George Pearkes

George Pearkes

@peark.es

No longer Bluesky’s only resident finance bro | Macro Strategist | Even the blind squirrel get a nut sometime. | #ForTheCrown, #COYG | 🇺🇸 via 🇨🇦. Not 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿. | Normal man, one of the Normal Men *ALL CAPS HEADLINES LIKE THIS ARE FROM BLOOMBERG 📍 CLT

101.4K followers 1K following95.2K posts

Pinned

Replying to @buddyyakov.bsky.social

it's absolutely silly how much random knowledge you can accrue with a Bloomberg terminal and a dash of intellectual curiosity.

George Pearkes reposted

@nicktimiraos.bsky.social

Replying to @chrisgiles.ft.com

N.B.: Some of the same voices that said it predicted the inflation of 2021 also cited it to predict a much more rapid disinflation in 2023-24 than what materialized. www.wsj.com/opinion/fed-... www.wsj.com/opinion/fed-...

wsj.comOpinion | Hanke and Greenwood Predict Recession in 2024‘Prices will continue to slide downward, with the headline CPI coming in below 2% by year’s end.’

Some context around this, from a markets person. Historically in LatAm, leftist victories have led to sharp losses over the ~3 months after an election where the left wins. Stocks also typically underperformed into those victories. But 3y post-election, returns for leftists have been *higher*.

Lewis Wade 🗃️@wadehistory.bsky.social

It's very, very telling, I think, that the markets are so concerned about the pro-democracy incumbent winning

ft.comLula faces a fiscal reckoning after Brazil’s market routConcerns about management of economy trigger worst day for currency in more than 25 years

View full thread

But the same problem applies here; the marginal buyers and sellers of bonds are also heavily skewed to the Bolsonarist regime. There’s a behavioral overlay! In reality, given the composition of Congress, Lula’s term is very likely to be neutral or positive for deficits at the margin.

TLDR: underlying fundamentals are complicated, market positioning and bias is less so.

Some context around this, from a markets person. Historically in LatAm, leftist victories have led to sharp losses over the ~3 months after an election where the left wins. Stocks also typically underperformed into those victories. But 3y post-election, returns for leftists have been *higher*.

Lewis Wade 🗃️@wadehistory.bsky.social

It's very, very telling, I think, that the markets are so concerned about the pro-democracy incumbent winning

ft.comLula faces a fiscal reckoning after Brazil’s market routConcerns about management of economy trigger worst day for currency in more than 25 years

View full thread

In other words, the equity pain is a behavioral dislocation more than a rational assessment of the outlook.

The same basic logic applies to bonds. Bolsonaro would have gutted social spending. Bad for the economy, good for bond holders. That’s why BRL 10y yields dropped 125 bps after first round, and why they’re up 250 now.

Some context around this, from a markets person. Historically in LatAm, leftist victories have led to sharp losses over the ~3 months after an election where the left wins. Stocks also typically underperformed into those victories. But 3y post-election, returns for leftists have been *higher*.

Lewis Wade 🗃️@wadehistory.bsky.social

It's very, very telling, I think, that the markets are so concerned about the pro-democracy incumbent winning

ft.comLula faces a fiscal reckoning after Brazil’s market routConcerns about management of economy trigger worst day for currency in more than 25 years

Most of this is behavioral. Equity markets are doing several things at once. 1) shifting estimates for growth of profits 2) reflecting the biases of the people doing that estimating 3) responding to near-term price-insensitive buying/selling by the people that own them

In the case of Lula, it’s straightforwardly obvious that his fourth term will be less friendly to corporate profits than Bolsonaro. An “ideology-neutral” assessment on growth is a mixed bag, not clear either way. But depressed Bolsonarists are now panicking and they own lots of Brazil’s market.

George Pearkes reposted

@tyschalter.com

the washington free beacon is trying to october surprise abdul by revealing his comms chief used to post bangers

oh what now *MBAPPE SAYS: "I HAVE DEEP RESPECT FOR THE CHINESE PEOPLE"

*GM TO TRANSFER STOCK EXCHANGE LISTING TO NASDAQ FROM NYSE

People say the wildest stuff dog

davidgarciaspai.bsky.social@davidgarciaspai.bsky.social

Well, there is no rule of law or SEC in the US, so they are just moving in the hope they can rebrand as some tech crap and then have retail idiots buy their stock. Fundamentals do not matter - it is just pure "marketing" or fraud when reality hits and stock is down 99% and govt bailouts are needed

$UPS raising guide after a Q3 beat *UPS SEES FY REV. ABOUT $92.6B, SAW ABOUT $91.2B, EST. $91.79B

*BOLSONARO: FEDERAL POLICE REQUESTED I GIVE THEM MY PASSPORT

He’s giving up.

De-escalating is retreat. If he thought he could get it done he wouldn’t be backing off.

John@lexaproluthor.bsky.social

He's not, though. Switching tactics, but those screenshots say he's still filing a case to invalidate the results, just with a marginally less stupid angle.

George Pearkes reposted

ghost malone ergo propter bones

@proptermalone.bsky.social

there might be feelings better than having your kid snuggle up asleep on you but there is no feeling like it. I am a simple ape and probably you are too

Zach Weinersmith@zachweinersmith.bsky.social

I am 100% in favor of people who don't want kids not having kids, but watching your kids play on the beach on a day where all your responsibilities are asleep is a peak human experience of a type you will struggle to get elsewhere.

note: this is up in the Triangle, I'm not driving two hours to try and figure out what's going on.

Sky Marchini@sky.skymarchini.net

"libertarian candidate for state senate in north carolina is currently in a shootout with the cops and live-tweeting his planned suicide", while not exactly surprising, is still a weird thing to read

"Police eventually found him — “He had a firearm and was ordered not to touch it, and he took off running,” Cary police chief Terry Sult said Monday during a news conference — but the incident didn’t end in gunfire."

wral.comNC Senate candidate in custody after hours-long standoff with Cary policeJonathan Miller, a Libertarian running for a state Senate district covering western Wake County, called WRAL during his standoff with police. He spoke about what led to the standoff.

George Pearkes reposted

@deus01.bsky.social

didn't Apollo's chief economist write an article about how no one is making money using AI?

good closing message *HASSETT: THE AFFORDABILITY CRISIS IS A MYTH

*BOFA, BLACKSTONE, CITI, MS SET $63B AI FINANCING WITH BROADCOM *SPV TO LEASE BROADCOM XPU ACCELERATORS TO ANTHROPIC

$JBLU beat guidance but not estimates. @conorsen.bsky.social

$WHR closed today at the lowest level since 2009...and that was *before* a disaster earnings print.

Had missed this yesterday but Lula pulling close to half of the votes from Cury, Caiado, and Santos is WILD. Santos kinda tracks given he was equally hostile to PT and Bolsonaro but the other two endorsed Bolsonaro and were pretty far right for that kind of outcome. Really interesting.

Albert Pinto@70sbachchan.bsky.social

How did Lula turn it around? This is what it looks like when a party goes ALL OUT to try to win ppls votes after PT's apathetic performance in first set of elections 4 weeks ago. 1 Turnout (get demotivated ppl to vote) 2 getting ppl to vote differently (from blank in 1st round, to voting for Lula)

*TRUMP: I LIKE LULA

George Pearkes reposted

Cameron 🇺🇸🗽🦅

@cameroncorduroy.bsky.social

Replying to @cameroncorduroy.bsky.social

LMFAO fairs

$STLD $NUE $CLF all getting hit on this *US, CANADA WORKING ON DEAL TO EASE STEEL, AUTO TARIFFS: RTRS

$DASH in talks to purchase $CART, shares -8%

wsj.comExclusive | DoorDash Is in Advanced Talks to Acquire Delivery Rival InstacartThe deal could be completed as soon as this week, people familiar with the matter said.

I am glad the vibes are putrid for Rs right now but I really, really need everyone to be skeptical of anything involving modeled votes.

AdotSad@adotsad.bsky.social

This guy is hated on ConET right now but I'm pretty sure he's a Republican too lol

George Pearkes reposted

@conorsen.bsky.social

Replying to @conorsen.bsky.social

The chart I’m most interested in seeing at the end of this is the 2018-26 swing by county.

George Pearkes reposted

@conorsen.bsky.social

Replying to @ivanthek.bsky.social

No, it’s SC-specific. Check this out: x.com/burgessev/st...

x.comBurgess Everett (@burgessev) on XSouth Carolina joint endorsement: Former GOP Gov. David Beasley and former Democratic Gov. David Hodges endorse Annie Andrews in SC Senate race https://t.co/FWvHEBGqsc

George Pearkes reposted

@patrickwyman.bsky.social

Replying to @patrickwyman.bsky.social

If you're in there putting in honest work and you post it, I'm gonna tell you that you're a badass and you should feel great about yourself; if you try to use that lift to claim superiority over other people, you're inviting comparisons to serious people, and that's probably not gonna go well

George Pearkes reposted

@patrickwyman.bsky.social

Replying to @patrickwyman.bsky.social

I had a half dozen training partners who could CLEAN 315 (143 kg), not just deadlift it. Shut the fuck up, wannabe alpha male blowhards

George Pearkes reposted

@pogtastic.bsky.social

Replying to @peark.es

I will say "hell yeah great job man" to any one of my friends who lifts this because they're my friends and deserve every opportunity for me to say "hell yeah," but you don't get to call yourself an Elite Alpha Warrior for doing something that anybody can do with several months of work

baby weight

Evan McLaren@evanmclaren.bsky.social

Guys whose whole thing is obsessing relentlessly over the righteousness of patriarchy and aLpHa masculinity are flexing and high-fiving over ... a one-rep deadlift max of 315lbs/143kgs.

I am not exaggerating, I was deadlifting 315 when I was a literal child

Extended stay at in-laws means that we get to dabble in the occasionally PubSub lunch, as a treat.

*MICROSOFT TO OFFER BUYOUTS TO 60,000 WORKERS IN LATEST COST CUT

George Pearkes reposted

@mikenellis.bsky.social

Elon Musk has spent more money on American elections in the last two years than George Soros has in his entire life.

George Pearkes reposted

Metro North Capital

@metronorthcapital.bsky.social

Replying to @sifu.tweety.fish

It’s like $50mm per MW per year on a 90-day cancellable contract vs Neoclouds at $15mm per MW on 5yr firm deal. Elon bought up a ton of GPUs, realized he had no use for them, and then resold them to the market when there was functionally zero available capacity with no lead time