John Springford

John Springford

@johnspringford.bsky.social

Economist and occasional politics dabbler. Working on a project to improve labour markets. Associate fellow, Centre for European Reform. Visiting fellow, Institute for Policy Research, Bath University. Accusations of bad faith or lying = block.

19.3K followers1.9K following8.2K posts

John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

Quite. Also GDP, and therefore tax revenues to do social democracy with.

David Henig@davidheniguk.bsky.social

More to come on this, but those Labour MPs opposing talking about freedom of movement need to be aware that they are also condemning UK manufacturing to more barriers and probably further decline. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

theguardian.comCabinet ministers back Burnham’s call for debate on return to free movement with EUPM’s plea supported by Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband and business leaders, while some ‘red wall’ MPs voice concern
John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

A (small) Brexit freedom, ironically. Small because tariffs are already low.

The Guardian@theguardian.com

Tories dismiss PM’s budget ‘everyday fixes’ as little more than ‘cheaper gherkins’, and ‘an insult to families’ – UK politics live

theguardian.comTories dismiss PM’s budget ‘everyday fixes’ as little more than ‘cheaper gherkins’, and ‘an insult to families’ – UK politics liveRemoving tariffs on more than 100 products, including gherkins and baked beans, was one of five measures announced this morning before tomorrow’s budget Good morning. Prime ministers tend to get judged by posterity by the decisions they take on the big issues of the day. But little things matter too in the here and now, often disproportionately, and Andy Burnham, more than his predecessors, has decided that what he calls “everyday fixes” are worth focusing on too. Alexandra Topping wrote a good analysis about the pluses and minuses of this approach last week. But she filed too soon, because this morning Burnham has announced another five. These are all changes contained in tomorrow’s budget but being announced today – presumably because John Healey will have bigger surprises for MPs tomorrow, and the Treasury wants these measures to get some media attention today because tomorrow they will be overshadowed by another story. • Making higher tax-free mileage rates permanent and increasing support for nurses, care workers, self employed builders and others who drive for work. The chancellor is locking in the 55p per mile rate for the first 10,000 business miles and increasing the rate above 10,000 miles from 25p to 35p per mile, supporting around 3 million employees and self-employed people who use their own vehicle for work. • Extending parental pay to more than 150,000 additional parents per year, including self-employed dads and partners who have previously missed out, giving eligible parents two weeks of support currently worth up to £194 a week so they can spend more time with their child. Rampant borrowing, soaring taxes and an utter inability to cut spending mean inflation has already wiped out the benefits of Burnham’s ‘everyday fixes’. Shoppers face rising costs at the till and families are struggling to make ends meet, but Burnham’s plan is cheaper gherkins. This is an insult to families hammered by Labour’s tax rises. Part of the genius with this stuff is the negative polarisation, when people start attacking perfectly sensible and helpful – albeit small – changes. Actually I want longer Post Office queues please! Continue reading...

John Springford reposted

Ben Chu
@benchu.bsky.social

🚨NEW 🚨 New 3 part series from me and producer Caroline Bayley for BBC Radio 4 and BBC Sounds: *The Growth Conundrum* Listen to PART 1️⃣here, which sets out just how bad things are when it comes to UK growth, why we should care - and what's blocking growth... 👇 🎧 www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...

bbc.co.ukBBC Radio 4 - Understand, The Growth Conundrum, 1. Growing PainsWhy does the UK find it so difficult to generate strong economic growth?

John Springford reposted

Alexander Clarkson
@aphclarkson.bsky.social

Of course a win for non-authoritarian leaders or movements does not automatically mean all problems are solved or that authoritarian forces can't come back in future. But it is worth maintaining hope and optimism, because if people succumb to nihilism and apathy then democracy cannot survive.

John Springford reposted

Judah Grunstein
@judah-grunstein.bsky.social

Brazil will get more attention either way it goes, but this is truly an incredible victory for the student protesters. We ran this in March 2025, which explained the movement's strengths but seemed overly optimist in the months that followed. 18 months later, they succeeded. Gen Z strikes again.

worldpoliticsreview.comSerbia’s Student-Led Protests Have Vucic CorneredMass protests reflect a shifting tide in Serbia’s politics and the public’s frustration with rampant corruption under President Vucic.
David Kaye@davidakaye.bsky.social

wow, really, vucic concedes

theguardian.comWild scenes of celebration in Belgrade as Vučić concedes Serbian election – Europe liveStudent List movement projected to have 138 seats in the new parliament, well clear of the 126 required for majority, to Vučić’s 104
John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

Thinking about the practicalities - the four freedoms make sense as a package because the movement of goods and services are facilitated by movement of capital and labour. And countries have different endowments and comparative advantages, so there needs to be benefits for all.

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social

Also FoM is a red line for the EU and I don't think the Euro or Schengen would be.

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John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

On Schengen, there are advantages to making it bigger - more destinations where passport checks aren't necessary, raising mobility on the margin. But - the Ceuta episode in which Germany, France and Italy made daft, hair-trigger statements when Morroccans couldn't travel on to the EU.

John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

Having the UK in Schengen would surely make 'emergency' passport checks much more likely, and might encourage other member-states to do more too. So it also seems unlikely to be a deal-breaker.

John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

Thinking about the practicalities - the four freedoms make sense as a package because the movement of goods and services are facilitated by movement of capital and labour. And countries have different endowments and comparative advantages, so there needs to be benefits for all.

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social

Also FoM is a red line for the EU and I don't think the Euro or Schengen would be.

View full thread
John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

But that's set against a) the politics of the City, which is still Europe's largest financial centre b) the UK's tendency to have higher inflation, which might mean that interest rates are set too low and c) the domestic politics in the UK, which are strongly against, for good and bad reasons.

John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

Thinking about the practicalities - the four freedoms make sense as a package because the movement of goods and services are facilitated by movement of capital and labour. And countries have different endowments and comparative advantages, so there needs to be benefits for all.

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social

Also FoM is a red line for the EU and I don't think the Euro or Schengen would be.

John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

The expansion of the eurozone makes sense because it makes the currency more internationalised, raising the number of assets and products priced in euros, thereby raising 'exorbitant privilege' and price stability.

John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

Perhaps editors/think tank board members/politicians handing out patronage should not listen to champions of manifest policy errors, let alone promote them.

Henry Mance@henrymance.ft.com

Yes, but your two big ideas so far have been police and crime commissioners and Brexit. Shall we check on them first?

John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

A significant shift, however much the circular migration point is overdone. Here's my piece on why this matters from two weeks ago www.arguably.uk/p/eu-free-mo...

arguably.ukEU free movement is an opportunity, not a threatProgressives need to rediscover the positive case for immigration
Matthew Holehouse@matthewholehouse.bsky.social

The real inversion is Burnham defending freedom of movement on merits, to the benefit of Britons; rather than a "price to be paid" for market access. For the first time by a PM since.... 2004...?

John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

There was dancing in the streets when the curry house came to my small North Dorset town in the mid-1990s. No more flaccid burgers at the pub that I was not allowed into in the evening, or flaccid chips from The Codpiece.

Peter@notalawyer.bsky.social

a 25 year old could not comprehend how bad the dining options were in the median American town in 1996

John Springford reposted

Sean Kenny
@sean73.bsky.social

More terrible 19th century topos that offer little for the modern climber.

Claude Monet@monet.bsky.social

Rocky points in Belle-Île - 1886 https://botfrens.com/collections/41/contents/3110162

John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

Not sure why Europe hasn't upped the pressure on Putin by saying that Russia's frozen assets will be used to fund Ukraine in stages until a ceasefire holds. Yes there are legal problems, but European security surely trumps them.

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social Trump has again intervened in the Ukraine war on the wrong side. How much difference is it making? What can Europe and Ukraine do to counteract? samf.substack.com/p/ukraine-wi...

samf.substack.comUkraine: With or Without TrumpIt would be so much better if we could address the challenge of defending Ukraine against Russian aggression without also having to deal with Donald Trump and the psychodramas surrounding him.
John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

All of these legal attempts will fail of course, but the problem is MAGA say that Democrats are the enemy and dangerous, which leads to extra-judicial action

Michael Derby@michaelsderby.bsky.social

It begins: Trump launches suit to prevent Democratic candidate from winning Alaska senate race: "Election law experts have panned the Justice Department's lawsuit, calling it a publicity stunt by President Donald Trump's administration that seeks relief not allowed under federal law." Via Reuters

reuters.comUS Justice Dept sues to block possible Alaska election of Democrat to SenateThe US Justice Department on Thursday sued to preemptively block Alaska from certifying the results of its ‌US Senate race if the Republican incumbent candidate loses by a narrow margin, saying voters...
John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

Because I deleted my account I don't have a sense of whether radicalisation is typical. Anyone know of any attempt to track it empirically?

Rob Mullins@robertmullins.bsky.social

Richard Dawkins is fighting elitism (TM). So is Julie Bindel.

John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

Days Of Thunder - the ridiculous redo of Top Gun but with car racing - with my mum in 1990. I loved it. I asked her if she did. "No, it was terrible."

Mark Thompson@markreckons.bsky.social

First film you saw at the cinema. The real first one, not the pretend one you tell people! Mine: The Empire Strikes Back, 1980, Wigan. We were near the front and I can still remember how massive the AT-ATs looked, looming over us out of the snow :) Film, year, where, and whatever stuck with you.

John Springford reposted

Christian Odendahl
@codendahl.bsky.social

Yes, it’s how Chinese EV sellers bypass tariffs: selling EVs to middle men who drive three blocks with it, and sell it on as a “used car”.

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John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

Excellent piece by @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social

The Guardian@theguardian.com

Imagine if, for once, Labour decided to tell the truth about immigration | Gaby Hinsliff

theguardian.comImagine if, for once, Labour decided to tell the truth about immigration | Gaby HinsliffOur economy needs it. The NHS needs it. And making foreign workers’ lives more miserable – as the home secretary plans to do – will undermine integration, says the Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff
John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

Re France, fiscal consolidation + retirement age reform + other acts to raise employment are opposed by Le Pen in the current parliament. She promises implausible spending cuts when she's in power. The ECB won't compress spreads in these circs. So: the French electorate vs bond traders.

John Springford reposted

Robin Wigglesworth
@robinwigglesworth.ft.com

Fwiw this includes me (a British citizen but born abroad), my Norwegian midwife partner, and two of my three children. Nice to know that The Times thinks we are undesirable but has watched “helplessly” as we lived in London.

Jonathan Portes@jdportes.bsky.social

Enoch Powell level bile and lies from the Times www.thetimes.com/comment/the-...