Jac Larner

Accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social: After EU Referendum Remain voters became less British🇬🇧 Same gap emerged between Yes and No voters after 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 IndyRef but then disappeared; Brexit's hasn't, because ongoing implementation keeps reinforcing the threat, meaning gap has continued to grow. Full link 👇

NEW - Reshaping Belonging: National Identity Change in Post-Referendum Britain - https://cup.org/4AhXkmW - @jaclarner.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social & @danielwincott.bsky.social #OpenAccess

The @britishacademy.bsky.social deserves praise for its work in this area, but the bottom line is that the 20th century academic career is going the way of the defined benefit pension: once past promises have been honoured, no new promises will be made.

This is just false, isn't it? Avg levels of trust in Holyrood (mean 4.46 on a 0–10 scale) are higher than levels of trust in W'minster (3.06), so Dundee would have to be way out of line w/ the nat'l picture to trust Holyrood as much as W'minster www.electionanalysis.uk/scottish-ele...

Today's young republicans are tomorrow's loyal subjects — support for monarchy rises steadily with age across all generations 👑 Started as office joke but ended with valuable finding about legitimacy of unaccountable institutions. Andrew's latest disgrace not in data, but plenty of earlier ones are

open.substack.com/pub/willhayw... A long read from me on what the hell just happened to Welsh Labour Do please share with anyone who might be interested! Diolch @willhaycardiff.bsky.social and to @jaclarner.bsky.social and Owain Cynfab for the graphics!

Come join us next Tuesday for new analysis on how Wales has changed in the 10 years since the Eu Referendum 👇

We are pleased to share that the report from our 2026 Local Elections event is now available The report brings together key insights and discussion points from the event, focusing on the evolving dynamics of local elections and their broader implications See the report here: poal.co.uk/events/

Ymunwch â @jaclarner.bsky.social a @richardwynjones.bsky.social ar gyfer ein dadansoddiad ôl-etholiad Senedd Cymru 2026 / Join us for our online event to examine what happened in the 2026 Welsh national election. Dolen cofrestru yma / Registration link here 👇 www.eventbrite.com/e/1990480045...

Great work from James on how Wales’ new electoral system performed (Even if he has cut off Monmouthshire….)

Fascinating stuff. Only thing I'd add is that ability of list to compensate for disproportionality in const depends on limited split ticket voting. Prelim SES data suggest *split tickets at an all time high* this election, thus further weakening Lab and Con chances esp Quebec proposed a model of ...

Labour down 30 points in two constituencies declared so far @itvcymruwales.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk MRP looking pretty good at the moment across board on vote shares

Record turnout in Wales with Senedd & Westminster turnout converging. Unthinkable a few years ago but still nearly half of registered voters staying home Competitiveness always helps, as well as the growing understanding that decisions Welsh Government takes has an impact on day-to-day lives

Some great stuff here from our PhD student @willdv2002.bsky.social what voters do and don’t know about voting in Senedd 2026 election

The headline findings are worth your time, but Dan’s contribution here is a thoughtful history of how national identity has (and has not) been measured in British surveys over time

Lots of misunderstanding about Wales’s new electoral system — how it works, what it takes to get elected, and especially around tactical voting. Partly to sort my own thinking, I put together something that tries to make sense of it. Proper write-up coming soon. jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...

In just 2,000 words, @richardhywelking.bsky.social has produced a masterful guide through the last 27 years of Labour in Wales. Essential reading before next Thursday when the Labour century may come to an end www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century! So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

YouGov's first MRP of the 2026 Senedd election shows Plaid Cymru on course to be the largest party PC: 43 (+19 from 2021*) Ref: 30 (+30) Lab: 12 (-32) Grn: 10 (+10) Con: 1 (-25) LD: 0 (-2) *notional results had the last election been conducted on the new system based on data from Dr Jac Larner

This loss of talent will have long term consequences for our national research base. Government and funders should do something about it.

SES scoop out @scotvoting.bsky.social

Fantastic stuff, as ever, from Nye on the decline of two cornerstones of Welsh identity over the last century: Rugby and the Labour Party

Ahead of #Senedd26 @jaclarner.bsky.social joined the BBC's Chris Mason in #Pontypridd to discuss the big shifts in Welsh politics that suggest a century of electoral dominance by the Labour Party is being challenged by Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, who are battling to top the polls in #Wales.

From November 2025 - Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB - @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social #OpenAccess

For those interested, raw data download is here along with some basic cross tabs: github.com/jaclarner/Ca...