andyguess

andyguess

@andyguess.com

Bun dad who studies 🐰🕳️.

3.1K followers630 following19 posts

JQD:DM is announcing a Special Workflow Issue that will incorporate AI into the paper production and review process in a way that is designed to maintain the primacy of human judgment. Deadline for Letters of Inquiry is Oct. 25. Join us! journalqd.org/special-work...

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Our research group under the supervision of Kevin Munger is starting a presentation series at EUI called PING (Politics and the INternet Group). We’re accepting applications for the fall term. Come present and hang out in Florence! I will link the website and call in the comments. Pls share widely

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Did podcasts really swing young men to Trump in 2024? We assembled the data to find out, and we are presenting it at APSA this Saturday, Sept 5, 2 to 3:30pm. Long awaited working paper link also attached below! If you have seen this before, we have new data, come check it out.

Glad to finally be able to post about this long-in-the-works paper, led by the amazing @crobertson500.bsky.social and @small-schulz.bsky.social! "Everyone knows" that social media gives a distorted view of public opinion (...right?). 1/8

Claire E. Robertson, PhD@crobertson500.bsky.social

Is social media truly making us more politically polarized, or does it simply over-represent our most extreme opinions? In our new preprint, @small-schulz.bsky.social and I present *punishing evidence* that social media systematically overrepresents users’ most extreme political opinions. 1/n

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There's an ongoing debate about the extent to which social media *causes* polarization. Regardless of where you fall on that, we hope our evidence convinces you of the magnitude of polarized self-selection on social media -- as well as its generality (across countries, platforms, algorithms). 7/8

Glad to finally be able to post about this long-in-the-works paper, led by the amazing @crobertson500.bsky.social and @small-schulz.bsky.social! "Everyone knows" that social media gives a distorted view of public opinion (...right?). 1/8

Claire E. Robertson, PhD@crobertson500.bsky.social

Is social media truly making us more politically polarized, or does it simply over-represent our most extreme opinions? In our new preprint, @small-schulz.bsky.social and I present *punishing evidence* that social media systematically overrepresents users’ most extreme political opinions. 1/n

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Then when we ask a different sample of people about these previously written opinions, they perceive the ones that were more likely to be "posted" to be more off-putting and hostile. 5/8

We then run surveys in 40 countries to confirm that the general pattern of association between ideological extremity and political posting holds across cultures and political systems. 6/8

Glad to finally be able to post about this long-in-the-works paper, led by the amazing @crobertson500.bsky.social and @small-schulz.bsky.social! "Everyone knows" that social media gives a distorted view of public opinion (...right?). 1/8

Claire E. Robertson, PhD@crobertson500.bsky.social

Is social media truly making us more politically polarized, or does it simply over-represent our most extreme opinions? In our new preprint, @small-schulz.bsky.social and I present *punishing evidence* that social media systematically overrepresents users’ most extreme political opinions. 1/n

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When we look at years of social media data linked to surveys, we find a consistent pattern across the most salient issues: users selectively post most frequently about issues on which they hold the most left- and right-aligned positions. 3/8

Consistent with this, in experiments, we find that when we ask one set of people to write hypothetical opinions on random issues, they are more likely to say they'd post the more extreme position. 4/8

Glad to finally be able to post about this long-in-the-works paper, led by the amazing @crobertson500.bsky.social and @small-schulz.bsky.social! "Everyone knows" that social media gives a distorted view of public opinion (...right?). 1/8

Claire E. Robertson, PhD@crobertson500.bsky.social

Is social media truly making us more politically polarized, or does it simply over-represent our most extreme opinions? In our new preprint, @small-schulz.bsky.social and I present *punishing evidence* that social media systematically overrepresents users’ most extreme political opinions. 1/n

We trace the process of self-selection in *who* posts to social media and *which* of their opinions users choose to post about. 2/8

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Read @pettertornberg.com's fascinating paper on changes in social media use patterns in JQD:DM! Link and thread below:

Petter Törnberg@pettertornberg.com

Is social media dying? How much did Twitter change as it became X? Which party now dominates the conversation? Using nationally representative ANES data from 2020 & 2024, I map how the U.S. social media landscape has changed Here are the key take-aways 🧵 Full paper out now in in JQD:DM!

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Thrilled to publish my latest article BAN COOKIE BANNERS: A CASE STUDY IN TECH REGULATION with the Harv. J. of Law & Tech! A cri de cœur to end this worse-than-useless regulatory compliance regime and let something that actually protects users take its place. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... 1/

papers.ssrn.comBan Cookie Banners: A Case Study in Tech RegulationFew experiences on the modern internet are as universally reviled as the cookie banner. They clutter websites with pop-ups, interrupt user flow, make informatio

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The real story is that foreign govts try to "interfere" all the time. In 2020 and 2024 we had mechanisms to catch them, call them out, & mitigate damage. Now, those mechanims are gone & the Trump admin would prefer to exploit "foreign interference" to justify a federal take-over of elections.

Kate Starbird@katestarbird.bsky.social

OFFS. When Iran tried to interefere in 2020, researchers caught them and called them out. Then the Benz-Weiss-Taibbi-Musk-Jordan-Trump axis labeled those researchers "censors" ... and set about defunding them and dismantling their organizations.

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Last week the story was that TikTok censored anti-Trump/ICE/Pretti videos after the U.S. ownership change. We investigated with a large set of US TikTok data and found some interesting results, short thread...

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Essential research, a great place to work, extremely cool colleagues - if I had any relevant technical skills (and did not already work next door) I'd apply.

andyguess@andyguess.com

The Center for Information Technology Policy at Princeton invites applications for a Postdoctoral Fellow to work with an interdisciplinary team (me, @bstewart.bsky.social, and @manoelhortaribeiro.bsky.social). Link: puwebp.princeton.edu/AcadHire/app... Please apply by THIS SUNDAY, Dec. 14!

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📣 Yale workshop, Oct 16-17! 📣 How could/should content ranking work? What's new in content moderation? How can platforms promote civility? Hosted by Yale's Institute for Foundations of Data Science (FDS). Great speakers! Submit posters by 9/22! Spread the word! yalefds.swoogo.com/socialalgori...

yalefds.swoogo.comNew Directions in Social Algorithms Research on October 16-17, 2025 at Yale UniversityAs social media algorithms increasingly mediate social experiences, there has been a rapid increase in research on the effects of how these algorithms are configured, alternatives to engagement-centri...

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Deeply reported story by @stephaniemlee.bsky.social, on the impact of grant terminations — even for those who have managed to get their awards reinstated “I do not trust 100 percent,” one researcher said, “that there won’t be another termination.”

Stephanie M. Lee@stephaniemlee.bsky.social

NEW: Their NIH grants are back, but nothing is back to normal. In June, a judge ordered the restoration of 900+ terminated grants. So how's that going? Scientists say they're happy, but also it's been a bumpy road—and they're afraid their funds will get cut again. www.chronicle.com/article/thei...

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Anyway, I know it's not news that Trump is hypocritical, but here's my story reminding people that MAGA world insisted that the Biden admin sending impolite notes to Facebook was the greatest threat to free speech, but are completely silent on Trump calling up Murdoch and demanding he kill a story

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Will Meet The Press ask random other white politicians to condemn Trump's antisemitic language this weekend? Or does that only apply to Mamdani?

Matt Novak@paleofuture.bsky.social

"No death tax, no estate tax, no going to the banks and borrowing from, in some cases, a fine banker. And in some cases, shylocks and bad people."

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It’s weird how the white conservative guys at the NYT get to say whatever they want but anyone else has to watch what they say because it’s “too political”

Razzball@razzball.bsky.social

So, Jamelle Bouie criticizes an attempted-gotcha on Mamdani at NYT, then NYT asks him to remove any criticism from social, but the author of the attempted-gotcha works with impunity? Do I have that right?

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A nice complement to this paper by @aecoppock.bsky.social and @andyguess.com alexandercoppock.com/guess_coppoc..., which found no evidence of backlash from one-sided counter-attitudinal information

David Rand@dgrand.bsky.social

Great new paper by Stagnaro & Amsalem in NatComm: Detailed fact-based informational module about gun control leads to persistent reductions in polarization (attitudes move towards midpoint). Seeing the evidence cited by other side makes opinions more moderate www.nature.com/articles/s41...

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Not surprising that an administration that rose to power on the spread of bullshit and propaganda is terminating the funding of researchers studying these phenomena. We are just receiving word about funding cancellations re: existing grants to members of our team and our colleagues.

Sean Carroll@seanmcarroll.bsky.social

The National Science Foundation (NSF) is terminating a bunch of research funding. Much of this is in line with the goal of making sure nothing gets in the way of systemic racism and sexism, but they also explicitly target research on "misinformation/disinformation." www.nsf.gov/updates-on-p...

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We hang together or we hang separately. Could not be clearer what is happening and how universities must respond.

Jason "Red5" Lyall@jaylyall.bsky.social

Trump Officials Freeze $1 Billion for Cornell and $790 Million for Northwestern The funding pause amid civil rights "investigations" into both universities sharply escalates the Trump administration’s campaign against elite colleges.

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Every single university president should be asked, in public, why they are not speaking out this way to support all the students currently detained without due process, and all those terrified that they will be next, on every campus in this country. Yes, including Columbia's acting president.

Joshua J. Friedman@joshuajfriedman.com

NEW: Tufts files a declaration in support of Rümeysa Öztürk: "The University has no information to support the allegations that she was engaged in activities at Tufts that warrant her arrest and detention." www.tufts.edu/president/sp...

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Former Columbia president Lee Bollinger, interviewed by the Chronicle earlier this month, said universities should think in centuries and consider what they might look back on in shame; apparently Columbia’s current leadership considered the question and decided they’re content submitting to a king.

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Reminder that 'savvy' political fact checkers spent the entire campaign telling voters that Trump was not going to do the things he obviously was going to do.

Social Security Works@socialsecurityworks.org

BREAKING: Trump's billionaire Commerce Secretary says that seniors won't care if they don't get their Social Security checks — and that anyone who does complain is a fraudster.

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I'm sure this is the last time they'll ever threaten Columbia's funding. So rest easy. It's not like Donald Trump to keep on threatening the same person or entity over and over and over and over and over and over and over again. I don't think the sets any precedent. 🙄

southpaw@nycsouthpaw.bsky.social

This is just the worst week. www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...

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I really wish Americans would stop treating the continued existence of Canada as the sort of thing they can do amusing thought experiments about.

Peter Baker@peterbakernyt.bsky.social

Canada as the 51st state? Trump thinks it would be a boon to his legacy. But it would also be a boon to Democrats, who would gain a lot more voters. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/17/u...

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It is vitally important that journalists speak to comparativists who study authoritarian takeovers, like @kimlanelaw.bsky.social, and not just to people whose expertise is in US domestic law and politics.

Dahlia Lithwick@dahlialithwick.bsky.social

Please listen to @kimlanelaw.bsky.social explain that while the eank insanity of the past 12 days is new to America, it's familiar in Hungary (and Poland and Turkey) down to every particular. When lawyers are more dangerous than tanks in the street... podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

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Excited to share my new #JEPS paper with @xiaoxiaoshen.bsky.social introducing ReChat, a research tool for live-text interaction studies! Makes it easy to embed live chats in surveys, opening new possibilities for research on social interaction. Check it out! 🧵👇 #AcademicSky #PoliSciSky #PoliSky

#OpenAccess from @jepsjournal.bsky.social - Introducing ReChat: A Lab-in-the-Cloud for Text Discussions - cup.org/4gFUahQ - @xiaoxiaoshen.bsky.social & @small-schulz.bsky.social #FirstView #JEPS

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FIRE is currently going to bat for Wax because, according to them, there’s no evidence that she ever engaged in actual discriminatory conduct. meanwhile i took one semester of civil procedure with her and remember like 5-6 specific racist incidents directed at students.

Adam Bonin@adambonin.bsky.social

The University of Pennsylvania has finalized its discipline against law prof Amy Wax: suspended from teaching (at half-pay + benefits) for a year, loss of named chair and summer pay, public reprimand, must make clear she's not speaking for univ or law school. Had already lost ability to teach 1Ls.

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We should attack transphobia head-on simply because it is a disgusting ideology, but if that's not enough for you, it's a system of control that stems from a patriarchal assumption about what a woman "should" be whose natural end is rigid gender roles upheld by state violence. Which seems bad!

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