Chris Giles

Kevin Warsh wants money to play a bigger part in monetary policy It wasn't half bad after the pandemic as an early warning Is it time for monetarism to stage a comeback? www.ft.com/content/a7de...

New Liz Truss book doesn't disappoint. Thrust is blaming the Bank of England for the Sept 2022 market fallout, especially its quantitative tightening announcement the day before the mini-budget. She claims that she and Kwarteng were "caught off-guard", blindsided by the BoE's announcement.

Caught red handed I expected more of someone who used to follow me on Twitter

Maybe read the 1 September notice before posting. The £80bn figure is there along with a 12 month timescale. Full schedule not there, true, but that was not Truss’s allegation

This is very good

France is burning; the US doesn’t promise prudence and still borrows more than expected: Italy has a chronic debt problem. So I asked which G7 country is the profligacy poster child (Extensive use of 🦔 charts - the king of charts) as.ft.com/r/85dfdf71-3...

Don't eff it up is always the first thing to consuder. You don't want @katie0martin.ft.com saying WTF after the event! And she will

This money @chrisgiles.ft.com has cheered me up no end with this well-researched and well-argued piece about the future of European gas prices. www.ft.com/content/31df... #ReasonsToBeCheerful

POD O CLOCK me + @chrisgiles.ft.com on the forthcoming UK Budget. Short version: Good luck, and don't eff it up. The mission is NOT to spook the horses. www.ft.com/content/50be...

For all the chart pedants in my timeline.... ... I also like this chart and it is one I did myself (the FT calculations in the footer are quite extensive)

You should never argue with a price, but.... The European (EU and UK) gas crisis that has tripled prices this year is not that bad... Storage is at normal levels relative to consumption. So much other evidence in my piece www.ft.com/content/31df...

Look again. It is about the UK income tax system

Oh FFS We went through this years ago. Maybe British nationals are retiring so this is isn’t surprising.

The global economy is hotter than expected on inflation and growth The best thing about the IMF's forecasts is looking at how they change. www.ft.com/content/183a...

Interesting lack of Green Party presence at a polling station in Holborn &St Pancras this morning. Clearly they haven’t got much of a ground game, despite the deluge of leaflets

I was once asked to go into the OBR and discuss the EFO. They thought I was being provocative saying it needed to be slimmed by 80% I was being serious

I think we ought to know what the BoE has against the mighty kingfisher… The wildlife winners set to appear on your banknotes revealed www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... #Britishbanknotes

Sensible advice as ever from @chrisgiles.ft.com, particularly to the OBR to focus on fiscal sustainability rather than "fiscal headroom". Too much time is wasted on second guessing the OBR. The Chancellor's time is better spent focusing on the fiscal substance.

Budgets are all about judgments, not fancy forecasting equations. These are (my view) of the sensible judgments the OBR and Chancellor Healey need to make later this month www.ft.com/content/b07b...

Excellent chart-filled exploration of why govt bond yields have risen this year, from @chrisgiles.ft.com www.ft.com/content/a616...

My newsletter asks and answers the question: why are bond yields so high? There are many charts.... www.ft.com/content/a616...

I’ve had this original Steve Bell cartoon on my wall for almost 30 years… … hadn’t realised how ironically wrong it is until now

Central banks always think interest rate rates operate on demand. But what if tighter policy makes people want to work more? That labour supply effect can be large. People with high debts worked more when Australia tightened, for example My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/a060...

Important to note that ONS is now doing the right thing and trying to find the truth. This is nothing like the 2010s when it actively sought not to change stats (RPI) that it knew were wrong

After the ONS cast all my article about the UK productivity puzzle onto the scrap heap, it has now downgraded all articles on the UK’s weak jobs recovery after Covid to junk too…. 😖 www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...

Reasons to be a little cheerful from @chrisgiles.ft.com. The piece also contains the comforting line ‘Britain is internationally far less useless than it appeared.’! www.ft.com/content/c819...

Rarely am I able to recommend an FT column that ends with "happy days" for the UK - but @chrisgiles.ft.com came through for us with this www.ft.com/content/c819...

Had some fun talking to @timharford.ft.com on More or Less about whether people not at home might actually be on holiday www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

With Kevin Warsh boycotting the dot plot, it must be dying... My newsletter asks whether we should mourn? Probably not, but not because it locks people into their forecasts - it doesn't www.ft.com/content/ba73...

Was it though? Sounds awfully like the bores of Piddington

#WeekendWatching 📺 Did you miss our webinar on measuring #productivity yesterday? Watch it back here: A stellar panel with with a stellar chair: James Benford, @teraallas.bsky.social, Richard Hughes, and @chrisgiles.ft.com ⬇️ niesr.ac.uk/event/uks-pr...

Continuation of a long-term trend

And on 1), the fact that it was the prior intention means it's important to follow through, absent some v good reason, to avoid validating the suspicion that QE was a permanent monetary financing.