

18k 18-29 voters in GA today, 53% of the same day in 2024, by far the highest %24 day so far. Today only: Black 18-29: 77.3% of 2024 White 18-29 voters in blue ATL counties: 51.9% White 18-29 in the rest of the state: 31.3% Cumulative numbers below

open to suggestions!

Steve Horton 🎃 The Comic Book Story of Space Exploration@mst3k.fan

I think you need a catchphrase when a race is decided

i may use this one for when polls close in a particular state. (please forgive the cringe. we only get one biiig Election Night every two years.)

Renée the Wicked Witch of Woke ✨️ 🇺🇦 ♿️ 🖇@reneeincarnation.bsky.social

Fasten your seat Bolts!

realistically, *this* is the sort of thing I'm likeliest to be saying... bsky.app/profile/flug...

Mike Czaplicki@flughafencza.bsky.social

"With that one on the books, don't sleep on these 26 races we're still watching for local water districts!"

open to suggestions!

Steve Horton 🎃 The Comic Book Story of Space Exploration@mst3k.fan

I think you need a catchphrase when a race is decided

loving that so many of you are taking it seriously, AND all the bolts puns

everyone should start loading up a lot of sleep to get thru the night on November 3

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18h

For folks who’ve been asking me about the printable worksheet version of our Bolts election guide, it’s coming tomorrow!

boltsmag.orgYour Cheat Sheet to the 2026 General Elections - BoltsCongressional races will take center stage on Nov. 3, but they’re just the tip of what to watch. Prosecutors and governors, attorneys general and sheriffs, school boards and mayors, utility... Read Mo...

18h

Or you can go to our digital version! boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...

Taniel reposted

Stephen Wolf

@stephenwolf.bsky.social

23h

A single billionaire megadonor is propping up the Republican effort to stop Dems from flipping Pennsylvania’s Senate and gaining full control of government—to a much greater degree than Elon Musk is doing it at the federal level

Adam Bonin@adambonin.bsky.social

Via @stephenjcaruso.bsky.social, who really should post here more than there, I'm counting $8.52M from Jeffrey Yass to try to preserve a GOP state senate majority in PA (candidate giving, SRCC, and State GOP) and another $1.1M to stanch the bleeding in the state house, where Dems lead 103-100.

Taniel reposted

Karl DEFEND DEMOCRACY Bunday 🇺🇸 🗽 🇺🇦 🇹🇼

@45xiatai.bsky.social

Every two years I look for @taniel.bsky.social's Cheat Sheet to the general elections. Here is the 2026 cheat sheet. I will be referring to this on election night. boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...

23h

South Carolina's former governors Jim Hodges, a Democrat, and David Beasley, a Republican, shoot a joint 60-second ad endorsing Annie Andrews for Senate. You can watch it here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARZ5...

redditors, follow us! ↓↓↓

Noble Ingram@nobleingram.bsky.social

A nice milestone for @boltsmag.org: we just hit 10,000 Reddit karma 🎉 Reddit is one of many, many platforms we’re experimenting with and we’ve seen some big responses to our stories over there since we started the account last year. If you’re active there, follow us: www.reddit.com/user/boltsmag/

Underrated but so important! boltsmag.org/your-state-b...

boltsmag.orgThey’ve Long Clashed on Voting Rights. Now They’re Facing Off for a Supreme Court Seat. - BoltsNorth Carolina Justice Anita Earls, a former voting rights lawyer, and Sarah Stevens, a longtime legislator, have been on opposite sides of election issues for over a decade.

In Brazil, it appears that voters who opted for eliminated first-round candidates roughly broke even in the runoff (even if the candidates leaned right). But the big difference was: Millions of voters who cast 'null' or 'blank' ballots in the first round then voted for Lula.

mathieu gallard@mathieugallard.bsky.social

🗳️Une estimation des reports de voix entre les deux tours qui explique les sources du succès de Lula : remobilisation des abstentionnistes, basculement des hésitants, transferts catastrophiques des électeurs des petits candidats de droite vers Bolsonaro. e26.pm.radio.am

Taniel reposted

Bolts

@boltsmag.org

As a GOP legislator in North Carolina, Sarah Stevens helped her party adopt gerrymanders and strict voter ID rules. Now she’s running to unseat Democratic Justice Anita Earls, who voted to strike down those laws.

Taniel reposted

Mephtrix

@mephtrix.bsky.social

Reading going from "the heck does that mean, isnt it already?" to "Oh shit, this should be everywhere"

Taniel@taniel.bsky.social

One of most interesting pro-voter maneuvers this fall: After facing years of attacks against popular initiatives, organizers in Missouri and Montana are pushing two measures this November that'd give their states arguably the strongest legal protections in the country for direct democracy:

boltsmag.orgTo Protect Direct Democracy, Two States Mull a New Approach: Name It As a Right - BoltsAfter years of attacks on voters’ power to take matters into their own hands, democracy advocates are going on the offensive in Montana and Missouri. They’ve placed constitutional amendments on... Rea...

Taniel reposted

Mark Schmitt

@mschmitt9.bsky.social

The "race that hadn't crossed your radar before" is the best answer to the question, "where will my donation (of money, time, etc) have the greatest impact. Especially now.

FREEBROOKLYN❌👑@freebklyn.bsky.social

Let’s do all of this. Please, go to the article and the listings, find a race that hadn’t crossed your radar before, and do something to help them out; a donation (if you can), volunteer for them, text a friend who lives there about the candidate, post about them on social media. Talk with people.

Taniel reposted

FREEBROOKLYN❌👑

@freebklyn.bsky.social

Taniel@taniel.bsky.social

The size of the 'blue wave' isn't just about how far Dems get in the. U.S. House. There are hundreds of local offices that could flip if Dems have a great night—attorneys general, county governments, utility commissions, school boards. Lots to peruse on my guide to 670 items to watch on Nov. 3!

i wrote for @themarshallproject.org on where and how criminal justice policy is on the ballot in 9 days, drawing from our reporting and research at bolts: www.themarshallproject.org/2026/10/24/g...

themarshallproject.orgKey Local and State Criminal Justice Elections to Follow in the MidtermsCongressional elections draw top attention, but down-ballot candidates and measures shape criminal justice and law enforcement for most people.

Taniel reposted

BeshearStan

@beshearstan.bsky.social

Kansas Dem Sen. nominee Adam Hamilton on trans rights: “I don’t think we should take a small group of people and bully them, pick on them, and hurt them. I understand one thing really clearly when it comes to transgender people, and that is Jesus told me I was to love my neighbor as I love myself”

boltsmag.orgHigh Schoolers Push to Extend the Voting Age to 16 for Local Elections in This LA Suburb - BoltsIn Culver City, California, students are trying to drum up support for a November ballot measure to let 16- and 17-year-olds participate in city council and school board elections.

Turnout in Brazil was 81 percent today, up from 79 percent in the 2022 election.

Taniel reposted

Bolts

@boltsmag.org

Culver City’s vice mayor says lowering the voting age in local elections could strengthen civic engagement and voting habits. “We are at an existential moment for democracy in this county. And here we have people who are ready and willing to be engaged.”

I'm going to start this thread on the presidential count in Brazil—so people who are interesting can follow along. With 3% of vote counted, Lula up 51.3 to 48.7 (that's a lead of 103K). Pattern in 2022 & in R1 was Lula down big at 1st, then closing gap, but that's shaken up by today's 2-hour delay.

View full thread

This thread comes to a close... ... as we now have a final result. Let the records show that, with 92% of the vote countywide, Lula is up 3.3%. (Can he end up doubling his 2022 margin?)

Taniel@taniel.bsky.social

Lula has been reelected president, Brazilian media has now called. An extraordinary comeback for the left-wing politician who trailed by 2 points in round 1 but managed to hold off Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president's son.

nytimes.comAleksandar Vucic Concedes Defeat in Serbian Election“It is clear that we have lost these elections,” Aleksandar Vucic said in a surprisingly early speech congratulating his opponents.

We have near final results from Brazil, 99.8% reporting: Lula 51.76% Bolsonaro 48.24% In 2022, Lula beat Bolsonaro's father by 1.8%; so he has nearly doubled his lead. Also, if you followed this thread & enjoyed it... be sure to follow me: I'll be tracking 700 US elections at once in 9 days!

Brazil was of two huge election results today—alongside the defeat of the nationalist, authoritarian leader of Serbia: "the slate of candidates selected by protesting students had won at least 135 seats in Serbia’s 250-member legislature" www.nytimes.com/2026/10/25/w...

Lula has flipped the state of Amapa, which he lost to Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 runoff by 3 percentage points. He will win it today; he is ahead by 6 percentage points with 99% of precincts reporting. He'd finished ahead by a hair in the first round, 45.7% to 45.7%.

With 83% of the vote counted nationwide, Lula has stretched his lead to 2.8 million votes. That's a lead of 51.4% to 48.6%. That puts him on track for a victory that could be larger than his 1.8% win four years ago, which would be an immense comeback. He's even up in Minas Gervais now, by 0.6%.

Lula has taken the overall, countrywide lead back. With 62% of precincts counted, he is ahead 50.6% to 49.4%, which is an edge of roughly 900,000 votes. He is also getting the shift he needs (compared to the first round) in virtually every state that has reported most of the vote.

States I haven't mentioned yet that are > 90% reporting: —Amazonas: Lula +6.6% (R1: L+3.2) —Alagoas: Lula +22.5 (R1: L+14.2) —Acre: Bolsonaro +33% (R1: B+36) —Santa Catarina: Bolsonaro +38.4% (R1: B+42) —Rio Grande do Norte: Lula +32.2% (R1: L+25) —Pará: Lula +9.2% (R1: L+5.4)

6 states have counted at least 90% of precincts: —Distrito Federal: Bolsonaro +8.6% (R1: B+13) —Tocatins: Bolsonaro +3% (R1: B+7) —Paraíba: Lula +36% (R1: L+28) —Mato Grosso do Sul: Bolsonaro +19.6% (R1: B+24) —Espírito Santo: Bolsonaro +12.2% (R1: B+17) —Paraná: Bolsonaro +25.2% (R1: B+29)

Bolsonaro was ahead by 2 points in Round 1. So the extremely basic rule of thumb is that Lula wants to see the results shift by at least 2 points toward him from the first round to the runoff. That's true in all 6 of the states that are nearly done. But caution there's MANY others left.

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More states have counted the majority of their precincts: —Espírito Santo, 70% reporting: Bolsonaro leads by 13.4%. (He won by 17% in R1. His father won by 16%.) —Mato Grosso do Sul, 82% reporting: Bolsonaro up 21%. (He won R1 by 23.9%. His dad by 19%.)

Symbol of the night so far: State of Minas Gerais is typically presented as THE swing state. It voted for Lula by 0.4% in the 2022 runoff; then, swung to Bolsonaro, who won it 48% to 43% in round 1. A third of the precincts have been counted so far, & results have been 50.0-50.0 for a while.

Taniel reposted

Captanne

@captanne.bsky.social

For folks interested in the Brazil runoff election (Bolsonaro Jr v. Lula) @taniel.bsky.social is kind enough to manage a thread of returns.

Taniel@taniel.bsky.social

Another state has joined the group that's counted at least 50% of precincts: Paraná, in the South. Bolsonaro is up by 25%. (He led by 28.9% here in R1. His dad won by 25% four years ago.) Also noteworthy: Bolsonaro's edge in Distrito Federal now at +8.8% with 87% reporting.

For people keeping an eye on countrywide results: Bolsonaro is now up with 25% reporting, 50.5% to 49.5%. (That's a lead of 260K votes.) Right-friendly states have reported more first—as they had three weeks ago, & in 2022. Left-friendly North slower. W we're keeping an eye on state-level shifts.

Another striking result *so far*: The state of Tocantins. It went for Bolsonaro in the first round, 50% to 43%. (A reminder Boslonaro won the first round by 2.) With 40% precincts now counted here, Lula is up 51% to 49%.