Rob Johns

Rob Johns

@robjohns75.bsky.social

Some public opinion

2.3K followers710 following287 posts

Rob Johns
@robjohns75.bsky.social

However often he naps at work, however bruised his hands, however chaotic his speeches, nothing ages Donald Trump as much as his obsession with IQ.

Rob Johns reposted

Danbischof
@danbischof.bsky.social

We're hiring across Political Science at the department of political science @uni-muenster.de : 3 postdocs, a doctoral position and a research associate position, spanning methods, democracy and sustainability. Details and deadlines below. Please share widely; questions welcome!

Rob Johns reposted

Brian J. Phillips
@brianjphillips.bsky.social

Come work with us! The Department of Government at the University of Essex has 2 fully-funded PhD positions (to write a PhD) on democracy and violence starting January 2027. Deadline 11 November. Our broader network has more positions🧵 vacancies.essex.ac.uk/tlive_webrec...

vacancies.essex.ac.ukJob profileApplicants must comply with the MSCA Doctoral Networks mobility requirements: must not have resided or carried out their main activity (work, studies, etc.) in the UK for more than 12 months in the 36 months immediately before their recruitment date; eligibility will be checked during recruitment.

Rob Johns reposted

Ana Catalano Weeks
@anacweeks.bsky.social

📢 I am recruiting 2 fully funded PhD students to join my UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship, “Invisible Burdens, Visible Gaps: The Mental Load and Gendered Citizenship” @uniofbath.bsky.social ! 🌍 Intl applications welcome 📅 Deadline: 1/12/26, for Oct 27 start www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

findaphd.comInvisible Burdens, Visible Gaps: The Mental Load and Gendered Citizenship at University of Bath on FindAPhD.comPhD Project - Invisible Burdens, Visible Gaps: The Mental Load and Gendered Citizenship at University of Bath, listed on FindAPhD.com
Rob Johns
@robjohns75.bsky.social

Nothing captures it as vividly as the second sentence here.

Helen Barnard@helenbarnard.bsky.social

2. In recent years the tax burden has increased on high earners and decreased on middle earners. We have a state as big as Denmark's but tax people on middle incomes lower than in the US. That flips when you get to higher middle earners - around £60k.

Rob Johns
@robjohns75.bsky.social

Now topical! @psaepop.bsky.social

Rob Johns@robjohns75.bsky.social

Have compiled a Beatles playlist in honour of the @psaepop.bsky.social visit to Liverpool: Split Ticket to Ride Let It BESIP Electoral Roll Over Beethoven The Ballot of John Curtice and Yo-co-authors (More Funding) From Me to You(Gov) I Saw (Spence-)Her Standing There (and Beating Matt Goodwin)

Rob Johns reposted

Alex Coppock
@aecoppock.bsky.social

Just an enormous difference in Russian support for the war when comparing direct question estimates with experiments from list experiments. Also, peep those CIs! sensitivity bias has to be HUGE (which it apparently is in this case) to be detected with Direct - List

Georgy Tarasenko@tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social

Every wave after that splits. Direct support holds at ~75%. Indirect support drops to 44–58%. The gap runs from 16 to 30 percentage points.

Rob Johns
@robjohns75.bsky.social

I’ve seen a version of this presented at a conference and so I know that it’s a) very good and b) many miles up the street of my @essexsummerschool.bsky.social students on the Designing & Analysing Surveys class.

Essex Summer School in Social Science Data Analysis@essexsummerschool.bsky.social

📌 TODAY 📌 @benlauderdale.bsky.social presents "Studying Individual-Level Attitudes Towards Important Problems Using Pairwise Comparisons" 📆 Wednesday 22 July, 6:30 pm 📍 EBS 2.2. 💻 Free webinar registation ▶ essex-university.zoom.us/s/95426008058 #ESS2026 #HaroldClarkeSpeakerSeries

Rob Johns reposted

Josh Gabbatiss
@joshgabbatiss.bsky.social

As Ed Miliband leaves his post as energy and net-zero secretary, a final tally: There have been an incredible 251 newspaper editorials attacking him and his approach to net-zero since the start of 2024 That amounts to two editorials a week, mainly in the Sun, Daily Mail, Times and Daily Telegraph.

Rob Johns
@robjohns75.bsky.social

Always nice to see a sprawling literature brought to order.

Politics_Oxford@politicsoxford.bsky.social

New paper in the European Journal of Political Research, co-authored by DPIR’s @profjanegreen.bsky.social:  politicians rarely change people’s views on immigration, but they can shape how important the issue feels—and whether those views affect voting and behaviour: https://f.mtr.cool/myfmjwimmj

Rob Johns
@robjohns75.bsky.social

I thought Keir Starmer might need some cheering up and so here's a graph which shows his personal popularity above a regression line. Main message: while he may have the record for the lowest approval ratings ever, that's got a fair bit to do with the unpopularity of his party.

View full thread
Rob Johns
@robjohns75.bsky.social

Through little fault of Starmer's, this is an era in which the erstwhile 'big two' (so far the only providers of post-war PMs) are historically unpopular. Since it was those parties' dwindling bands of loyalists that kept PM approval afloat, no surprise that those ratings are in secular decline.

Rob Johns
@robjohns75.bsky.social

Thanks to @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social for the excellent time series, and thanks in advance to anyone keen enough on such things to consider buying the book -- the latest edition of the David Denver-inaugurated Elections & Voters in Britain -- in which the graph and more of its kind might end up.

Rob Johns
@robjohns75.bsky.social

I thought Keir Starmer might need some cheering up and so here's a graph which shows his personal popularity above a regression line. Main message: while he may have the record for the lowest approval ratings ever, that's got a fair bit to do with the unpopularity of his party.

Rob Johns
@robjohns75.bsky.social

Of course, you might say "but Labour was so unpopular *because* he was the leader". Then I'd say "well, there's something in that, but generally a personality-obsessed media overestimate the leader-->party evaluations bit and underestimate how hard it is for leaders to transcend unpopular parties".

Rob Johns reposted

Rob Ford
@robfordmancs.bsky.social

This is a big problem. If the last information people receive is always “numbers went up” because “numbers went down” is never reported we shouldn’t be surprised that perceptions about immigration end up so skewed. Media should take some responsibility here - this is a salient and polarising issue.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social

Revealed preferences suggest this 37% drop in small boat nunbers (first two quarters) is treated as ×10-x50 times less newsworthy than a 37% increase has been. Given high salience of the issue, should broadcasters try to check/balance that instinct?

Rob Johns
@robjohns75.bsky.social

The headline should have read “Doku criticised by one person, who has since basically retracted that attack, while being backed by many, many others”. But it didn’t. (I suppose we should be grateful it didn’t say ‘slammed’.) www.bbc.co.uk/sport/footba...

bbc.co.ukWorld Cup 2026: Jeremy Doku criticised over plan to leave Belgium camp for birth of childWinger Jeremy Doku is criticised for saying he wants to leave Belgium's World Cup camp to be with his wife when she gives birth to their first child.

Rob Johns reposted

Steve Yates
@yatesyman.bsky.social

This story currently leads BBC Scotland. But down here in London you have to scroll all the way down past the London news, the World Cup, whatever the BBC calls its Reels equivalent, more World Cup, weekend picks and 'lazy summer recipes' to the 'around the UK' to see it

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social

Four people in hospital after knife attacks in Edinburgh. An arrest made. BBC report say man shouted about "protecting the country". Sone signs the attacks near a mosque at petrol station & pizzeria may have had anti-Muslim or anti-migrant/minority motives (tbc) www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.ukFour in hospital after bare-chested man with weapon roams around EdinburghA man was seen battering the door of a pizzeria as members of the public run away on Friday night.

Rob Johns reposted

Jac Larner
@jaclarner.bsky.social

Come join us next Tuesday for new analysis on how Wales has changed in the 10 years since the Eu Referendum 👇

Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru@walesgovernance.bsky.social

🎙️DIGWYDDIAD | EVENT - 23/06/2026 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇬🇧🇪🇺 Degawd ers Refferendwm am adael yr Undeb Ewropeaidd | A Decade on from the EU Referendum Ymunwch â ni i wythnos nesaf i glywed ein hymchwil diweddaraf ar #Cymru ôl-Brecsit | Join us to hear our research on post-Brexit #Wales. www.eventbrite.com/e/1991988577...

eventbrite.comWales and the EU Referendum: A Decade OnDegawd ers Refferendwm am adael yr Undeb Ewropeaidd

Rob Johns reposted

Tim Bale
@timbale.bsky.social

"Why adopting Reform-lite rhetoric or intensifying enforcement measures rarely resolves the political problem for centre-left parties: the goalposts constantly move because the politics is not designed to produce resolution. It is designed to sustain a permanent sense of crisis and cultural threat."

blogs.lse.ac.ukWhy public attitudes to immigration don’t respond to falling migration | LSE British PoliticsMigration numbers are falling, but attitudes towards immigration are hardening. That's because immigration concerns are a symbol for other anxieties.
Rob Johns
@robjohns75.bsky.social

Planning to design and analyse a survey despite not having taken a class like mine below on Designing & Analysing Surveys? You’re the social science equivalent of those people who need rescuing by helicopter from Snowdon having gone up in flip flops with only a light sweater and a bag of Maltesers.

Essex Summer School in Social Science Data Analysis@essexsummerschool.bsky.social

Check out the sequence of courses for survey research at @essexsummerschool.bsky.social, from questionnaire design and measurement to survey experiments and advanced scaling methods. More information ➡️ essexsummerschool.com/course/ess-2... and individual descriptions in the comments to the post ⬇️

Rob Johns
@robjohns75.bsky.social

Jobs!

Dr Andrew S. Roe-Crines 🏳️‍🌈@andrewcrines.bsky.social

MORE JOBS! The Dept of Politics is looking to recruit up to SEVEN new lecturers, with five as T&S and two as T&R. Any field is great, but we have gaps in British Politics, Theory, Public Pol, Comparative. The ad for the T&S can be found here: www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DRW437/l... @livunipol.bsky.social

jobs.ac.ukLecturer in Politics and/or International Relations - Grade 7 at University of LiverpoolApply now for the Lecturer in Politics and/or International Relations - Grade 7 role on jobs.ac.uk - the leading job board for higher education jobs. View details.