Eric Taborek

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Temperature departures around the world averaged over the last three months... 🟥 warmer than average 🟦 colder than average Data from data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

Breaking News! The preliminary Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly for Sept. 29th came in at 3.18°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. This marks yet another record all-time high and the 123rd consecutive record daily high at 1.1°C above the previous daily record set in 1997.

“I have never seen this many open records requests in such a short time,” "People working on climate-related issues are “unwelcome in the U.S.,” he said." Inside the anti-climate campaign against researchers via @politico.com at www.politico.com/news/2026/09...

Your 'moment of doom' for Sept. 24, 2026 ~ Not bloody likely. “The day is coming when our momentum will overtake the resistance ... The remaining question is whether we will win it in time to avoid those negative tipping points I talked about.” www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

The latest data has the global surface temperature for August 25th at 1.76°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline and more than 4 standard deviations above the 1991-2020 baseline. The planet hasn't been this hot in over 120,000 years. The Climate 8-ball is drunk again.

“The slowest-moving train wreck in history.” Megafaunal extinction: millennia. Climate change: centuries. Chemical toxins: decades. Disasters that unfold more slowly than human memory can remain invisible. Then, when the final stage arrives, we call it a crisis.

Here’s a graphic projecting massive and devastating #climate driven drying out of soils right across Europe by mid-century… …oh wait, sorry, that’s an ACTUAL reading from August 10th last. My mistake.

American campaign finance in a nutshell:

Yesterday I showed how global sea ice cover has taken a rapid tumble, so here's a closer look at that change in #Antarctic sea ice. It's currently the 2nd lowest extent on record for the date. See more at zacklabe.com/antarctic-se.... Data from @nsidc.bsky.social.

The Constitution will be 239 yrs old Sept 17th. Jefferson believed "the world belongs to the living" & expected future generations to tailor their government to suit their times. He compared the Founders work product to clothes on a child. Future amendments were expected. Flawed? Then fix it.

Up it goes 🫣 Climate indicator from zacklabe.com/climate-chan...

Wednesday El Niño update - Some notable warming across a large part of the eastern half of the tropical Pacific Ocean during the last 7 days. And an ongoing strong westerly wind burst will continue to strengthen El Niño even further toward record territory. Data from NOAA OISSTv2.1. 🌊

Whilst the cost of living crisis continues to spiral, with food and fuel prices soaring, so do global oil and gas companies profits. Shell has today announced it's profits have more than doubled. This is obscene. www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Your 'moment of doom' for July 17, 2026 ~ I get 10.7 gimps (giga mugs per second). "the oceans are now absorbing the equivalent of some 7.6 billion cups of hot tea every second. That’s almost one cup every second for every person on the planet..." www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-chan...

Wednesday El Niño update - Sea surface temperature anomalies have jumped a bit in the last few days in the important Niño region 3.4 (record high). The warm pool is also extending pretty far east already! Conditions look favorable for more strengthening in the near-term. Data from NOAA OISSTv2.1. 🌊

Breaking News! Code: y-axis alert! As of July 5th, the Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly has now crossed 1.80°C above the 1991-2020 mean. ' The Nino 3.4 SST is now 3.46 standard deviations above the 1991-2020 mean:

One of the big stories with this upcoming heat wave will be the dangerous overnight temperatures. Lows won't fall below 70°F, or even 80°F in places. This is consistent with the long-term warming trend and poses serious risks to human health. More U.S. climate visuals: zacklabe.com/united-state...

What they taught in school: GDP up = good. What they left out: The atmosphere has a limit Soil can die Water runs out 8 billion people need a living planet, not just a growing economy

432.35 parts per million (ppm) CO2 in air 10-Jun-2026 keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

DOJ Launches Criminal Investigation Into All Women

🚨The OMB rule will be the end of science as we know it. MARK YOU CALENDAR for @standupforscience.net EMERGENCY SCIENCE MEETING June 2nd, 4pm et. We will be giving an overview & assigning EVERY SCIENTIST IN AMERICA their marching orders. REGISTER: events.standupforscience.net/stand-up-for...

431.15 parts per million (ppm) CO2 in air 23-Apr-2026 keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

Pretty extraordinary that the U.S. is experiencing its worst March drought on record, worse even than the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s. Drought is the most dangerous threat of climate change.

Breaking: A new review paper of the tipping point risk of the Atlantic ocean circulation system known as #AMOC has been published. 🌊 The evidence has broadened over the last years that the present AMOC is in a multi-stable regime, posing a risk of tipping 😨. dx.doi.org/10.1002/wcc....

That is critical: Fire weather index FWI: "By decomposing FWI, we show that temperature and humidity dominate the recent increase in fire weather risk, supported by a substantial elevation in vapor pressure deficit over the pan-Arctic region" In other words the Arctic will burn as it is dried out

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As the first reanalysis data become available, I think I can say with a fairly high degree of confidence that the March 2026 heatwave will go down as the most anomalously extreme heat event ever observed at any time of year in the southwestern U.S.

I'll have more to say about this by Tuesday, but...yeah. No Miracle March in the cards for Western snowpack this year--quite the opposite, in fact. I'll take a closer look and have a livestream and blog post soon to discuss.

The more you know ... The Earth has gained the equivalent of about 5.7 *billion* Hiroshima bombs worth of planetary heating since January, 2000. About 89% of that heat went into heating the oceans. The rest to melt ice and snow, heat land and heat the atmosphere.

Whew. All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event. I'll have more to say in coming weeks & months, but for now I'll just say that this is increasingly likely to become a major regional-to-global climate driver in 2026-2027.

429.49 parts per million (ppm) CO2 in air 28-Feb-2026 keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

Science-based policies could successfully limit human-caused climate change, but when political parties are allowed to accept money from special interests, policies are distorted to the point of being ineffective. See Politics: tiny.cc/9f6z001 Also available on Substack: tiny.cc/cf6z001

Just noticed a notable uptick on my annual 2026 projection in the climate dashboard: dashboard.theclimate... Thought it might be a bug, but it turns out that the ENSO plume model was just updated with a much higher likelihood for El Nino development: iri.columbia.edu/our...

Breaking News! Code Gobsmacking Bananas!!! As of Feb. 21, 2026, global sea-surface temperatures are above 21.0°C (at 21.02°C), the second hottest on record for the date. With a looming El Nino ahead later this year, global SSTs are likely heading towards a new record maximum.

Is there a stall in the ENSO transition ? Were we tricked by the uncertainty window?

We hate you for free!!!!! #Epstein #EpsteinFiles

"Trump Issues a Death Sentence on Our Children, Grandchildren and the Planet With His Payoff to the Fossil Fuel Industry" | My interview with Ian Masters of #BackgroundBriefing courtesy of @kpfk.bsky.social So. Cal public radio: soundcloud.com/user-8304426...

We do not listen well...

IPCC models might deem it highly unlikely, but Global warming reaching +2.0°C next decade is much more likely when considering NASA CERES satellite observations based climate forcings and feedbacks. We'd better assume observations are more indicative of reality than models alone:

The January 2026 front page of The Onion newspaper. Never miss out again and become a member here: https://membership.theonion.com/?campaign=701cx00000IyUfBAAV

The #ClimateCrisis is not a distant threat. It is already shaping our world through extreme weather, infrastructure stress, economic instability, and ecosystem collapse. Heatwaves, droughts, floods, and storms are becoming more intense and frequent. Be ready ➡️ rebellion.global/xreadiness/

And here is the corresponding global upper ocean heat content (0 to 700 m depth) for 2025 and set a new record too... 🔥 Data (shown as anomalies on the graph) and methods from: www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/globa...

Breaking News! Code Yikes! In case you missed the news, as of January 17th, Arctic sea-ice extent once again dipped to a new record daily low, over 50,000 km² below the previous record daily low set just last year. The Climate 8-Ball says, "Il est déjà trop tard."

Last month observed well above average sea surface temperatures in areas surrounding the Arctic Ocean. This was especially notable in the Labrador Sea near Greenland and Baltic Sea. Data from NOAA OISSTv2.1 at www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/opt... 🌊