Joel Suss

Victorian era bootmakers have a surprising amount to say about technological disruption in the AI age as.ft.com/r/4a8bd4a9-c...

How do workers adapt when technology transforms an industry? Research by Hillary Vipond, III Visiting Fellow & @afsee-lse.bsky.social fellow, was featured in a @financialtimes.com article by @joelsuss.ft.com, examining the effects of mechanisation in bootmaking. www.ft.com/content/bf0a...

Join @joelsuss.ft.com for a seminar on new methods for measuring wealth inequality at local and neighbourhood levels across the United States. 📅 29 September 🎟️ Register: buff.ly/sswN9Km

The BoE, HMT, DMO decision to unwind quantatitive easing completely is NOT something to get worked up by, however tempting. 1) This was always the intention (see Mervyn King 2009) 2) It has tiny fiscal effects (nothing like George Osborne's 2012 gambit, which ONS stopped after my complaints).

Three reasons why the Fed will/should raise rates on Wednesday: 1. core PCE inflation has been trending higher for some time and the Aug CPI release suggests more to come 2. financial conditions are loose 3. household inflation expectations are high and rising My take: as.ft.com/r/8db4741a-0...

The Nigel Farage and Reform foreign donations scandal excluded from all but one national newspaper front page this morning. No sign of it at all on the front pages of the two papers which splashed the polls secretly funded by a Reform donor earlier this year

Incredible undercover work here!

The legwork, and the sting, which seems to have caught out James Orr, Nigel Farage and Reform-UK was carried out by Verbatim Investigations who have dropped their own take on the story.

James Orr: Reform’s head of policy, Cambridge theologian, architect of the new British right. Our profile for @ftweekend.com looks at his links to the Maga movement, Silicon Valley & European populists, and his life as a Cambridge lecturer with @ramshodgson.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/c2d0...

As honoured as I am to see that The Times has picked up my Chagos article practically *word for word*, including my hard-gotten quotes, I’d prefer some credit — or for everyone to read my original FT piece! free link to read the evidently enviable article below (cheaper than a Times sub!) 🌴

US corporate profits have hit a record high while employees’ share has fallen to 60 per cent, the lowest since the 1950s. "The gains that the top is seeing far, far, far outpace the gains — if any — that the bottom is seeing," says a policy adviser. Read the story on #FTEdit 👉 ft.trib.al/0AG2YAu

New from me: Until recently, the gap between comfortably-off and just-getting-started could plausibly be crossed in a decade or two of hard work. Growth in asset prices means that’s no longer true: even a lifetime of striving doesn’t offer a realistic prospect of feeling you’ve “made it”.

GREG IP: “.. it feels like he’s winging it.” @wsj.com

Warsh's ban on forward guidance is a legitimate policy choice. The problem is that his chosen justification for it is absolute nonsense.

Nice figure on the Warsh effect -- the gap between the 30yr and 2yr Treasury shot up as.ft.com/r/7d1c8d80-2...

FT's Robert Armstrong: Warsh’s description of his communications policy is nonsense. Unless Warsh (and the rest of us) get lucky, this will become a bigger problem over time. Warsh’s forward guidance omertà: I don’t believe it can last for ever. www.ft.com/content/fe3f...

Silicon Warsh — our AI version of the real Kevin Warsh — has more credibility Here’s what Silicon Warsh said during fake FOMC meeting: “The Committee needs to demonstrate, through action not rhetoric, its resolve to deliver on price stability.” as.ft.com/r/b843f13d-5... The LLM FOMC votes to raise

Chalk this one up to the humans! AI not yet our overlords ...

www.ft.com/content/76b4...

Kevin Warsh's Fed meets today to decide on rates, but the new chair has been tight-lipped, giving no signal on direction Silicon Warsh, on the other hand, loves to talk. At @alphaville.ft.com, I used LLMs to simulate the FOMC. The result: a unanimous vote to raise rates www.ft.com/content/76b4...

I've written an op-ed in the @financialtimes.com today where I argue that we should talk more about consumption tax, and in particular the need to reform UK VAT It can be made more efficient and progressive while also raising much needed revenue as.ft.com/r/66472205-f...

At dinner before day one of his first meeting as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh told his 18 colleagues he was launching five task forces to rethink how the Fed reads the economy. Chris Waller asked what the point was. Name who's on them, he said, and I'll tell you what they'll say.

Since Kevin Warsh boasted about how volatility, bond yields and inflation expectations had fallen since he was sworn in... ... they have all reversed Perhaps, not such a genius

I've written about the troubling, decades-long decoupling of pay & productivity growth The textbook says these should grow together, but reality - far from perfect competition - means capital has captured more of the economic fruits AI risks widening the gap Link 👉 as.ft.com/r/a188bb54-b...

If you look closely, there’s some sort of pattern here. www.ft.com/content/9741...

1/7 FT: "According to economic theory, productivity and real wages should grow in tandem, with the benefits of new technology being shared with the workers who produce the stuff. But in the US, Europe and Japan, pay growth has decoupled from... www.ft.com/content/9741...

Why wages and productivity look set to diverge further ft.trib.al/PrTmG3v

Having spent a very happy 18 months sinking into its 3,000 pages, I have written about why reading Proust is essential in the 21st century as.ft.com/r/32995bbf-8...

@joelsuss.ft.com : The median US household now sees long-run inflation to be 3.5 per cent, against an average of 2.5 per cent from 2015 through 2019. (“Long-run” is expected annual inflation in five years’ time.) (1/2)

A betting account in the name of George Cottrell, the convicted fraudster who bankrolled Nigel Farage, received almost $9mn in cryptocurrency from unidentified sources while he was providing gifts to the Reform UK leader great work from @annasophiegross.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/b74c...

Household inflation expectations in the US are worryingly high In surveys & social media, people expect higher inflation in the long term. The market is more sanguine, but it's household behaviour that matters Warsh's Fed risks being all talk and no action on rates as.ft.com/r/bfb57ad3-6...

@joelsuss.ft.com at FT: Partial fiscal devolution would bring some revenue autonomy, further encouraging experimentation and healthy competition, but also strengthening local accountability. (1/3)

What a weird metaphor to choose. I'm no electrician but isn't a circuit breaker the thing that causes all the lights to go out?

With the Andy Burnham era beginning, I argue that the new PM should go for a devolution 'big bang' This could help solve two big problems: low productivity in the public sector and in the UK's second-tier cities My Free Lunch column: as.ft.com/r/c9866d20-9...

Excellent Free Lunch by @joelsuss.ft.com this:

I've written about the Fed and BoE's trust deficit for the @financialtimes.com central banks newsletter A growing % of households in US and UK are 'de-anchored', expecting far higher inflation in long run. Low levels of trust are an important reason why as.ft.com/r/99d85a19-0...

wrote for the magazine about the open source software that underpins our digital lives, how it is being upended by AI code tools, and about maintainers as.ft.com/r/b7f62212-9...

🤖 Can an AI ‘superforecaster’ beat the market? 🤖 When it comes to predicting Fed decisions, the AI does not (yet) have an edge as.ft.com/r/aded4aa2-4...

🚨NHS hospitals have admitted to a litany of errors in the data behind a headline claim about the success of the controversial £330mn Palantir contract after a @financialtimes.com investigation found dozens of irregularities. Scoop w/ @laurahughesft.bsky.social as.ft.com/r/7ab92d75-3...

💡Does the UK lose its best ideas to America? New data suggests the bigger challenge is much closer to home: scaling spinouts from outside Oxford and Cambridge. Enjoyed digging into the data with the help of @paulswinney.bsky.social for @alphaville.ft.com Full story here: as.ft.com/r/d60411f3-9...

It's great that the UK govt is looking to encourage solar panels, heat pumps and batteries, but there's got to be a more direct and effective way than this? as.ft.com/r/373ea167-a... UK government to subsidise bank loans for green home improvements

My homage to Alan Greenspan’s Fedspeak in this weekend’s @financialtimes.com Where I consider also the prospects of Kevin Warsh’s desire to turn back the clock on Fed comms as.ft.com/r/7ee6eb0f-0...

I think we just passed oops.

We hear a lot about how AI promises, or threatens, to transform the world of work. But for that to happen companies will actually need to use the tech -- so far, adoption is very low @sarahoconnorft.ft.com & I look at why in the @financialtimes.com AI shift newsletter --> as.ft.com/r/bf9e25ce-0...