Jon Green

Jon Green

@jongreen.bsky.social

Assistant professor, Department of Political Science, Duke University jgreen4919.github.io

5.5K followers576 following3.4K posts

my read of the OP here is a point about how ordinary citizens allocate their scarce attention, not whether what happens abroad matters. if we think it's bad that attention to national politics has crowded out attention to state/local politics, e.g., surely that extends to international politics

Dan Mauler 🎃@meelar.bsky.social

I just think Matt's wrong about this. We're at a point in our technological development where a ton of problems spill over national borders--if Flavio Bolsonaro burns down the Amazon, that will flood houses in Miami.

underrated reason why you shouldn't read too-too much into early vote data is that it's hard to differentiate someone who substitutes absentee voting for early voting because of concerns like this from someone who early votes when in a different election they wouldn't have voted

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social

North Carolina’s Democratic governor warns that the absentee ballot rejection rate is twice as high as in 2022 thanks to last-minute changes by Republicans. He recommends voting in person if you can (early voting is even better!) wcti12.com/news/local/g...

generally hard to tell from turnout via a specific method how much is about changes in overall turnout and how much is about changes in turnout via that method

slightly stronger version of this take: the kind of person who not only votes early, but votes on the early end of the early voting window, is likelier to be someone who made a different decision about how to vote, not whether to vote

the problem with Wedgewood isn't that other pollsters don't have standards (they very much do! aapor.org/standards-an...), it's that ~no one on the demand side pays attention to professional ratings of pollsters' reputations/adherence to these standards (or lack thereof)

aapor.orgStandards and Ethics - AAPOROverview AAPOR believes in upholding the highest standards for our profession, with our members agreeing to abide by the AAPOR Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. Our goals are to support sound...
Nathan Tankus@nathantankus.bsky.social

Polling, at minimum, needs a trade association which sets minimum standards for polling and to make polling commensurable so that poll aggregation is an apples to apples comparison process and so you can apply different pollsters "house effects" to other pollsters microdata.

for the most part, "the system" on the poll aggregator side worked. RCP ignored them; FiftyPlusOne investigated them, VoteHub put them in with a low reputational rating so they didn't add much weight. but none of that mattered when their random numbers went viral on X

the military ballroom complex

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump: "It's going to be the greatest ballroom and military complex combination ever built!" (Has any ballroom/military complex EVER been built?!)

Jon Green reposted

Y’all, I hate to rain on the dead bot parade, but the Yandex data center destruction doesn’t seem to have significantly impacted social media bots. I made temporal graphs of X posts about AfD around the time of the attack and there’s no sign of a sudden dip or residual impact on that conversation.

there is such a thing as a false rumor? if there wasn't such a thing as a false rumor then rumors would all be true?

Timothy Burke@bubbaprog.xyz

1. There is no such thing as a "false rumor." The word for that is a HOAX. 2. The headline misses the entire point of the hoax, which is not that he was in Ohio, but that he was in a mental health facility! are there any adults left at the new york times

the article: - says in the first paragraph that the claim is false - says in the second paragraph that the claim centers on a mental health facility - repeats that the claims are false and have been debunked - puts responsibility on conservatives for circulating the claim what more do you want?

running for office when you’re actually trying to win is awful. but if you play your career right you can be one of a dozen or so folks who get to run for president without trying to win. and that’s basically a crowdfunded road trip where you’re constantly the center of attention

Materialist Gnostic@walmsley.bsky.social

guy who runs for president because he really likes regional food

Trump has been a real monkeys paw curling type event for everyone who has ever said that Americans have low levels of political knowledge. We don’t even bother asking people if they can name who runs the Office of Management and Budget or what that office does, but I’m sure both are at record highs!

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump shouts out Russ Vought and then says, ominously, "we have some big surprises coming up in a few weeks, right Russ? He's gonna be one of the important people in the history of our country."

who wants to tell him about the system of government that was hailed as the holy grail for the previous couple thousand years before democracy

Gil Durán@gilduran.com

“Democracy has been hailed as, like, the holy grail for the last couple hundred years, but democracies are inefficient,” said the crypto billionaire. “If you get a benevolent dictator, it’s actually extremely efficient." Hmm, where have I heard this before? www.nytimes.com/2026/10/01/b...

worth adding that the national parties -- who have invested a ton of resources into this question and have additional private information -- are behaving as if the public polling is basically right

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no way of knowing for sure of course, but diverting resources from North Carolina to Kansas isn't the behavior of a party that has reason to believe the public polls are off by much

Jon Green reposted

Lauren Ratliff Santoro and I are running the PolNet Online Colloquium this year Submissions are due October 17. Working papers and dissertation chapters are great. Fall sessions are November 10 and December 8, 10:30–11:30 ET. Submit here: pennstate.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

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I'm sure there will be plenty of discourse about this funny little episode but in all seriousness there's a Take out there for a responsible centrist worried about ~civility~ to write on how bad it is for a senator to *double down* on this very specific, very wrong detail in their conspiracy theory

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Eric Schmitt is on The Charlie Kirk Show (yes it's still called that) -- and believe it or not, hosts are pretending he owned Smith with his embarrassingly botched gotcha "You caught him in this NBA game too in Atlanta" "Yeah," Schmitt says There's no mention that Schmitt had all his facts wrong

Jon Green reposted

seeing a lot of discussion about this and like: the reason the poster did a screenshot with no link is that if you actually search for the article you'd learn that this bill 1) has nothing to do with Zohran Mamdani 2) was introduced in committee back in May and didn't go anywhere

given the player and their history this makes it sound less like that’s all the information they have and more like they don’t believe him

we almost had to pull the car over just now because my wife started playing Cleveland and we were already laughing about how bad it is and then it got to the truly cringe bridge and the toddler started saying “ALL DONE! ALL DONE!” and we just lost it

[listens to the first verse of Cleveland] ok this is bad but it’s not as bad as her *other* song about Travis Kelce [listens to the bridge] nope it’s worse

seems intuitive to me that a committee ranking top 100 anything based on purely subjective tastes in multiple dimensions could produce a ranking weirder and less defensible than any individual would produce on their own

both parties think this (that they are incompetent and divided while the other side is disciplined and united), but also, a starting point for good messaging is not constantly going on tv to talk about how bad your message is

every passage I’ve seen from this article is like finding a soldier who’s been hiding on an island for five years and doesn’t know that Woke War 1 is over and they lost

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Donald Trump’s effects on public opinion are wild. Last week he negatively polarized our country against free money. This is at least the *second* time he’s generated a rally around the flag effect in Canada this term

I have great news about how candidates with heterodox stances are perceived by voters in the context of one-dimensional party competition

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com

notice how these people who were formerly all-in on the mythical power of ideological moderation have changed their tack and entire organizational orientation after discovering the wisdom of the ancients that most voters are not ideological at all. now it’s all about “heterodoxy.”

Instead of H-I-J-K-LMNOP. Q-R-S…, it’s H-I-J-K-L-M-N. O-P-Q-R-S-T-U… so each letter stays spaced out. you’d think something like the alphabet song would be a solved problem. This version is clearly better!

Jon Green reposted

This is a cheap post but only getting 17% of the country to support you sending them five thousand dollars is a sign that you haven’t just lost your fastball, you’ve lost the entire strike zone

Polling USA@usapolling.bsky.social

Support For Trump's Proposed $5000 Check: Oppose: 63% Support: 17% Ipsos / Sept 14, 2026

Netflix: For the seventeenth time, we have recreated Squid Games from the hit Netflix show "Don't Create Squid Games"

DiscussingFilm@discussingfilm.net

Netflix has announced a new reality series titled ‘THE NEW STANFORD PRISON EXPERIMENT’. The series follows 30 participants who enter a real prison and are randomly assigned as guards or prisoners. They must see if they conform to the roles or if morality wins.

Jon Green reposted

We cross-referenced the psychometric personality data of ~ 1 million people with their zodiac astrological signs: 1) There is a small but statistically significant effect of zodiac sign on personality controlling for demographic and attitudinal variables