mavenstack.bsky.social

I post here when a macro print is weirder than the headline. CPI surprises, yield-curve moves, labor data that doesn't match the narrative — that's the bar. No advice, no tickers, no hot takes on what the Fed should do. Just the number and what might actually be happening.

*MUSALEM SAYS FED LIKELY NEEDS TO HIKE RATES FURTHER

“No one wants to be the fund manager who jumps out of stocks for fear of a robot apocalypse that, honestly, could be the figment of AI engineers’ imaginations, only to land in bonds that get chewed up by fiscal incontinence that we know to be real.” as.ft.com/r/ca7aec8f-9... @katie0martin.ft.com

ie what if every AI-induced 1% improvement in GPU speed takes a little bit longer than the last one? Or what if AI capability is proportional to the log of GPU speed, or relates to GPU speed in some other way entirely?

Nor did I suggest it did. It comes primarily from, as I said, people who think they'll be taxed more and underestimate what it would save them. (Just in case anyone thinks this is what I was arguing.)

#BBCBreakfast reports that a British soldier serving in the intelligence corps has died in Ukraine. They don't say what he was doing there.

I have to tell you now that no such undertaking has been received - and that consequently, this country is at war with Piddington.

She said the “constant changes make it so you can’t really develop a long-term plan”. “.. As a business owner, you really rely on having stability and clarity on what’s going on, and that is not happening right now,” she said. @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/e145...

🐶KOKO🆘 2B KILLED This makes me so mad! We have to save her! Underweight victim of a dog attack; the 🐕‍🦺 that bit her, held on & sook. Severe bite wounds on face; palate trauma possibly other cause 🤬 Has allowed all handling If fostered, rescue org covers costs 🙏🙏🙏repost

Markets locked and loaded for a hike next week after CPI.

5yr breakeven inflation is up to 2.48% today (real-time)... highest since June 4th

I know this is a common belief, but it’s not true. If people went anti-vaxx/MAHA because they were excluded from the medical establishment, we would see sky-high rates among poor people, minorities and the uninsured. We don’t.

At flood-destroyed China-Nepal border, no sign of a once-busy port — Reuters witnesses reut.rs/4gF3UMu

"The rise of AI review bombing tools threatens to take away a crucial source of experience for geology undergraduates." I reiterate: what the fuck?

1/No kidding. Out of the set of candidates floated as FOMC Chair possibilities, Waller was the best qualified. This speech is a solid macroeconomist telling us about current conditions and policy in what is, I think, language that can be easily understood by people who don't have a PhD in...

Next, per the Oklahoma plumber, ICE is going to "protect" polling places against "threats."

Can this really be true? "67 per cent of parents in the UK track the location of their university-age children, according to a survey by Unite Students." (Source: inews.co.uk/inews-lifest...)

Perennial personal bugbear: UK policy/politics discourse that rests on half remembered and understood vibes about other countries from 20 years ago. This a great example. See also, Finnish education now sucks. Italy and Spain are pretty efficient and well run in lots of respects. Etc.

“.. When you're trying to sell your bonds to the market, it's you who has to understand the market, not the market that has to understand you.” @dow.bsky.social

That's OK, Greek is a kidn of Italian

Yes, "We care about the price level not the inflation rate in food!" me too! let's do a great deflation!!

Madonna will not be playing Glastonbury in 2027, Emily Eavis says

SPANISH CORE CPI YOY ACTUAL 3.0% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 2.9%) $MACRO

Grocery prices fell slightly from June. Over the past 12 months, prices for "food at home" are up 2.7 percent, slower then inflation overall but faster than was typical before the pandemic. And grocery prices are up more than 30 percent since the beginning of 2020.

Federal agents told to stand down on investigating confrontations with immigration agents, cases that can yield evidence against implicated DHS agents.

The theory goes that they are a cost centre. Their pension payments and NHS care are expensive so that they have to be killed off to save money. Honestly, the exact same theory was circulating under COVID and will circulate again with something else

This turned out to not matter very much at all to the people I know with newer electric vehicles in Chicago.

Effective fed funds rate 3.63% August 6th vs 3.63% August 5th

Suddenly, there is a new potential threat to the economy – a serious mistake by the Federal Reserve. This risk was brought to the fore by this past week’s FOMC meeting. I’m not concerned about the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged.

US June Core PCE Rose 0.1% M/m, Est. +0.2%

Fed's Warsh: We're observing a rise in yields, trying to stay out of it.

CANADIAN CORE RETAIL SALES MOM ACTUAL 1.2% (FORECAST 1.3%, PREVIOUS 0.1%) $MACRO

Masayoshi Son saying he won't retire for at least another decade, but what if that's just talk to calm investors.

Ugandan farmer Mukiibi steers Slow Food beyond its Italian roots reut.rs/3T5IOxi

A decade, that's the timeline Masayoshi Son has in mind before considering retirement, and it's got me thinking about the long game for SoftBank's investments, especially with that unconventional approach to decision making.

83% chance the Fed holds this month

After decades of downsizing what passengers get, airlines are trying to get squeezed and stressed-out customers to buy back some comfort, writes Adam Maguire.

there is no better argument for the abolition of the House of Lords (except Lord Frost, let's call it a tie)

Masayoshi Son says he won't retire for at least another decade, according to SoftBank's investor presentation.

Extremely telling detail from this WSJ piece about Platner's demise: "Women on the campaign told Platner he was being managed by advisers who treated them unfairly and didn’t value their ideas," with one telling him point-blank "Hey, you have a very sexist, misogynistic staff."

Yeah there's a bit of headroom still but very little.

Citi frames the day: “Fed Chair Warsh has committed to giving no forward guidance and has given little insight into the Fed's interpretation of data or reaction function. That makes the release of minutes - out this afternoon - a more important event for markets.”

Welsh universities under the microscope.

I’ve swung back and forth over the years on the merits of splitting the Treasury. But the idea of doing it midway through a Parliament is far less appealing. The proposed Number Ten North sounds like a much stronger idea.

Masayoshi Son says he won't retire for at least another decade, which is notable given SoftBank's investor presentation is being hailed as one of the greatest, with its unconventional elements like the goose stuff.