Prof. Eliot Jacobson

Yesterday (Oct. 26) marked the 150th consecutive day that the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature set a new record daily high, at 30.22°C (preliminary). This was more than 1.13°C above the previous record daily high set in 2015, as well as a record 3.49°C above the 1991-2020 baseline.

Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 27, 2026 ~ SLR "On Monday morning, high tide brought water pouring into business districts in Newport Beach and flooded part of Pacific Coast Highway in Sunset Beach... Conditions are expected to get worse Tuesday." www.latimes.com/california/s...

Your 'doom quote' for today: "Facing a future of accelerating climate change while blind to worst-case scenarios is naive risk management at best and fatally foolish at worst." www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Spooky! It now looks like the 4-year running mean for the global surface temperature anomaly will reach 1.500°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline on October 28th. The Climate 8-Ball will be dressing like a 9-Ball for Halloween. Stay tuned!

My latest on Substack: climatecasino.substack.com/p/yet-anothe...

Breaking News! Code: y-Axis Alert! Yesterday's Nino 3.4 preliminary sea-surface temperature anomaly set a new record high, at 3.48°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. To clearly show this anomaly, the y-axis max was raised to 4.0°C. Attention historians: this is gobsmackingly bananas.

Your 'hope porn quote' for today: "The window in which a different future is still possible is narrowing, but it remains open. We have credible pathways, the capacity to act and a goal worth the work. What 2030 requires is that we use them." wwflpr.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/li...

Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 26, 2026 ~ The less you know ... "Countries have failed – for the sixth time running – to agree on the timeline for publishing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) next set of influential reports." www.carbonbrief.org/qa-why-a-piv...

I apologize for not being on top of this landmark crossing, but the global sea-surface temperature is once again in "gobsmackingly bananas" territory. The Climate 8-Ball says: uncharted territory dead ahead!

Maximum global sea-ice extent usually occurs in early November. As of October 25th, this year's global sea-ice extent currently ranks 3rd lowest for the day, just 40,000 km² above the record daily low set in 2023. Will 2026 see a new record low maximum? Stay tuned!

Here's the updated daily color stripes for the Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly, now based on the 1991-2020 baseline and with a color bar going past black (3.0°C) into pink and beyond.

Your 'doom quote' for today: "The human species will survive somehow but we will destroy almost everything we have built up over the last two thousand years. I am pretty sure." theecologist.org/2019/jan/03/...

The Climate 8-Ball just updated and simplified its p(Doom) forecast, incorporating the latest AI and climate reports and events. As before, the Climate 8-ball is arrogantly refusing to answer any questions about this chart.

CERES just released its August data. Here's the latest update on the 12-month running average for Earth albedo showing a slight increase. The Climate Casino is speculating that it is due to more reflective clouds across the central and eastern Pacific ocean due to El Nino.

Here are the latest daily color stripes for the Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly. Time to update the color bar ... going from black through bright pink and then to?

The anomalies in this image are with respect to the 1981-2010 baseline and are a 5-day running mean. Add ≈0.69°C to convert to the 1850-1900 IPCC pre-industrial. Forecast global anomaly on October 31st: 2.06°C above pre-industrial. The Climate Casino is taking the UNDER.

Here's the 30-day running average anomaly for the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature. The last 30 days have averaged a record 3.29°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. The forecast is a peak between 3.4°C and 3.5°C in late November. Will we need to extend the y-axis again? Stay tuned!

y-axis alert! www.karstenhaustein.com/climate

Your 'doom quote' for today: "It’s extraordinary to realise that we are witnessing the great unravelling; the beginning of the end of things. I honestly never thought I’d live to see the start of what sometimes feels like the apocalypse." www.climatecodered.org/2023/06/what...

In order to "narrowly exceed 2024 to become the warmest year on record" the remainder of 2026 would have to average 1.98°C above the pre-industrial baseline or hotter (Copernicus data). Zeke: The Climate Casino is taking the UNDER if it pays 24-to-1. berkeleyearth.org/september-20...

On 2.0°C watch. The global temperature anomaly for October 22nd was 1.94°C above the 1850-1900 IPCC pre-industrial baseline and set a new daily record. The Climate 8-Ball is hiding in the corner.

Breaking News! Code UFB!!! It takes 2 weeks to confirm ocean sea surface temperatures and the long wait is finally over. The first day in recorded history with Nino 3.4 SST at or above 30.0°C is now officially on the record. October 7, 2026: 30.000°C. climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_dai...

Your 'doom quote' for today: "A key indicator is the Earth's energy imbalance, which measures how fast heat is accumulating in the climate system... Without human influence, it should be close to zero, but it has been growing since the 1970s and is now at a record high, doubling in recent decades.”

Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 23, 2026 ~ So it goes. "In just a year, the projections for how much temperatures will rise even if governments keep their pledges has risen by two tenths of a degree Celsius" billmckibben.substack.com/p/elections-...

As expected, the Godzilla El Niño is increasing outgoing longwave radiation as the planet heats up, temporarily reducing the Earth Energy Imbalance. In other words, over the past 12 months the Earth has been heating at an average rate of about 1.15 million Hiroshimas per Day.

Your Friday water-cooler fun fact: The global mean surface temperature on Wednesday, October 21st was 1.89°C above pre-industrial, setting a new daily record dating back to 1940, and likely the warmest October 21st (one month past the Fall equinox) in the last 120,000 years.

Back from 4 days "into the woods" and what greets me? Fucking windows. At least this guy has the nerve to say the window is closed. www.cnn.com/2026/10/21/c...

Must watch. youtu.be/yJyQXGynwsg?...

Yikes!

The latest update to region Nino 3.4 sea surface temperatures is not only a new record daily High, but also a new record anomaly, now 3.46 C above the 1991 to 2020 Baseline.

After I put up today's doom posts, the Climate 8-Ball advised me to take a short break from my daily "doom quote" and "moment of doom." I'll resume my daily 'doom' posts on Friday, more or less. However, according to the Climate 8-Ball, other posts are not embargoed.

There's excitement in the air! It now looks like the 4-year anomaly will break 1.50°C long before the date the Climate Casino previously gave of November 17th and could possibly break 1.50°C by the end of October! Winning!

Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 18, 2026 ~ Getting closer. "On one end of the spectrum are the doomers. These are often activists and whistleblowers who feel a genuine sense of dread about imminent disaster, and want to inspire the same alarm in others." www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Your 'doom quote' for today: "The carbon cycle is ignorant of our windows and timetables, our 'foreseeable future'." www.thriftbooks.com/w/losing-ear...

Your 'doom quote' for today: "The carbon cycle is ignorant of our windows and timetables, our 'foreseeable future'." www.thriftbooks.com/w/losing-ear...

Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 17, 2026 ~ Don't cry for me, Antarctica! "Reality: The doomsday glacier has crossed stability thresholds where internal momentum sustains ice discharge for generations, regardless of cooling interventions." cristinaiglesias.com/newsday/anta...

Your 'doom quote' for today: "Arrhenius ran the math again and calculated that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide would raise the Earth's temperature by 5°C or even 6°C (9°F or 10.8°F)." [1896, later he corrected it to 4°C] www.thriftbooks.com/w/our-bigges...

The 'Planetary Health Check' for 2026 wins! Thank you to Sam Mitchell for pointing this out. Source: publications.pik-potsdam.de/rest/items/i...

Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 16, 2026 ~ Seneca cliff "In the face of ever more extreme and unpredictable climate risks, I am coming under pressure to cut my forecasts for the losses that disasters will cause in order to make insurance more affordable – and get my employer more business."

Your 'doom quote' for today: "Exxon was buying up vintage wine to chase carbon isotopes back when it was doing climate change research while scientists are fighting over whether to hire a postdoc or run an outreach program." www.thriftbooks.com/w/our-bigges...

The pre-industrial 1850-1900 baseline had 15.5°C as the average annual global maximum temperature. Times have changed. So far this year the planet has seen 160 days above 15.5°C, currently in a tie with 2024 for the most such days, followed by 2023 with 154 and 2025 with 152.

Your 'doom quote' for today: "For several decades, scientists have consistently warned of a future marked by extreme climatic conditions because of escalating global temperatures caused by ongoing human activities that release harmful GHGs into the atmosphere. Unfortunately, time is up."

Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 15, 2026 ~ Fresh air! "But, in all honesty, none of that has a chance of happening any time soon. As a result, the world will become hotter, more fractured, more prone to conflict, less equal and a lot angrier." www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Breaking News! Code Yikes! As of October 13, the year-to-date global surface temperature anomaly is 1.50°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. Where will 2026 end up? The Climate Casino is taking the OVER on 1.55°C and the UNDER on 1.60°C. Stay tuned!

My latest on Substack: climatecasino.substack.com/p/earths-vit...

The preliminary Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature for October 13 just broke 30°C for the third time, and is now 3.3°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. This marks the 22nd consecutive daily temperature above the previous all-time record high of 29.815°C. set on Nov. 17, 2015.

Your 'bonus moment of doom' for today: "Earth’s climate system is moving deeper into uncharted territory. We present the 2026 update of planetary vital signs that track the state of Earth’s climate system ... Of 16 climate-related indicators, seven are currently at record extremes."

Your 'moment of doom' for Oct. 14, 2026 ~ Winning? "This year, global sea level, global ocean heat content, worldwide glacier thickness, the mass of the Greenland ice sheet, and the atmospheric concentration of each of the three most common greenhouse gases are at record extremes."