Garvan Walshe

Garvan Walshe

@garvanwalshe.org

Civic entrepreneur building broadsheet social media at kronkite.social. Lobbyist for electric planes. I chair Unhack Democracy, do green libertarianism @ epicenternetwork.eu My substackSurvival & Success on liberalism and globalisation: garvanwalshe.org

4.2K followers526 following6.6K posts

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Twenty five minutes to go until polls close in Israel. Netanyahu is a kind of Houdini and escaped many a vice before, but that he wanted polls to open longer and this opponent didn’t, is a hint he may be in trouble 🧵 A thread coming. 🧵

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Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

People like Nafthali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman are by no means left wing or peaceniks but Netanyahu’s duplicity incompetence and corruption has driven them away from their more natural belief

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Twenty five minutes to go until polls close in Israel. Netanyahu is a kind of Houdini and escaped many a vice before, but that he wanted polls to open longer and this opponent didn’t, is a hint he may be in trouble 🧵 A thread coming. 🧵

View full thread
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

For tactical reasons the anti -Netanyahu bloc pretended they were looking for a majority without the Arab parties but everyone knows (including the Israeli voters) those are “campaign promises”

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Twenty five minutes to go until polls close in Israel. Netanyahu is a kind of Houdini and escaped many a vice before, but that he wanted polls to open longer and this opponent didn’t, is a hint he may be in trouble 🧵 A thread coming. 🧵

View full thread
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Twenty five minutes to go until polls close in Israel. Netanyahu is a kind of Houdini and escaped many a vice before, but that he wanted polls to open longer and this opponent didn’t, is a hint he may be in trouble 🧵 A thread coming. 🧵

View full thread
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

It’s hard to see the Netanyahu bloc managing based on these numbers. The anti Netanyahu parties including the Arab ones (And Ra’am had a Jewish Zionist as number 2 on its list) are around 70 seats. Netanyahu’s bloc 50.

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Twenty five minutes to go until polls close in Israel. Netanyahu is a kind of Houdini and escaped many a vice before, but that he wanted polls to open longer and this opponent didn’t, is a hint he may be in trouble 🧵 A thread coming. 🧵

View full thread
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

The Knesset only needs to vote for a new PM by a majority of members who actually cast a vote, so some anti Netanyahu parties’ promises not to go into coalition with them should be taken either a pinch of salt

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Likud (Netanyahu’s party) topped the poll but this looks to have come at a cost in votes for other parties that might have supported him.

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Twenty five minutes to go until polls close in Israel. Netanyahu is a kind of Houdini and escaped many a vice before, but that he wanted polls to open longer and this opponent didn’t, is a hint he may be in trouble 🧵 A thread coming. 🧵

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Anti Netanyahu bloc bigger than pro-Netanyahu bloc according to all exit polls. In practice Arab parties will not block an anti-Netanyahu government.

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Unambitious. Maybe they could try Netanyahu who’ll probably be out of a job too. Newly available Vucic could be made spokesman.

Finbarr Bermingham@fbermingham.bsky.social

Washington plans for Viktor Orban to be a "joint candidate" for the US, China and Russia to be UN secretary general, WSJ reports www.wsj.com/opinion/...

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Significant upset in Bulgarian exit polls, confirmed by the other exit polls

Europe Elects@europeelects.bsky.social

Bulgaria, Myara exit poll: Presidential election, first round today Iotova (*~NI|S&D|*): 35.2% (+35.2) Gyurov (*-RE|EPP|Greens/EFA): 32.2% (+32.2) Kostadinov (V-ESN): 13.4% (+13.4) Vasilev (MECh-*): 3.8% (+3.8) ... +/- vs. Last election result ➤ europeelects.eu/bulgaria

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

One: this is welcome Two: Burnham is the first PM in some time who’s remembered that he’s PM, so can set the agenda.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social

Prime Minister Andy Burnham says he wants a more 'honest conversation' about freedom of movement, suggesting it could work better than post-Brexit immigration has. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

thetimes.comAndy Burnham is open to adopting EU free movementThe PM calls for an honest conversation, saying pre-Brexit migration was not ‘as difficult’ as it is now

Garvan Walshe reposted

John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social

A significant shift, however much the circular migration point is overdone. Here's my piece on why this matters from two weeks ago www.arguably.uk/p/eu-free-mo...

arguably.ukEU free movement is an opportunity, not a threatProgressives need to rediscover the positive case for immigration
Matthew Holehouse@matthewholehouse.bsky.social

The real inversion is Burnham defending freedom of movement on merits, to the benefit of Britons; rather than a "price to be paid" for market access. For the first time by a PM since.... 2004...?

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Greece, Ireland and Spain which boast robust fiscal health could form a troika to oversee necessary public spending restructuring.

euobserver — EU news that matters@euobserver.com

[Interview] ‘If stress in France ends up contaminating the rest of the eurozone, the ECB will have to do something,’ says French economist

euobserver.com[Interview] ‘If stress in France ends up contaminating the rest of the eurozone, the ECB will have to do something,’ says French economistFrance needs spending cuts, but its politics can’t deliver them. Former Macron adviser and economist Shahin Vallée on the protests, Le Pen and Mélenchon’s debt plans, and the dilemma holding back ECB intervention.
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Reminds me of a Horizon application I did: A consortium of organisations from different countries: fine, indeed a requirement of the process An organisation with personnel in three countries: oh no how do we audit that You mean if we guarantee the four freedoms people might…use them

David Henig@davidheniguk.bsky.social

Hadn't realised that as many as 1 in 3 full timers work mainly from home. Once again, this isn't the labour market or economy as imagined by most politicians. cepr.org/voxeu/column...

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Hmm…this isn’t without uses but replacing qualitative input isn’t one of them this is like the guy from Cameron/Osborne’s office who thought the census could be replaced by representative polling.

Nicolai von Ondarza@nvondarza.bsky.social

This is pretty dystopian and likely to warp political understanding - UK Parlamentarians are according to @bloomberg.com increasingly using teams of 'representative' AI agents as focus groups, which is cheaper than getting real voters together:

bloomberg.comUK Politicians Are Testing Their Messages on AI-Generated VotersUK politicians looking to gauge how British voters will react to their policies have a new cohort on which to test their ideas: AI-generated focus groups.

Garvan Walshe reposted

Anton Shekhovtsov
@shekhovtsov.substack.com

Leaked WhatsApps between ex-EU commissioner Reynders and senior Belgian spy reveal attempts to bury allegations of his possible Russia ties. buff.ly/pVAgdFy

buff.ly[EXCLUSIVE] Leaked WhatsApps between ex-EU commissioner Reynders and senior Belgian spy reveal attempts to bury allegations of his possible Russia tiesThe messages, seen by EUobserver and published here in full, now form evidence in a Belgian police investigation into Reynders on money-laundering charges, which paints them in a potentially criminal…
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

It shouldn’t be an EU principal as long as the others are not principals. To balance out Witkoff we should send someone like Toomas Ilves

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦@maks23.bsky.social

According to Politico's sources, potential candidates for the negotiator include Ursula von der Leyen, António Costa, and Kaja Kallas. Some European diplomats, however, believe that Finnish President Alexander Stubb may be the most suitable candidate.

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Interesting - but Microsoft and Meta have real businesses in software and advertising they can use to pay leases back even if (when) the AI bust happens. OpenAI and Anthropic not so much. Google’s in the middle.

Giles Wilkes@gilesyb.bsky.social

This point from @matt-levine.bsky.social about the systemic unhedgeable nature of AI risk is worth bookmarking

Garvan Walshe reposted

Rob Francis
@robfranciseu.bsky.social

One of Brussels' leading think tanks didn't exactly hold back when they analysed the Franco-German paper on cars, and specifically the restrictive 'Made in Europe' provisions therein. Worth a read. Here's our recap borderlex.net/2026/10/21/b...

borderlex.netBruegel: Franco-German car plan breaches WTO rules and FTA commitments - Borderlex - European trade policyThe Franco-German plan to protect Europe’s car industry “marries the worst of German and French political instincts”, Brussels-based think tank Bruegel said in a new report.
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

See also: the West-European economy - though at least in a market economy new sectors can arise before the complexifyers get in the way (This is Schumpeter’s main point in Capitalism Socialism and Democracy)

This post is unavailable.

Garvan Walshe reposted

Ian Bond
@cerianbond.bsky.social

Why is the UK sending fighters to Saudi Arabia to defend it against Houthi missiles, but won't send them to Ukraine to defend it against the much more devastating strikes from Russia? Strategically as well as morally, Ukraine deserves our help. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.ukUK to deploy jets to defend Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacksThe UK announces it will provide additional defensive military support to Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks escalate in the region.
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Oh I mlsread the Trump tweet, sorry! But the time will surely come when he demands the renaming of the Estados Unidos de México

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Perhaps early but: to those parts of the right who threw their lot in with national populists: You could get the left wing in power in UK, Australia, US Congress and France The centre right was the most successful route to power in democracy’s history. You threw it away to follow to Matt Goodwin.

Garvan Walshe@garvanwalshe.org

🧐 Glucksmann above Philippe Poll done after G got socialist nomination but before latest riots

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

🧐 Glucksmann above Philippe Poll done after G got socialist nomination but before latest riots

Europe Elects@europeelects.bsky.social

France, Elabe poll: Scenario: Attal (RE-RE) and Philippe (HOR-RE) run Presidential election Le Pen (RN-PfE): 32.5% Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 15.5% Glucksmann (PS/PP-S&D): 15.5% Philippe (HOR-RE): 13.5% ... Fieldwork: 14-16 October 2026 Sample size: 1,701 ➤ europeelects.eu/france

Garvan Walshe reposted

Ian Bond
@cerianbond.bsky.social

This is a v misleading headline. Trump, Putin & Xi can agree what they like; it won't stop the war, because Putin's aim is to destroy Ukraine as a state & eliminate Ukrainian identity; no Ukrainian leader cd accept that. Europe shd ignore noises off, & step up military aid to UA & sanctions on RU.

POLITICO Europe@politico.eu

Kyiv and the European Union face being cut out of a potential high-level summit to negotiate a deal on ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.

politico.comRussia explores Putin, Trump, Xi summit on Ukraine dealThe Wall Street Journal reported that talks could take places in the Chinese city of Shenzhen in November.
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Of course the best way to achieve left wing socio economic policy goals is an open economy where genuine public goods are paid through some sort of state provision and the rest is left to people’s free choices in a competitive market…

Jonathan Portes@jdportes.bsky.social

A great post by @lastpositivist.bsky.social about the "ostrich tendency" on the left (very prevalent here!) of those who are unwilling "to acknowledge the possibility of the average person in an advanced western economy simply not being markedly poor." sootyempiric.blogspot.com/2026/10/the-...

sootyempiric.blogspot.comThe Poor, The Personal, and the ProletariatJust a short kvetch about something that I feel often causes confusion among online left wing people and where I feel we could do better if ...
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Fair enough, it was under Frederick II

Nicholas Whithorn@nickwhithorn.bsky.social

Forza Italia politician aiming to become Governor of Sicily in next year's elections says that Sicily has the potential to become "Singapore in the Mediterranean". Frankly, we'd just like to be Sicily at its full potential.

lasicilia.itLa candidatura alle Regionali? «Il tempo è adesso», Giorgio Mulè cita "antudo" e accelera in vista del votoIl vicepresidente della Camera sollecita il tavolo nazionale a chiudere subito sui nomi per le grandi città e per la Regione: «La Sicilia? Può essere la Singapore del Mediterraneo»
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Quite!

Ruth Deyermond@ruthdeyermond.bsky.social

In that respect, the sanctions bill always seemed to be an extension of the broader role that Lindsey Graham played on US Russia policy in Trump's 2nd term: minimising domestic and NATO pressure on Trump by creating the illusion that Trump might, finally, be about to get tough.

Garvan Walshe reposted

Alex Faludy
@alexander-faludy.bsky.social

‘Signs of greater social solidarity among Hungarians may bode well for the country’s democratic resiliance’ My peice for the RUSI Journal on #Hungary’s current transition is out now. Gift link in comments.

Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe.org

Keminaissance

British Voter@britishvoter.bsky.social

I'm a White British non-religious woman from Feltham and Heston, in my seventies. My top issue is the state of our politics. In 2024 I voted Lib Dem. Today I'd vote Conservative.