lunaria/sapphire

this took way too long but I've finally released my Senate forecast!! Read about it here: snoutcounter.works/posts/2026-s...

🧵/ In principle, 74% of Britons favour water companies being nationalised and run in the public sector, as the government ponders the future of the water industry However, a new study reveals that support for nationalisation is dependent on it not bringing additional personal costs

You poll Maine, Marist, now a bunch of respected normie election analysts are dragging your ass Play stupid games, win stupid prizes; should have just polled South Carolina!

Yes well it does require things like “empathy” and possessing a basic understanding that all of our lives are interconnected

Marist Poll of Maine Senate is Jackson +2 with LV +9 with RV Gov is tied with LV 44-44. but LV is Pingree+11 GCB is D+5 with LV and over D+10 with RV

Bay Area residents take 1M+ trips every weekday on our four largest transit systems — to get to work, school & everywhere in between. We can’t let devastating cuts take that away. I’m voting YES on the Regional Transit Measure to keep our region moving. www.sfgate.com/news/bayarea...

Marist poll dropping in a minute!

This summer, we banned low-rent poll aggregation engagement farms from our Discord server. Didn’t need any further examples to back us up, but we sure got one tonight.

I would really love if we could sponsor a poll, since it seems like everyone else has no interest in polling a week out. The only problem? It's extremely expensive, because of response rates being so low. I wouldn't know the exact figure, but it would likely be thousands of dollars to sponsor a poll

Lula's victory in Brazil means a lot to a ton of people in the country, including transgender people. So when Lula won, it was a major moment of celebration when he turned to kiss a popular transgender lawmaker on the cheek. Subscribe to support our journalism.

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In one day, two politicians - Bolsonaro in Brazil and Vucic in Serbia - with ties to Trump have lost surprise elections thanks to high turnout. The rise of the international far-right is not inevitable.

The Student List had no party machinery. It operated through university assemblies, protests and hiking between cities & towns. They had 2% of national TV political advertising airtime vs 93% for Vučić. This is one of the most remarkable grassroots democratic victories in modern European history.

The size of the 'blue wave' isn't just about how far Dems get in the. U.S. House. There are hundreds of local offices that could flip if Dems have a great night—attorneys general, county governments, utility commissions, school boards. Lots to peruse on my guide to 670 items to watch on Nov. 3!

Ok. That was fun. Next stop. Israel's elections on Tuesday. Then we got U.S. midterms and then we have elections in Spain.

The global pro-democracy, anti-fascist movement just notched two major wins today, after Students List in Serbia ousted strongman Aleksandar Vučić and Brazilian President Lula defeated the son of the man behind Brazil’s Jan 6 to win reelection! In 9 days, U.S. next!

Lula vows to regulate Meta in his victory speech

We're gonna need our version of Lula's Army here in the US lol

Oakland, California is the center of the world

Lula Goes HARD

I am dying at @pokijaci.bsky.social 's fake poll coming true

(inhales before rting a lot of posts after leaving my bluesky at home)

We have near final results from Brazil, 99.8% reporting: Lula 51.76% Bolsonaro 48.24% In 2022, Lula beat Bolsonaro's father by 1.8%; so he has nearly doubled his lead. Also, if you followed this thread & enjoyed it... be sure to follow me: I'll be tracking 700 US elections at once in 9 days!

Vote no on Prop 45 btw

America next

Bolsonaro, Trump, and Netanyahu all in prison by the end of the decade 🙏

Best day for democracy worldwide in quite some time: Brazil’s center-left president won the runoff in an upset, blocking the far-right from gaining unified power. Serbia’s right-wing authoritarian government finally lost control of parliament after more than a decade in power

He flipped New York!

In 2022 Lula won Sao Paulo but lost Rio and Brasilia. He gained ground in all 3 cities this year! Enough that he managed to flip Rio

Prediction markets are about as accurate as just asking some people what they think, in other words, it isn't really that accurate! Public opinion frequently gets things wrong, so that leads to these prediction markets doing the same thing. Shoutout anyone who didn't sell out

Brazil elected Lula again tonight. Poll averages appear to have had Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro effectively tied, maybe Bolsonaro up 1 on Lula — so not sure why the markets had this race at 80-20 Bolsonaro. Markets might miss big in the U.S. midterms in 9 days too.

Chicago beating DC on having the wokest Brazilians

Congrats to Lula on overcoming Mark Zuckerberg and Donald Trump to defeat Hospital Pervert Jr., even as his opposition literally blocked off roads and turned off bus service during election day. Fascists are scary but they are always, 100% of the time, ultimately gigantic fucking losers.

Everyone thought Lula was cooked, hopeless. Then he bought a phone and started posting and now he's gonna get a 4th term. The lesson is to never stop posting.

Its like this man was born with aura

Lula winning is great for the planet, great for Brazil, and great for people who aren't revanchist assholes everywhere in the world, but let's not forget that it's also going to make some of the worst people on Earth extremely sad and mad. We should enjoy that, as a little treat.

Angie Nixon I need you to make every republican and reactionary centrist democrat cry

YOU CANNOT SILENCE THE PEOPLE AND THE GREATEST POLITICAL LEADER IN THE HISTORY OF BRAZIL

Lula won by a larger margin against Flavio Bolsonaro than he did against Bolsonaro Sr 2022 2nd Round: 🔴Lula: 50.9% 🔵Bolsonaro: 49.1% 2026 2nd Round: 🔴Lula: 51.75% 🔵Bolsonaro: 48.25%

Less beautiful when you look at comparisons to 2022. But Lula is on track to win by a larger margin. He has seemingly done better in the big cities.

What a beautiful map electomaps.com.br/segundo-turn...

This thread comes to a close... ... as we now have a final result. Let the records show that, with 92% of the vote countywide, Lula is up 3.3%. (Can he end up doubling his 2022 margin?)