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Trump's 'philosophy' is that he has to be the winner, and you can't have a winner without having a loser. Who is a bigger winner than the man who can walk away from a pile of bodies? The answer, of course, is the guy who piled up those bodies in the first place. So I take nukes as very plausible.

🤷🏻‍♂️

I'm worried! But I'm not alarmed and not trying to alarm folks. It's hard to write about this work without tripping into it, but this moment is important and the more people who can know a bit more about it the better, is my motivation here.

Maybe if we threw them a victory parade?…

The only off-ramp is the Senate. That’s dismal.

Nuclear options and invoking God is always a concern.

I don't have anything constructive to add to this, but I would like to thank you for this and other analyses you have publicly done. I don't feel better, but I do feel like I know more and can understand more, and I'm grateful for that.

Another thing to keep in mind is our shrinking stockpiles of smart weapons. What happens when we’re out of JASSMs?

Indeed

Why are you not trying to alarm folks? Fine to urge calm so people will act in light of facts intelligently but quite another to not state dire threat clearly: Trump is insane, Hegseth is insane and we already know these weapons are not precise or reliable. There is actual danger. Be alarmed.

Make that a 6

Also like the then expectation that such a severe move would necessarily come with other strategic goals and visible changes leading to them and well... No it's been a few weeks and we're just not really doing that

5/10 seems correct. They are clearly not bound by any sense of restraint or decency, and have purged enough generals to get to the ones who will go along. Will the world be forever changed...

I appreciate your thoughtful and calm assessment. Thank you for taking the time to write it for a lay audience.

correction: existential threat (good lord)

this is what frames his motivation. on the other hand he's a coward and easily bribed with money (though the dimensions have changed immensely since he retook office) - which only adds to he unpredictability.

Failure, to reach the objectives is a none starter at least politically. The first cracks are showing with demonstrations in Tel Aviv and there is no let up in the amount of missiles, rockets & drones . So I don't think it will be tomorrow but if tomorrow is unseccussful it will be more likely.

They also left Tokyo intact so they would have had someone to negotiate with. Israel made sure that wouldn't happen this time.

Here's my fear. He is absolutely determined to leave his name on the historical record. Ballroom, Kennedy center, bullshit arch, anything he can put his name on. He absolutely does not fear or care about any repercussions of nuclear weapon use. He does know it'll mean he's remembered.

...and of course, such a move satisfies the cruelty bravado instincts which have been celebrated over the last 16 months. This is the crux, since there's no military need for these weapons here. But if the above about the choice being between humiliation and escalation is right... it's an opening.

Anything is possible with these people

I don’t want to entertain this scenario either, but also consider— if Trump does this to Iran, it immediately gives Putin the green light to do the same to Ukraine.