Aucoin Analytics

Aucoin Analytics

@aucoinanalytics.com

Geopolitical intelligence expert, writer, and ex-SOF Intelligence analyst. Host of This Week Explained podcast, focused on deciphering complex geopolitical events. Updates on Russia, the Middle East, and beyond—follow for need-to-know analysis.

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Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

The U.S. military is shifting from expensive missiles to autonomous systems, and Ukraine is the proving ground. It’s cheaper, it takes less human toll, and it’s all aimed at one scenario: a large-scale conflict with China. #China #DefenseTech #Geopolitics

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

Targeting decisions on the battlefield used to take days—now they take minutes. In my latest hit on NTD News, I break down the rapid evolution of AI-driven autonomous drone warfare and what the newly announced U.S. Autonomous Division means for future near-peer conflicts.

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

Intelligence describes what is and what might happen. It does not tell policymakers what to do. The moment a report starts recommending action, it's crossed into advocacy. That line matters more than people think.

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

New: I'm now bookable on @EveryExpert. If you or your team need real intelligence tradecraft applied to a real question, Iran, the Sahel, or standing up a GSOC/threat intel function, you can book time with me directly. 24 years doing this for real. www.everyexpert.com/kervinaucoin

everyexpert.comKervin Aucoin - translating 20+ years of intelligence tradecraft into decisions businesses and professionals can act on. - EveryExpertThrough 20+ years of intelligence experience Kervin is able to provide support to companies standing up a GSOC, threat intel function, or protective intell...
Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

Direction, collection, processing, analysis, dissemination, feedback. It's a loop, not a pipeline. Most public confusion about "bad intelligence" actually happens at dissemination, when the finished judgment gets edited for an audience.

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

People think intelligence means spies. Most of it is HUMINT (human sources), SIGINT (signals), IMINT/GEOINT (imagery), OSINT (open source), and MASINT (technical signatures). Different disciplines, different failure modes. Know which one you're reading.

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

Nine straight nights of U.S. strikes on Iran. Three U.S. troops dead in 48 hours, 17 since February. Both sides call their strikes deterrence, but every exchange resets the threshold higher. Wars slip their leash exactly this way, one retaliation at a time.

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Institute for the Study of War
@thestudyofwar.bsky.social

Replying to @thestudyofwar.bsky.social

3/ The PRC, DPRK, and Russia conducted aerial and naval incursions into South Korea’s ADIZ and near the NLL on June 27, provoking a South Korean response. The PRC and Russia are signaling their desire for greater cooperation with DPRK and willingness to encroach upon South Korean territory.

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

For most of this war, Moscow was the one place it stayed an idea instead of a fact. Now the smoke is overhead, and the response from the top is a silence everyone reads off the same script. A state that manages its message this carefully is worried about how it lands at home.

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

The 60-day ceasefire isn't peace. The memorandum reads like progress, but the timeline is carrying weight neither side has earned. That's why experts aren't celebrating. They're counting days. Let me know your thoughts. Will there be peace in 60 days or just another delayed ceasefire?

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

Trump's Truth Social post suggested bombing Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Let's drop the spin. Striking active minelayers is legally justified. Blanket targeting is not. Breaking down international law and the tactical reality in the Middle East. 🚢 #Geopolitics #Defense #News

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

📣 New Podcast! "Transactional Peace: Redrawing Maps from Kyiv to Tehran" on @Spreaker #board #conference #conflict #energy #foreign #geneva #geopolitics #global #grid #iran #kinetic #munich #of #peace #policy #security #talks #trump #ukraine #veto

spreaker.comTransactional Peace: Redrawing Maps from Kyiv to TehranThe old global safety nets are dissolving. This week, we explore a world caught between a "kinetic veto" in Ukraine, a billion-dollar "pay-to-play" model for global governance, and a massive U.S. military build-up in the Gulf. "This Week Explained" breaks down the week's most important geopolitical events, delivering sharp analysis on how these developments shape government policies, influence business decisions, and impact society. Join the experts at Aucoin Analytics, LLC as they cut through the noise and provide clear, actionable insights for the road ahead.
Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

📣 New Podcast! "Sanctions, Ceasefires, and Gunboats" on @Spreaker

spreaker.comSanctions, Ceasefires, and GunboatsThe world is walking a tightrope between desperately holding on to peace and the aggressive projection of power that threatens to shatter it. This week, we analyze the West's hardened stance on Russia, the precarious "yellow line" defining Gaza's future , and a massive U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean that may have less to do with cartels and more to do with China. Episode Highlights - A New Strategy on Russia: We break down the abrupt U.S. shift from diplomacy to direct sanctions against Russia's largest oil companies and the EU's unprecedented—and risky—plan to use €140 billion in frozen Russian assets as a "reparations loan" for Ukraine. - Gaza's Fragile Truce: An exploration of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire in Gaza, the political battle over the "yellow line" boundary that some in Israel's government hope to make permanent , and the stern U.S. warning that support for Israel is not a "blank check" for West Bank annexation. - Gunboat Diplomacy in the Caribbean: A deep dive into the massive U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean, examining the three strategic layers: the official war on cartels , the unspoken pressure campaign against Venezuela's Maduro regime , and the long-term goal of securing the Panama Canal from Chinese influence ahead of a potential 2026 crisis. - The Afghanistan-Pakistan Border War: We explain the dangerous cycle of attacks and retaliations between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban , a conflict fueled by Taliban protection of the TTP terrorist group and rooted in a century-old dispute over the colonial-era Durand Line.
Aucoin Analytics
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Let's take a closer look at the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict. While recent clashes are grabbing headlines, understanding the situation requires looking at two distinct but intertwined layers: a modern militant crisis and a deep historical grievance.

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Aucoin Analytics
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More fundamentally, there is the issue of the Durand Line. The refusal of any Afghan government to recognize this 1893 colonial-era border is central to Afghan national identity. For the Taliban, formally accepting it would be a catastrophic political concession.

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

The result is a fragile state of affairs. The ceasefire addresses the immediate violence but none of the core structural problems. What options does Pakistan have when its military and economic pressure have failed to show results? #geopolitics #foreignpolicy #afghanistan #pakistan #securitystudies

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

Let's take a closer look at the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict. While recent clashes are grabbing headlines, understanding the situation requires looking at two distinct but intertwined layers: a modern militant crisis and a deep historical grievance.

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

For years, Pakistan's strategic calculus was based on supporting the Afghan Taliban to project influence. With the Taliban in power, that leverage is gone. This has left Islamabad in a strategic bind. Use military and economic coercion against a government it helped create, with little success.

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

There's a multi-layered geopolitical chess match unfolding in the Caribbean, and the stated counter-narcotics mission is likely just the top layer. The massive U.S. military deployment signals a strategic re-evaluation of the region. Let's dig into the potential long-term play here. A 🧵

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Aucoin Analytics
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Venezuela represents a potential proxy threat. A U.S. force posture that effectively neutralizes Venezuela's ability to act on China's behalf—militarily or otherwise—is a preemptive strategic move.

Aucoin Analytics
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This deployment could therefore be seen as setting the chessboard for a potential 2026-2027 conflict timeline. What other second and third-order effects of this buildup should we be considering? Curious to hear your thoughts on the matter. #Geopolitics #USChina #NationalSecurity #ForeignPolicy

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

There's a multi-layered geopolitical chess match unfolding in the Caribbean, and the stated counter-narcotics mission is likely just the top layer. The massive U.S. military deployment signals a strategic re-evaluation of the region. Let's dig into the potential long-term play here. A 🧵

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

Beyond the obvious pressure on the Maduro regime, let's consider the China angle. The strategic importance of the Panama Canal cannot be overstated for U.S. force projection. In any INDOPACOM conflict scenario, the ability to rapidly swing naval assets from the Atlantic is non-negotiable.

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

📣 New Podcast! "The New World Disorder: Ukraine's Fate, Gaza's Power Vacuum, and the Gen-Z Uprising" on @Spreaker #affairs #budapest #foreign #gaza #geopolitics #global #intelligence #international #missiles #policy #power #putin #relations #shifting #summit #tomahawk #trump #ukraine #war

spreaker.comThe New World Disorder: Ukraine's Fate, Gaza's Power Vacuum, and the Gen-Z UprisingThis week, we explore a world in flux as global power dynamics are redrawn on multiple fronts. From high-stakes diplomacy that could change the map of the war in Ukraine to a brutal power vacuum in Gaza and a generational revolution in Africa, the old rules are fracturing. Episode Highlights - Ukraine's Diplomatic Gambit: A planned summit between Presidents Trump and Putin in Budapest aims to end the "inglorious' War". Meanwhile, President Trump uses the potential transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine as a powerful negotiation tool to bring Russia to the table. - Gaza's Violent Peace: With the war between Israel and Hamas over, a power vacuum has ignited an internal battle for control. Hamas is using brute force to hunt down rivals and assert absolute authority, leading to a "war of all against all" as armed gangs and clans settle old scores. - The Gen-Z Revolution in Madagascar: A youth-led protest movement against poverty and corruption has toppled the government, leading to a military takeover. We analyze this trend and where this dynamic of youth-driven political change could spread next, from Morocco to Peru. - U.S. Pressure on Venezuela: The Trump administration escalates a pressure campaign against the Maduro regime, using B-52 bomber flights, lethal strikes on "narco-terrorists," and the public acknowledgment of covert CIA operations inside the country.
Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

Beyond the headlines of this week's US-Russia-Ukraine diplomacy lies a complex strategic chess match. The announced Budapest summit is not just a meeting; it's the culmination of a high-risk diplomatic gambit centered on the threat of escalation. Let's break it down. 🧵

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Aucoin Analytics
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5/5 The key question now is about intent vs. outcome. Is this summit a genuine effort to find an off-ramp, or is it a tactic for all sides to gain time, manage domestic perceptions, and prepare for the next phase of the conflict? The initial advisor talks next week will provide the first clues.

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

Beyond the headlines of this week's US-Russia-Ukraine diplomacy lies a complex strategic chess match. The announced Budapest summit is not just a meeting; it's the culmination of a high-risk diplomatic gambit centered on the threat of escalation. Let's break it down. 🧵

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Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

3/5 For President Zelensky, the situation is precarious. While the threat of Tomahawks benefits Ukraine's position, he left Washington without the weapons themselves. He is reliant on the U.S. as a mediator but also risks being sidelined in a bilateral deal cut between Washington and Moscow.

Aucoin Analytics
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4/5 The choice of Budapest is a masterstroke of realpolitik. It leverages Hungary's unique political position and its withdrawal from the ICC to create the sole viable venue for this meeting, bypassing a major legal and diplomatic obstacle for Putin.

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

Beyond the headlines of this week's US-Russia-Ukraine diplomacy lies a complex strategic chess match. The announced Budapest summit is not just a meeting; it's the culmination of a high-risk diplomatic gambit centered on the threat of escalation. Let's break it down. 🧵

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

1/5 The core strategy from the White House appears to be one of "coercive diplomacy." By making the potential delivery of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine a public discussion point, the U.S. has created a powerful, non-military pressure point on the Kremlin.

Aucoin Analytics
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2/5 This presents Putin with a difficult choice: a) engage in talks he has previously avoided, or b) risk Ukraine acquiring weapons that could alter the strategic landscape by holding key Russian infrastructure at risk. His agreement to meet suggests the threat is being taken seriously.

Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

📣 New Podcast! "Trump's Gaza Ceasefire and The Rising Authoritarian Axis" on @Spreaker #authoritarian #axis #ceasefire #china #donald #gaza #geopolitics #hamas #intelligence #iran #israel #korea #missiles #north #russia #tomahawk #trump #ukraine #venezuela #war

spreaker.comTrump's Gaza Ceasefire and The Rising Authoritarian AxisThis week, a fragile ceasefire in Gaza offers a glimmer of hope after two years of devastating conflict. But as President Trump brokers peace in the Middle East, a new and powerful 'axis of power' between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea is changing the face of global conflict forever. Episode Highlights - The Gaza Ceasefire: We break down the secret diplomacy and high-stakes pressure from the Trump administration that led to the Israel-Hamas deal. We also look at the fragile reality on the ground, where a multinational force is overseeing a complex hostage exchange under incredibly tense conditions. - Escalation in Ukraine: The Trump administration is considering a dramatic policy shift by supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, a move that could allow Kyiv to strike deep into Russian territory. Meanwhile, Ukraine's own drone campaign is successfully crippling up to 38% of Russia's oil refining capacity, impacting its economy and war effort. - The New Axis: We explore the deepening military and economic alignment between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. Learn how China is supplying 80% of the critical electronics for Russia's drones , North Korea is providing 40% of its artillery shells , and Iran is exporting its drone technology across the globe. - Venezuela's Failed Offer: Discover the details of a secret, months-long negotiation where Venezuela's President Maduro offered the Trump administration a dominant stake in the country's oil and mineral wealth in a desperate bid for legitimacy.
Aucoin Analytics
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📣 New Podcast! "Our 4th Anniversary: The Voices That Explained the World" on @Spreaker

spreaker.comOur 4th Anniversary: The Voices That Explained the WorldTo celebrate four incredible years of This Week Explained, we're opening the vault and revisiting some of our most powerful conversations. In a world of constant flux, where understanding the forces shaping global events is more critical than ever, we've had the privilege of speaking with some of the sharpest minds in geopolitics and intelligence.In this special anniversary episode, join us for a masterclass in modern statecraft, espionage, and analysis. We're bringing you hand-picked clips from our conversations with former CIA officer Mike Baker, OSINT expert Ryan McBeth, strategic intelligence analyst Steve Lazarus, and real-time conflict tracker Alcon.Intel. From covert operations in the field to decoding satellite images from a desktop, this is a collection of insights you won't want to miss.
Aucoin Analytics
@aucoinanalytics.com

📣 New Podcast! "Ukraine's Counteroffensive, Gaza's Invasion, and a Nuclear Pact" on @Spreaker #article #crisis #estonia #gaza #geopolitics #hamas #hostage #intelligence #israel #korea #nato #north #nuclear #relations #russia #submarine #u_s_venezuela #ukraine #war

spreaker.comUkraine's Counteroffensive, Gaza's Invasion, and a Nuclear PactThis week, we unpack a world on the brink. From Ukraine's daring counteroffensive striking deep inside Russia to Israel's high-stakes ground invasion of Gaza, we analyze the critical decisions and their devastating consequences. Is Russia's escalating pressure on NATO a distraction, or part of a larger, more dangerous game? Episode Highlights - Ukraine's Two-Front Strategy: Ukrainian forces are not only reclaiming territory in the east but are also crippling Russia's war economy by targeting critical oil facilities deep inside the country. - Israel's Gaza Offensive: We break down why the Israeli government initiated a major ground offensive against the advice of its own security chiefs, sparking a humanitarian catastrophe and a chilling ultimatum from Hamas regarding the remaining hostages. - The New Nuclear Axis: Intelligence reports allege that Russia has supplied North Korea with a nuclear reactor and other key components for a submarine, a payment for munitions that could fundamentally alter the security landscape in Asia. - US vs. Venezuela: Tensions in the Caribbean are reaching a boiling point as the U.S. conducts lethal strikes against alleged "narcoterrorists," prompting a confrontational military response from Venezuela and bringing the two nations closer to direct conflict
Aucoin Analytics
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📣 New Podcast! "Lines Crossed Israel's Qatar Strike & Russia's NATO Test" on @Spreaker #affairs #doha #drone #east #geopolitics #global #hamas #intelligence #iran #israel #middle #nato #nepal #netanyahu #poland #qatar #russia #sanctions #ukraine #warfare

spreaker.comLines Crossed Israel's Qatar Strike & Russia's NATO TestThis week, geopolitical red lines are crossed, throwing decades of established rules into question. We break down Israel's unprecedented and failed strike inside Qatar that has shattered regional alliances, and we analyze the moment NATO forces fired on Russian drones over Poland for the first time.Episode Highlights - Israel's Doha Gamble: The anatomy of the failed assassination attempt in Doha , how the mission was pushed by Prime Minister Netanyahu against the advice of his own intelligence and military chiefs , and the diplomatic firestorm it created with the U.S. and a betrayed Gulf. - NATO's Red Line: For the first time, a NATO member has fired shots in an incident related to the war in Ukraine after Russian drones violated Polish airspace. We explore the competing narratives—deliberate provocation or accident—and NATO's new 'Eastern Sentry' mission. - The War on Four Fronts: An inside look at the escalating conflict in Ukraine, from Russia’s heaviest aerial bombardment of Kyiv and Ukraine’s asymmetric drone strikes on Russian oil terminals to the hidden war over foreign-made microchips found in Russian missiles. - Nepal's Digital Revolution: How a government's attempt to ban 26 social media platforms backfired , igniting a powder keg of youth-led anger over corruption that toppled the government in a matter of days.
Aucoin Analytics
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📣 New Podcast! "The Axis of Convenience: A New Global Order Emerges" on @Spreaker #cartels #china #dialogue #donald #geopolitics #hamas #india #intelligence #iran #jinping #modi #putin #quadrilateral #russia #sanctions #security #trump #u_s #vladimir #xi

spreaker.comThe Axis of Convenience: A New Global Order EmergesThis week, we unpack the formation of a new pragmatic alliance in Beijing designed to challenge the West. From Vladimir Putin's direct "red line" threat in Ukraine to a controversial U.S. military strike in the Caribbean, we ask: is the unipolar moment officially over? Episode Highlights - Putin's Ultimatum: Russia’s president issues a direct threat, stating any Western troops in Ukraine, including peacekeepers, will be considered "legitimate targets," as allies debate the systemic financial risks of seizing frozen Russian assets. - Gaza's Stalemate: A deep dive into the stalled hostage negotiations, where Hamas seeks survival and Israel seeks its opponent's elimination, leading to a growing divide between Israel's political leadership and its military command. - The Axis of Convenience: Inside China's massive Victory Day parade, where the presence of Russia, North Korea, India, and Iran signals the rise of a pragmatic bloc built to counter Western influence. - A World Rebalancing: We explore how punitive U.S. tariffs are pushing India toward a tactical alliance with China and analyze the legality of the White House's decision to use lethal military force against a cartel vessel in international waters.
Aucoin Analytics
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Russia has launched its largest air attack of the war on Ukraine overnight, striking central Kyiv and hitting the main government building for the first time. President Zelenskiy has issued a direct appeal to allies for stronger, more comprehensive air defense systems to protect Ukrainian cities.