Paul Johnson

Paul Johnson

@paulrjohnson.net

Data Scientist interested in causal inference, machine learning, and statistics | He/Him Website: https://paulrjohnson.net Github: https://github.com/paulj1989

1.9K followers874 following1K posts

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I recently wrote a blog post about the impact of clubs’ financial resources on football outcomes. paulrjohnson.net/blog/2024-10... The TL;DR is that the rich stay winning (shocking, I know), but I thought I’d put together a little thread of some of the findings because Always Be Posting.

paulrjohnson.netAnalysing Money’s Effect on Football Using Multilevel Regression – Paul JohnsonWhat if I told you that we can use statistics to laugh at the silly football teams too?

Paul Johnson reposted

Sick of work this Monday lunchtime? Or perhaps hungover from one too many on the first night of Labour Conference? If so, distract yourself with ✨ 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱-𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 𝗠𝗥𝗣 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 ✨ Full interactive at: jack-bailey.co.uk/ward2024

Just get yourself a dog so you can focus on whether they are gonna eat it or not

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social

A fox keeps shitting on my FT (left on my doorstep overnight) to the point I'm wondering if it's a political statement.

Sucks for Dortmund and even more so for Konstantelias. Poor lad.

Derek Rae@raecomm.bsky.social

Nothing confirmed yet but concern in the BVB camp about the extent of the injury to Konstantelias.

Paul Johnson reposted

In 2026, there is no longer any lab leak hypothesis you can state consistently with the available evidence. Despite this, it has been the dominant media narrative for six years. Read my new data-driven investigation: www.protagonist-science.com/p/biased-med...

protagonist-science.comBiased media coverage and the lab leak theoryGain-of-function fearmongering and blame gets the glitzy NYT visual treatment as Republicans weaponize the lab leak theory again in attacks on Dr. Anthony Fauci

Paul Johnson reposted

I'm sorry... 'Prof Gone'? They made a man's sacking the main news story for weeks as the country went on fire, which might have contributed to his death and 'Prof Gone'? This is the same clique that wept & wailed for a week when we dared mention their dinner party pal was a wife beating nonce.

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Paul Johnson reposted

Cambridge University should have known better, Fleet Street should have known better, the people hungrily absorbing every bit of news about it, making newsrooms feel like they had to keep going with it as a story, should have known better, horrible horrible horrible

Nazi ghost haunted the Clacton by-election

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social

Kai Stephens is running for the British Democrats in Clacton. He was radicalised into far right politics when a teenager & has been active in Patriotic Alternative & Homeland. He promotes violence, such as posting that he wants to see "killing fields" of migrants & minorities, not deportations

Paul Johnson reposted

Paul Johnson reposted

Also, calling a fascist a fascist should not be in question. I'm sorry for such a blazing hot take.

Paul Johnson@paulrjohnson.net

So the BBC is debating whether the words political opponents use to describe Farage and Reform are putting them in danger... But not whether their rhetoric has contributed at all? Cool, cool, cool.

So the BBC is debating whether the words political opponents use to describe Farage and Reform are putting them in danger... But not whether their rhetoric has contributed at all? Cool, cool, cool.

Paul Johnson reposted

I have a new paper on the Gallagher index: the most common measure of electoral disproportionality. We often assume it runs from 0 (perfect 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺) to 1 (perfect 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺). But I show that in most party systems, 1 is not a possible value. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

New PMs call elections when they come in to try and capitalise on a potential bump in popularity. That's a risky game if you've already got a majority, and it would be insane given Labour's majority and current polling. New manager bounce is not that strong!

Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social

So unwritten that of the five prime ministers to inherit a majority in “mid-term”, only one of them called an election before its due date. Why are some political journalists so uninterested in history?

None of this should be hard for a political journalist to reason out. And it would be great if more effort was made to make clear governing parties replacing their leaders (and therefore putting a new PM in) is how the system is supposed to work.

There is nothing and no one that can destroy the vibes of the World Cup. Fifa have tried their hardest to ruin it but it's still the World Cup.

Mike Goodman@themlg.bsky.social

Related to my field, there are a whole bunch of BkueSky posters who were sure the World Cup was going to be a massive failure with empty stadiums and massive disinterest. And, uh, those folks are pretty quiet now.

Paul Johnson reposted

starmer era felt like all the analytics nerds saying "this is so dumb" while the sporting director kept leaking to supportive journalists that he was a data genius for signing players who overperformed their xG and made lots of tackles.

and the story with starmer (which may or may not be applicable elsewhere) is less "polling-driven" than our old favourite: bad use of analytics.

My partner, a casual fan and not ball knower, said she learned more about football from those short explainers Emma Hayes gave during the England game last night than from anything else she has ever seen on TV. It's not just the immense knowledge of the game, it was how easy she made it for others.

emma hayes is being wasted managing them. get her on tv full time.

Paul Johnson reposted

I think it's a legitimate question whether fixing offside is better than playing four quarters is bad. But of course you could just fix offside and not play four quarters, so you know, swings and roundabouts but I am *loving* how much less refchat there is at this World Cup thanks to technology

nmwass5.bsky.social@nmwass5.bsky.social

@michaelcaley.bsky.social Watching the highlights of COL-UZB (the awesome first goal from Muñoz) and I think I have come to the anti-CW conclusion that automated offside and the fresher legs from mid-half breaks has done more to improve the games than the hydration breaks have done to lessen it.

Paul Johnson reposted

i love the Chopped dynamic in international soccer. congratulations, your country produced three world-class right backs and no strikers. go make a meal with it.

The longer we keep kicking the can down the road on this, the worse it gets. Punish everyone involved.

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social

Everyone on X and elsewhere who called for a violent response should be charged with incitement. Everyone involved in the pogrom should be locked up with exemplary sentences. Govt should make it clear that will be the response in future anywhere else. Enough.

Paul Johnson reposted

It just feels absolutely mad to me that we're being asked to believe the police would have treated that poor boy any better if he were black