Kate Starbird

youtube.comA Spotlight on RumorsYouTube video by UW (University of Washington)

27 Mar 2025

On Feb 24, I gave a lecture at UW explaining what my team's decade-plus research on online rumors during crises reveals about the right wing "bullshit machine." Fittingly, a lightning strike impacted the original audio. Here's a fixed version w/ the full transcript: www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjiG...

uwcip.substack.comWhat to Know About Election Forecasting and Prediction Markets This NovemberWhat to Expect When We’re Electing

Our election research team put out an article today explaining how the prediction markets (e.g. Kalshi, Polymarket) — and social media posts featuring visualizations from those platforms — may feed election rumors & conspiracy theories around the U.S. midterms: uwcip.substack.com/p/what-to-kn...

Prediction markets are one of the new dimensions of this election cycle. We already see a lot of rumors and conspiracy theories based on misinterpretations of data, statistics, and visualizations. The prediction markets add a new data source ripe for both manipulation and misinterpretation.

uwcip.substack.comSpot the Lie: 6 Moves of “Rigged Election” RumorsWhat to Expect When We’re Electing

14h

Today, our election research team published our updated (from 2024) framework for understanding how most rumors that sow doubt in election processes mislead. A lot of what we see is on that right side of the graph, real issues that get wrapped into false rumors. uwcip.substack.com/p/spot-the-l...

@monstrousregiment.bsky.social

16h

High level observation from some of our election rumor work this season: The Trump admin & right wing media ecosystem are focusing a lot of energy on California — which with all of their congressional seats and the long counting period could set the stage for some "rigged election" shenanigans.

Kate Starbird reposted

Monstrous Regiment

Replying to @drandrewthaler.bsky.social

Same. My daughter played ice hockey. Soccer, lacrosse and did fencing with boys while growing up. Was a D1 athlete in college where men and women fenced each other, and still played coed rugby for fun. Girls don’t need or want anyone’s patronizing BS “protection.”

@drandrewthaler.bsky.social

This drives me CRAZY. I grew up playing sports w/ boys. I played on a U12 boys select soccer team, b4 switching to a U12 girls team that kept beating us. Nobody had any issue with any of it. Youth sports have never had the strict sex/gender boundaries that “XX-XY” activists are now trying to defend.

Andrew D Thaler@drandrewthaler.bsky.social

I live in a rural town and, like, I don't know how to tell you this, but the girls play on the boys team and vice versa all the time because otherwise we don't have enough players for a game and it's literally always fine so stop being weirdos about kids sports and just let trans kids play.

Kate Starbird reposted

Andrew D Thaler

The Brazil election story today is already wild. Alleged efforts by some local mayors to stymie public transportation to suppress votes. Extended voting hours. Now vote is coming in, Bolsonaro with a slim lead, and yet the Polymarket has totally flipped in the last few hours towards Lula:

More vote coming in and now Lula is leading in the vote count too (48% reporting).

Lula wins! (Substantial lead with 99% reporting.) Now here come the conspiracy theories.

Our research team is doing real-time coverage of emerging news and rumors related to election integrity. We put out several outputs this week. Several of the rumors we covered are still percolating. Some of the stories may become seeds for conspiracy theories later in the cycle. Some highlights...

The second interactive graph is for the Arizona "felon registration" case. It's here: faculty.washington.edu/kstarbi/Spot... We have barely had time to scratch the surface of this. If you find anything interesting, let me know!

We're open to tips about what to track next. If you see a new rumor emerging, or if there's a story spreading and you want to know what it looks like on X (or Bluesky), let me know. You can message me here. We don't have the capacity to map EVERYTHING, but we do for a few interesting things.

We followed a AZ story where a video released by a self-described "muckraker" allegedly shows Democratic-aligned canvassers volunteering to help register non-citizens and felons to vote. The video is misleading. Its spread on X reveals the new shape of the "voter fraud" influencer machine there.

We have two interactive graphs available to explore how some of these stories are spreading on X. The first is around the Wedgewood (Fake) Polls story. faculty.washington.edu/kstarbi/Spot... Seriously, follow the link ^^^ & you can dive into this data. It's what we use to do our analyses.

cip.uw.eduElection Rumor Rundown for October 22: Machines switch votes on Dolly Parton’s sister, ballots returned to sendersMachines switching votes on Dolly Parton’s sister in Tennessee, ballots returned to senders, and other sources of rumoring

We saw reports of "machines switching votes" in TN & TX. These are typically real issues — a calibration problem w/ older touchscreen machines — but not intentional efforts to rig the vote. Always good for voters to check that their vote is being recorded correctly. www.cip.uw.edu/2026/10/22/e...

cip.uw.eduElection Rumor Rundown for October 24: Emerging election integrity stories from Washington, Minnesota and ArizonaEmerging stories about election integrity — and the rumors taking shape around them — from Washington, Minnesota, and Arizona

There were a few local stories. Ballots found w/ stolen mail in a dumpster in Seattle (easily remedied, unlikely to be politically motivated), and an offer by Gov. Ferguson to deploy National Guard troops to protect election infrastructure (stirring lots of suspicion). www.cip.uw.edu/2026/10/24/e...

cip.uw.eduFrom confession to conspiracy: How the Wedgewood fake polls story spreadNews of Wedgewood’s admission was quickly amplified and wrapped into a number of different rumors and narratives. Conversation and framing contests around this news continue.

On Tues, Wedgewood Polls confessed that polling data it had been publishing since June was fake. The news sparked criticism, then was quickly amplified (by rw influencers), then wrapped into speculative rumors (right & left) & conspiracy theories around "fake polls". www.cip.uw.edu/2026/10/23/f...

Kate Starbird reposted

uwcip.substack.comElection Rumor Rundown October 24Emerging stories about election integrity — and the rumors taking shape around them — from Washington, Minnesota, and Arizona

Hearing reports of discarded ballots? Concerns about WA State National Guard deploying to protect elections? Allegations of ballot harvesting in Minnesota? Investigations of non-citizen registration in AZ? Check out our latest rumor rundown to learn more: uwcip.substack.com/p/election-r...

theconversation.comAre transgender sports bans really about protecting women? Survey data tells a different storyIn a recent national survey, Americans with the most negative views of women were the biggest proponents of transgender sports bans.

Go figure: Proposed bans of transgender athletes, like I-638 in WA, are framed as "protecting women" but that framing is misleading. This survey shows that people with more sexist views support bans at higher rates (79%) than people with less sexist views (28%). theconversation.com/are-transgen...

uwcip.substack.comElection Rumor Rundown October 24Emerging stories about election integrity — and the rumors taking shape around them — from Washington, Minnesota, and Arizona

The “ballots in a dumpster” in WA is a real story, but it’s spawned some misleading takes. Here’s the full story: Ballots found with stolen mail. Very unlikely to be politically motivated. Already remedied. And not going to impact election results.

The National Guard thing? The governor offered, if specific counties want help. Five said yes. They will be unarmed and in plainclothes. They are there to protect voters and election infrastructure (drop boxes). But people on both sides of the political spectrum are suspicious of motives and impact.

uwcip.substack.comElection Rumor Rundown October 24Emerging stories about election integrity — and the rumors taking shape around them — from Washington, Minnesota, and Arizona

The "voter fraud" rumors out of AZ, based on an "undercover investigation" into voter registration efforts, are spreading via a slightly new arrangement (since 2024) of right-wing & conservative influencers. Interactive version of this graph: faculty.washington.edu/kstarbi/Spot...

Kate Starbird reposted

uwcip.substack.comFrom Confession to Conspiracy: How the Wedgewood Fake Polls Story SpreadA Rumor Deep Dive

Our research team did a deep dive this week on the Wedgewood "fake polls" confession and the different rumors and strategic narratives that have taken shape around it. We expect this story and the rumors around it to continue spreading into and beyond the midterms. uwcip.substack.com/p/from-confe...

uwcip.substack.comFrom Confession to Conspiracy: How the Wedgewood Fake Polls Story SpreadA Rumor Deep Dive

This story began on Tuesday (Oct 20), took off (on X) on Wednesday (Oct 21), slowed a bit yesterday, then returned with some assistance from Trump's Truth Social account today. Might be something to keep an eye on if you're watching the election and election integrity beat.

uwcip.substack.comFrom Confession to Conspiracy: How the Wedgewood Fake Polls Story SpreadA Rumor Deep Dive

A link to the same article on our website: www.cip.uw.edu/2026/10/23/f...

More reports today of duplicate mail-in ballots — this time in PA. Good reminders: (1) Errors happen; they are rarely intentional. (2) There are election safeguards in place to prevent counting 2 ballots from 1 person; (3) If you receive 2, throw 1 away. Don't try to vote twice — that's illegal!

to.pbs.orgDOJ monitoring plans and DHS voter checks raise concerns of election interferenceWith the midterm elections less than two weeks away, a new legal battle is raising questions about the federal government's role in policing who is eligible to vote. A federal judge in California has ...

Republicans appear to be building a case to potentially challenge the election outcomes in states that refuse to allow them (or help them) to remove people alleged to be non-citizens (using lists known to be riddled with errors) from voting rolls.

PBS News@pbsnews.org

With the midterm elections less than two weeks away, a new legal battle is raising questions about the federal government's role in policing who is eligible to vote. https://to.pbs.org/488zw7T

uwcip.substack.comThe Election Rumor Rundown @ Center for an Informed PublicWelcome to the Election Rumor Rundown Substack by the Center for an Informed Public at the University of Washington, covering rumors about election processes and procedures in U.S. elections. Click to...

Here's our team's "election rumor rundown" for yesterday. It was a busy day with reports of machine glitches and mail-in ballot concerns. These (mostly real) issues were spun into false rumors that suggested they were intentional efforts to tilt election results. uwcip.substack.com/p/fa68f983-1...

Kate Starbird@katestarbird.bsky.social

Lots of election rumors circulating today: machines allegedly flipping votes, stolen mail w/ ballots, voters receiving multiple ballots, ballots returned to sender. Many of these are REAL issues that may end up getting wrapped into false rumors (around impact, intentionality, and remedies).

TL&DR: If you’re voting via touchscreen, make sure your vote is recorded as intended. If you’re voting by mail, put your ballot in an official dropbox & track your ballot online to make sure it gets counted in a timely way. If you get two ballots, throw one out. Don’t vote twice; that’s illegal.

faculty.washington.edufaculty.washington.edu

Fake polls in the spotlight: We just updated this interactive graph with more data — to capture the conversation on X around Wedgewood and “fake polls” through this morning. You can zoom in of different parts of the conversation to see who is posting what. faculty.washington.edu/kstarbi/Spot...

Kate Starbird@katestarbird.bsky.social

We put up an interactive graph re: X conversations re: the (discovered to be fake) Wedgewood polls. Several "rigged election" narratives are emerging around this case. We're working on an analysis, but making this graph available for folks who want to explore faculty.washington.edu/kstarbi/Spot...

Kate Starbird reposted

Andy Craig

@andycraig.bsky.social

Some TN counties used BMDs (touchscreen where it marks a paper ballot you then turn in) or DRE/VVPAT (counts straight from the touchscreen but also prints a paper trail). These are inferior to hand-marked optical scan ballots. Touchscreens can be poorly calibrated and have higher error rates.

Aaron Parnas@aaronparnas.bsky.social

Dolly Parton's sister claims voting machines in Tennessee changed her vote to the Republican candidate.

Kate Starbird reposted

Amanda Carpenter

@amandacarpenter.bsky.social

🧵 w/ some NEWS You may have missed it but recently DHS started using HSI (the same arm that raided Ilhan Omar's home) to conduct voter raids on suspected noncitizen voters. www.latimes.com/california/s...

latimes.comCalifornia residents accused by feds of voter fraud react with shock, confusion and angerSeveral green card holders arrested in a Trump administration crackdown on alleged California voter fraud appeared in court Monday, with some saying they had no recollection of ever registering to cas...

Kate Starbird reposted

Joe Uchill

@joeuchill.bsky.social

Replying to @joeuchill.bsky.social

From a history perspective, I started covering election security as a reporter in 2016, and as a PhD researcher in 2024. This exact problem of apparent changing votes happens in every election. Here's me writing about it in 2018.

axios.comReports: Votes in Texas, Georgia are being changed at pollsOlder or buggy voting machines are being blamed.

Kate Starbird@katestarbird.bsky.social

Worth watching this emerging story: Wedgewood Polls alleged to be fake; has been picked up & amplified/integrated by established sources & other pollsters; may be tied to prediction market trading; is likely to throw doubt upon current poll numbers (which will feed "rigged election" rumors later).

Ross Dahlke@rossdahlke.bsky.social

After Median Strategies' fake polls and Wedgewood Polls rumors, I started collecting data to study how "real" versus "fake" polls affect election-market prices on Polymarket. Was hoping to have until after the election to finish the preprint...but some preliminary analysis:

This may the "October surprise" of 2026. The right is running with several narratives around this story. Only 25K mentions on X, but growing. FCC is already flexing. Claims that Dem candidates were impacted in the primaries; risks of subdued enthusiasm for Dem candidates after discovery.

If you encounter an election issue — a ballot missing or found somewhere it should be, a machine that doesn't seem to be working correctly — contact your local election officials, learn what the remedies are, take action to protect your own vote, & let folks know what they can do to protect theirs.

It's October 21, 2026. Early voting for the midterms is off and running. Mail-in ballots are circulating in many states. And we're seeing reports of machine glitches and USPS errors. Good time to remind folks that mistakes do happen, but they are rarely intentional, and they usually have remedies.

If we can resist falling for the "error = conspiracy" fallacy (and other misinterpretations), that will give us higher and more stable ground to call out the real efforts to interfere with election, for example, efforts by the DOJ to push states to kick registered voters of the rolls.

uwcip.substack.comElection Rumor Rundown October 20Arrests of alleged non-citizen voters in California create a media spectacle, false rumors of overseas absentee ballot fraud in Michigan and more

Here's our team's "Election Rumor Rundown" from the past few days, including some analysis of the DOJ's ongoing efforts to create a spectacle around the arrests of non-citizens to feed the false narrative of widespread non-citizen voting. uwcip.substack.com/p/election-r...