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Technically, BlueSky / atproto feels well positioned, where benefit from the freedom of control of your online systems, meets not needing to host yourself.

100%! And I have *so* much hope here. It's daunting to wade into serving. But so many folks do already! And its so early in the timeline, so little such scrappy attempts to operationalize computing aimed at anything other than industry! The situation will improve! bsky.app/profile/jaun...

This is pretty much where I’ve ended up in looking to @getdweb.net principles rather than “open source” as an organizing principle bmannconsulting.com/notes/dweb/ “Technology for Human Agency” and “Distributed Benefits” I can get behind without even getting into what license someone picks.

I think JS/TS frameworks went off in the wrong direction, making web development complex and such a costly investment that it pushed the needle towards funding and paying for the work. I've been looking at #NueJS lately for a full rethink of this: puts things in perspective. nuejs.org/docs/why-nue

Obama Timeline 2: The Michellening

Missing from this thread (with a lot of comments about ZIRP) is increasing consolidation of control by platform vendors. Without antitrust in the US having teeth, and especially following the transition to phones and "trusted" devices, the kind of inversion of power that OSS can create dwindles.

More software that - technically isn't FLOSS, due to a freemium license - is FLOSS but isn't corporate-friendly due to branding (like the Anubis WAF), but which can be white-labeled for a price.

corporate sponsorship trends are slightly hopeful, but i worry about some projects getting locked into relationships that are quietly anticompetitive in nature my hope is that the mutual aid sponsorship model of the 2020s matures into large scale community-driven funding w/ improved infra

OSS may continue to serve as a shibboleth for getting tech jobs, especially early career as new devs need to show value greater than perceived value of LLMs in their role to management.

I hope that collective models, like Igalia, can thrive next. Consultancies that have expertise in certain projects, are funded by companies that rely on them, and get paid for special efforts on specific work. It should be simpler than a company trying to maintain an OSS project on its own.

And AGPL. A barbell.

I'd guess a universe of small niche creative projects come next, where the goal is not scale but uniqueness the pendulum must swing back, and we have better tools than ever to enable it

Part of this is that doing open source *for the money* lost its taboo. It's wider than just OSS; sponsored content went from "what a sellout" to "get that bag" along the same time. I'm not sure of the cause <-> effect directionality here. My guess is it's more like an intertwined helix.

IMO "the only problems left to solve" are ones that require new approaches and those don't require a lot of resource to establish.

For better or worse, the complements of the web were successfully commodified. Linux won the datacenter, then open browser engines/ecosystems won the desktop, and now the process is playing out in AI (especially Chinese labs). Once it happens, the marginal opportunity in an N+1 project is low.

www.patreon.com/posts/dawn-o...

Anarchy and antifa