Nick Macpherson

Sensible advice as ever from @chrisgiles.ft.com, particularly to the OBR to focus on fiscal sustainability rather than "fiscal headroom". Too much time is wasted on second guessing the OBR. The Chancellor's time is better spent focusing on the fiscal substance.

The Treasury will be well pleased with the commitment to abolish the triple lock, restore a health and care levy and to begin a serious debate on our relations with the EU. It will be nervous about social care - it always is - but will recognise that something has to give. #soundmoney #freetrade

Absolutely right. Mr Burnham must run Britain just like Sir Jim Ratcliffe has run Manchester United. Like Britain, ManU was once a proud global giant. But like the UK, the club had entered a lengthy period of stagnation. Since Ratcliffe took over at Man Utd this once proud club has oh wait

Who'd be a forecaster? Just as the OBR revised down the trend rate of productivity growth, it appears to have picked up. A reminder of the resilience of the UK economy. UK finally showing signs of productivity boost, say economists - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT

Does the Treasury deserve its reputation for holding back the British economy? My new article in The Political Quarterly uses the histories of Concorde and civil nuclear power to challenge common arguments about the Treasury, industrial strategy, and state capacity. 🧵

Scotland raised its top income tax rate to 48% to make the rich pay more. New HMRC data suggests the result may have been the opposite: Scotland collected about £22m less. We can't be sure, but Scotland may have fallen over the Laffer curve. 🧵:

The House of Lords Constitution Committee is starting a wide-ranging inquiry into strengthening our constitutional safeguards - as proposed by (Lord) Peter Hennessy. Look East, look West, and see the urgency. Written evidence requested by 28th of September. committees.parliament.uk/committee/17...

This was a really moving interview. We're enormously proud of Peter at Queen Mary. He's been a lone voice for a particular kind of virtue in public life: not as something we admire in ourselves, but as something we practice towards others - and especially our opponents. And he really embodies that.

Excellent paper. Well worth a read. My only worry is, given the ever increasing proportion of the tax take accounted for by the NHS, triple lock pension and debt interest, whether there will be the resources to fund it.

@nickmacpherson.bsky.social

Join us on 8 July when Angela Rayner, Kim McGuinness, Lord Gove, @nickmacpherson.bsky.social & Ed Balls will launch a @harvardbizgov.bsky.social @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social paper: 'Regional Growth Two Years In' thestrandgroup.kcl.ac.uk/event/region...

In a sane world, all factors of production including land would be taxed to keep marginal tax rates low. Lloyd George took on the Lords in the People's Budget to get a Land Tax on the statute book. Several years, elections & a world war later he repealed the tax after raising virtually no revenue.

Breaking news: crime not rising www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

@ciaranm.bsky.social was my private secretary at HM Treasury before going on to be the Cabinet Secretary's right hand man. I can confirm he is right on this, as he invariably is on everything else. #badbusiness

This paper represents a small but deeply impressive and genuinely important achievement by the much maligned British state in what is probably the most important global issue of our era. Hear me out ( 🧵) 1/ www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-eva...

💯 this from @nickmacpherson.bsky.social

I’m teaching a class on lobbying for future policymakers on Monday. Hard to do better than this sensational oped from @nickmacpherson.bsky.social about money in UK politics and the transition from big banks to big tech—but the song remains the same. And the loser is public trust in government.

Counting the cost of money in politics ft.trib.al/sAx2W1p | opinion

My thoughts on the events of this week for tomorrow's FT. url.uk.m.mimecastprotect.com/s/YlnhCgZmgt...

Alistair Darling and the official Treasury were always aware that investment banks had an inside track to Number 10. But the brazen nature of that inside track is rather breath-taking.

I commend this review which I carried out in 2013. The recommendations remain relevant today. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7f09...

The only way to raise serious revenue is to raise a tax which everybody pays. Raising a tax which someone else pays rarely raises the revenue needed and creates endless pressure from special interest groups. Compare and contrast Mr Osborne's 2 1/2% VAT increase with his pasty tax. #omnishambles

Nikolaus Pevsner famously described the demolition of Sir John Soane's Bank of England, as "the greatest architectural crime in the City of London of the twentieth century". Here is Project Soane's initial recreation of parts of it. @nickmacpherson.bsky.social youtu.be/TlSdcXIqufQ?...

Case study week on the 'Chancellors and the Treasury' module on @strandgroup.bsky.social MA Government Studies - Expert advisers @nickmacpherson.bsky.social @officialedballs.bsky.social prep students before they re-enact the day UK left the ERM in Sep 1992, a historic and chaotic 24 hours

2 thoughts on the spending review. 1. Raising public service productivity is more important than ever. 2. 15 years of prioritising the NHS, education and "triple lock" (and now defence) by cutting all other programmes, in particular the home office and justice) is no longer sustainable. #soundmoney

Sound economic analysis from the ever insightful @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social. #freetrade www.thetimes.com/article/06e1...

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My Trade Secrets response to the tariffs. Bad news: these tariffs cd be worse than the 1930s & the Republicans are inflicting their deep pathology on the world. Good news: this is as yet a US trade war, not a world trade war. Others can resist following Trump's crazy road. First 300 clicks free.

The biggest challenge for the Chancellor is delivering the revenue forecast. Despite all the tax increases since Labour last left office, the tax burden only rose by 2.1 per cent of GDP in 15 years. Today's forecast assumes a similar rise in just 5 years. If only raising revenue was that easy...

Debt service costs are set to rise from £105.2bn to £131.6bn over the next 5 years, a growth rate significantly ahead of spending on public services and welfare. a reminder that the Chancellor is right to prioritise fiscal consolidation. #soundmoney

Good to know Canada is in safe hands. If ever someone was well qualified to deal with the extraordinary challenges Britain's most reliable and loyak ally faces, it's my old friend Dr Carney. #freetrade

Love the way no one over here paid any attention to Australia when a massive Chinese warship started live-firing off its coast, but some random influencer no one’s ever heard of steals a baby wombat and our media can’t get enough 😀😬

My book review for tomorrow's FT. www.ft.com/content/c741...

Freedom and democracy are always worth fighting for. Slava Ukraini.

Happy Brexit Day (2). Why did immigration *increase* after Brexit, and what do w know about the economic and the labour market impacts? My National Institute Economic Review article (open access). www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

UK 10 year bond yields have risen 14 basis points in the last month. Germany's have risen by 30 bp and the USA's by 21 bp, confirming both the fickleness of markets and the media. #soundmoney

An interesting battle is playing out between the Bank of England and the market as to who determines the interest rate mortgage holders and businesses pay. At the moment, the market is winning. #soundmoney

Partnerships with HM Treasury & DBT mean our 'Chancellors & Treasury' & 'History of Civil Service' students had classes in the Old Chancellor's Office & the Old Admiralty Building with DBT perm sec Gareth Davies ℹ️ www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr... @nickmacpherson.bsky.social @policyatkings.bsky.social

I commend John Kingman's article on how to get the economy growing. In short, be bolder on planning, infrastructure, university reform and social housing.

Excellent case studies on the IMF & ERM crises on our 'Chancellors & the Treasury' module Thanks to practitioner experts Ed Balls, Catherine Macleod, @nickmacpherson.bsky.social, & Mario Pisani The module is part of MA Government Studies: www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr... @policyatkings.bsky.social

I understand why inheritance tax is unpopular. But 100%IHT relief encourages asset hoarding until death: it encourages inefficiency and is a barrier to productivity growth.

Not altogether surprising given uncertainty around the US election but a reminder that investors in UK gilts expect a return and demand has its limits. #soundmoney

The Budget is a brave attempt to deal with HMG's inheritance but contains two vulnerabilities. Has the Chancellor tightened policy enough? If not, she may require a 2nd bite. And will the market absorb the extra borrowing? Early days but the recent rise in gilt yields is not encouraging. #soundmoney

The UK's baby bust continues - births in England and Wales in 2023 fell below 600,000, and the total fertility rate fell to 1.44 - lowest rate on record. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...