James Marinero

James Marinero

@jamesmarinero.com

Defence tech, Espionage, Nuclear+Energy, Geopolitics commentary. Worked/lived Russia+Middle East+Kazakhstan+more. Conceived the idea of modelling geopolitics using linear algebra, results now live at GVIndex.io. Lives on a boat.

1.8K followers1.1K following1.3K posts

James Marinero reposted

The war is going so well for Russia that Putin is cutting off mobile data in downtown Moscow this week during 2 major conferences he is attending, hoping it will keep Ukrainian drones away. Spoiler alert: it won't keep Ukrainian drones away.

James Marinero reposted

🕸️🕷️Campaign plans: We’re planning to raise funds for net launchers to protect Ukrainian ground robots (UGVs) from Russian FPV drones in one of our upcoming NAFO campaigns. Our friends from the 110th Territorial Defense Brigade’s UGV unit have requested these systems for testing.

I'm just noting that those are precisely the target class that Storm Shadows were designed to punch through to. And you can't build data centres overnight, even if you can get the GPUs and swtiches.

The Kyiv Independent@kyivindependent.com

⚡️️ Russian ministry recommends underground data centers following Ukrainian drone strikes. Existing data centers should be protected by reducing their visibility from the air and through layered defense systems, including reinforced structures, electronic warfare measures, and drone defense systems.

James Marinero reposted

Please donate whatever you can spare. Just chipped in my share. You save the lives of Ukrainian freedom fighters and civilians alike. If you save on life you save the world.

Oksii ✚ 🇺🇦@oksii33.bsky.social

78th brigade needs a van. Let’s go🫶 send.monobank.ua/jar/idSJ1cRwV PayPal v.titarenko@student.csn.khai.edu

The targets are becoming scarcer and therefore harder to find.

MarschallvonNAFO@marschallvonnafo.eurosky.social

mod.gov.ua/assets/xl_ru... as always less orcs, less problems. May have to walk back on my previous assumption regarding less logistic hits. The numbers here might well be not quads but buchankas/trucks. Can't tell from here. But there are about 30% lower than the median it seems.

James Marinero reposted

James Marinero reposted

If still debating whether Donald Trump or Elon Musk willfully crippled Ukraine's missile defense, helping to slay innocent civilians, you are a rube. If the U.S. President had no role, then an oligarch governs national security. If not, the U.S. President serves Russia. Both answers are mortifying.

James Marinero reposted

Today at 15:10, a Russian drone attacked a public bus in Kherson city centre. Passenger trains, markets, bus stations, shopping malls, schools, playgrounds… Russia’s sickening attacks on civilians continue unabated. Six people were injured and taken to hospital, one later died 🙏

James Marinero reposted

☕ Happy Sunday, Tooniacs. Tony was just minding his business, enjoying a quiet Sunday stroll when the Open #ToonieTuesday found him again.😂 Apparently, there are no days off until these four cross the finish line. SOMEBODY - $9,778 / $17,960 - $8,182 to go 🅿️🅿️Bogdan.nelen@gmail.com 🧵⤵️

Official Toonie Tuesday@toonietuesday.bsky.social

🌻𝑮𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒎𝒐𝒓𝒏𝒊𝒏𝒈, 𝑻𝒐𝒐𝒏𝒊𝒂𝒄𝒔! 𝑭𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝑶𝒑𝒆𝒏 𝑻𝒐𝒐𝒏𝒊𝒆 𝑻𝒖𝒆𝒔𝒅𝒂𝒚𝒔. 𝑶𝒏𝒆 𝑭𝒊𝒗𝒆𝒓 𝑭𝒓𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒚. 𝑳𝒆𝒕’𝒔 𝒎𝒂𝒌𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒐𝒔𝒆 𝒇𝒊𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝒄𝒐𝒖𝒏𝒕! All the info and links in the🧵⤵️ If you can spare a fiver today, thank you. If not, a share helps more than you know, we appreciate it all. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 #FiverFriday #ToonieTuesday #NAFO #Ukraine

James Marinero reposted

Absolutely disgusting, but what can we expect from an adjudicated rapist and a congenital liar?

Headquarters@headquartersnews.bsky.social

Q: Amy Acton's stepfather was indicted for rape. Now that you know all that, sir, do you change your mind about the ad? Trump: No. I don't care

James Marinero reposted

I may not be able to talk, but my vote can’t be silenced! I voted early and in less than 10 minutes. Check out your local early voting sites and VOTE 🗳️

Taiwan’s air corridor is a live single point of failure for leading-edge AI accelerators. Most NVIDIA-class GPUs still finish in Taiwan (logic + CoWoS packaging) and leave by air. Capacity is already tight, sea freight adds weeks, and there’s no near-term substitute reservoir.🔽

James Marinero reposted

Here’s a message for the naysayers that are complaining about what is — and isn’t — happening in my case against AG Todd Blanche: I AM NOT SURRENDERING. I know the value of my work and I know what it means to be fighting for truth and accountability. I know what this case means for the survivors.

James Marinero reposted

Of great interest!

NOELREPORTS@noelreports.com

❗️🔥BREAKING: Ukraine’s Navy says it destroyed six Russian Su-34M fighter-bombers at the Borisoglebsk military airfield in Voronezh Oblast overnight. The strike was carried out with Ukraine’s Neptune coastal missile system. #Ukraine

James Marinero reposted

BREAKING: @democracydefendersfund.org & partners just sued ICE over a nasty catch-22 ICE detains people, takes their IDs & work papers, releases them, keeps the papers. Now they can't work & risk getting picked up again for having no ID We're going to court to get it ALL back -TN

Understanding conflict outcomes: The seemingly overwhelming power of the USA is unable after 8 months of 2026 to vanquish Iran which has had 47 years to harden itself. in our model USA scores 48, Iran 79. The answers are deeply buried, almost literally. and soft too. gvindex.io/conflict-set

James Marinero reposted

FAFO: Orban may stand trial over the illegal detention of an Oschadbank convoy and seizure of funds. As suspected at the time, it seems likely Orban personally ordered the illegal action for political reasons. I look forward to seeing that asshole's perp walk after conviction.

Carney announced a new million-barrel pipe to the Pacific. A 10% US energy tariff has been on the books since March 2025; USMCA-qualified barrels can still clear. Canadian barrels are the heavy feedstock US refineries are tuned to. First new oil flow planned for 2032. gvindex.io/tariffs-are-...

gvindex.ioEU China trade diversion: tariffs are valvesA US tariff does not retire Chinese capacity. It marks a door restricted, and the goods arrive in Europe. Canada’s new oil pipe is a precaution, not a barrel.

Yanbu is loading again. Perim still owns the exit. Petroline is back at 2.65 mn b/d, not 5.5. Asia still chooses Hormuz or a halved Bab. Oman STS working The scarce barrel is diesel. Europe’s crack cleared $100. StanChart has prices elevated through 2027. jamesmarinero.substack.com/p/yanbu-is-l...

jamesmarinero.substack.comYanbu Is Loading Again. Perim Still Owns the Exit.Petroline is back at 2.65 million barrels a day, not 5.5. The Oman yard does not empty because a Red Sea door cracks. Asia still has to choose Hormuz or Bab-el-Mandeb

James Marinero reposted

It's inconceivable to me how someone who lost in a free & fair election can incite an angry mob to attack his own government, (the very definition of treason) & be allowed to run for any office ever again.

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High world diesel should have been a windfall. With the ban on, it is a bill: the damper pays refiners to sell at home. That is price without volume. 3/4

Russia was the world’s No. 2 diesel exporter. Ukraine broke the stills. Moscow banned the exports. The army, the harvest and the shop now share one scarce fuel. 2/4

James Marinero reposted

🇺🇦👀 "We will find a countermeasure to the Russian drones and will definitely prepare our response. And we will hold out. A day longer than they do," — Budanov

Saudi oil transfers to the fleet off Oman, now full. A 2nd transfer station off India would raise throughput but not open a new door. Empty VLCCs still have to return to Hormuz. 7 million b/d is a rebound, not a reopening. Iran's offer is on the table. jamesmarinero.substack.com/p/the-omani-...

jamesmarinero.substack.comThe Omani Lightering Ground is at Full Capacity. Perim Already Took The Other Door.Saudi barrels left Yanbu and filled the ship-to-ship (STS) anchorage off Oman. A second pad off India would raise throughput. It would not open a new door.

Nuclear warheads do not stop massed drone attacks. Russia’s MOD said it downed about 1,110 Ukrainian drones across the country, Crimea and the Black Sea (20/9) A nuclear state claims more than 1,000 drones shot down and still has a refinery burning in the capital. gvindex.io/nuclearlimits