Institute for the Study of War

SPECIAL REPORT: Ukrainian forces have defeated the 2026 Russian campaign to seize Donetsk Oblast. 🧵(1/6) Read more: isw.pub/UkraineDisru...

13h

NEW: Senior officials from the Mecca Pact’s three signatories met with senior Iranian officials in Tehran on October 26 to discuss a new US-Iran deal in concert with ongoing Pakistani and Qatari efforts. Read more: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate102626

15h

NEW: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his willingness for a complete or partial ceasefire, including moratoriums on strikes against energy infrastructure or the Black Sea, but the Kremlin continues to reject a ceasefire. Read more: https://isw.pub/UkrWar102626

NEW: Ukrainian forces are making slow but tactically significant gains in the Oleksandrivka direction that may later threaten Russian logistics and efforts in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions over the long term. Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar102526

4/ Ukrainian forces conducted a series of long-range strikes against industrial facilities in Russia. Russian forces conducted several high-casualty strikes on October 24 and 25, including in western Ukraine.

5/ Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar102526

2/ Ukraine had a slightly lower but still relatively high interception rate of Russian jet-powered drones during the Starshield restrictions in mid-October 2026, but will need innovative jet-powered interceptors to work to sustain and improve these interception rates over the long term.

3/ Russian forces recently advanced in the Novopavlivka direction.

NEW: The Houthis have fired at least 12 missiles and two drones targeting Saudi Arabia since October 24 as part of the Houthi strike campaign, which aims to impose economic and political costs on Saudi Arabia. Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

2/ Yemeni government-aligned forces continue to engage Houthi forces south of Taiz City in an effort to break the Houthi encirclement of the city and central Taiz Governorate.

3/ Iran Update, October 25, 2026: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

NEW: Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned on October 23 that US intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is in the "advanced stages" of planning attacks against US targets in the region. + 3 maps 🧵(1/4) Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

3/ The Houthis claimed that they attacked three Saudi airports, pumping stations on the East-West Pipeline, and oil facilities at major Saudi Red Sea ports.

isw.pubIran Update, October 24, 2026DNI Jay Clayton warned on Oct 23 that Iran is in the "advanced stages" of planning attacks against US targets in the region.

4/ Iran Update, October 24, 2026:

2/ Houthi supporters and military officers have reportedly expressed dissatisfaction with the group’s military progress near Taiz City and are urging Houthi leadership to conduct a large-scale ground assault to capture the city.

NEW: Ukrainian officials are confirming the resumption of unrestricted access to SpaceX’s low-earth orbit satellite communication technology (Starlink and Starshield) without disruptions in Ukraine on October 24. 🧵(1/5) Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar1024206

4/ Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Dobropillya.

5/ Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian military, energy, and industrial infrastructure on the night of October 23 to 24. Russian forces launched 126 drones against Ukraine overnight. Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar1024206

2/ Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign against energy infrastructure in Russia and occupied Ukraine overnight on October 23 to 24 caused power outages across occupied Ukrainian oblasts including occupied Crimea.

3/ Ukraine agreed to observe a limited ceasefire in Russian-occupied Oleshky, Kherson Oblast beginning on October 27, indicating a convergence between Russia and Ukraine on the ceasefire start date, but the geographical extent and other terms of the ceasefire remain unclear.

NEW: Ukrainian officials are widely reporting continued in-motion speed restrictions on SpaceX’s low-earth orbit satellite communication technology (Starlink and Starshield) on October 23, but the situation remains unclear.🧵(1/7) Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar102326

6/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced west of Kostyantynivka. Russian forces launched 176 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukraine continued its long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets overnight on October 22 to 23 and on October 23.

7/ Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 23, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar102326

4/ The Kremlin appears to be increasingly adopting a more cautious monetary policy amid continued inflationary pressures, which may pose risks to wage growth and Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB).

5/ A likely Russian drone struck a cargo ship off the coast of Romania, and drone debris fell in Moldova on October 23. Ukraine and Russia conducted civilian prisoner and prisoner of war (POW) exchanges on October 23.

2/ Russia and Ukraine have reportedly agreed to a limited ceasefire in Russian-occupied Oleshky, Kherson Oblast.

3/ Russian President Vladimir Putin articulated his long-standing commitment to wider territorial aims in Ukraine far beyond Donetsk Oblast by invoking mythologized and false Russian “historical claims”.

NEW: Hezbollah is leveraging several political and informational lines of effort to deter the Lebanese government from prosecuting the group for a recent smuggling operation, which Hezbollah likely fears could establish a precedent for legal action against its illicit activities. (1/6)

5/ Saudi Arabia is expanding the scope of its air campaign in Yemen by interdicting Houthi smuggling cargo that could sustain Houthi military activities against the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia.

isw.pubIran Update, October 23, 2026Hezbollah is leveraging political and informational lines of effort to deter the Lebanese government from prosecuting the group.

6/ Iran Update, October 23, 2026:

3/ Iraq-based Axis of Resistance actors have very likely launched at least four drones targeting Saudi Arabia within the past 20 days.

4/ Attacks on Saudi Arabia and other regional countries from Iraq by any Iranian partner or proxy support Iranian objectives to compel the United States to end the war in terms favorable to Iran by imposing increasing costs on US partners and allies in the region.

isw.pubIran Update, October 23, 2026Hezbollah is leveraging political and informational lines of effort to deter the Lebanese government from prosecuting the group.

Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate10... Other Key Takeaways: 2/ Hezbollah’s lines of effort are indicative of the challenges that face the government as it attempts to confront Hezbollah, but do not guarantee that Hezbollah will succeed in breaking the government’s will to disarm the group.

NEW: Taiwanese national security and policy officials are reporting increased Chinese influence operations that utilize AI-generated content and cyberattacks. (1/5) Read the full report: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...

4/ PRC state media highlighted the use of these vessels in operations in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. This unusual exercise formation and training activity was likely intended to intimidate the Philippines into reducing or stopping its maritime activities near disputed features.

isw.pubChina & Taiwan Update, October 23, 2026Taiwanese national security and policy officials are pointing out expanded PRC influence operations ahead of Taiwan’s local elections.

5/ China & Taiwan Update, October 23, 2026:

2/ Other Key Takeaways: These influence operations are being used to increase societal polarization, erode public trust in the Taiwanese government, and reduce voter turnout, and will likely continue to increase in the lead-up to Taiwan’s November 28 local elections.

3/ The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) conducted live-fire combat training drills using four Type 071 Landing Platform Deck ships designed to support amphibious landing operations on October 14.

youtu.beDefining the Russian Military Threat Against Europe | ISW Briefing RoomYouTube video by Institute for the Study of War

VIDEO: The Kremlin is conducting an escalating series of kinetic campaigns against Europe. ISW's Mason Clark explains Russia's activity in Europe and why defining it as "hybrid attacks" and "provocations" might undermine an effective response. Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/6s5L-sbcPvc

SPECIAL REPORT: Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying once again to breathe life into the myth of inevitable Russian military victory in order to persuade the United States and other supporters of Ukraine to compel Kyiv to surrender. Read more: https://isw.pub/MythofRussianVictoryBSK

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NEW: The Kremlin's seeming interest in negotiations aims not to end the war in Ukraine but rather to secure economic concessions from the United States such that Russia can continue funding its war. 🧵(1/8) Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar102226

7/Ukrainian forces recently advanced south of Vovchansk and in southern Kostyantynivka.

8/ Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets on October 21 and overnight on October 21 to 22. Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar102226

5/ Russian forces conducted a massive missile and drone strike against Ukraine overnight on October 21 to 22 following the October 21 meeting between Witkoff and Putin- a continuation of Russia’s pattern of launching large strike packages in the days before and after major peace talks.

6/ Russian forces struck Kyiv City with cluster munitions to purposely harm the civilian population, likely as part of wider Russian efforts to distract from Ukraine’s recent battlefield successes and ultimately force Ukraine into capitulation by making daily life untenable.

3/ Russian forces are not winning on the battlefield, however, particularly as Ukrainian forces have stymied the planned Russian offensive to seize Donetsk Oblast.

4/ The Kremlin is likely actively seeking economic cooperation with the United States as Russia faces significant financial strain.