This week on UCLA Housing Voice we talked to David Schleicher about the property tax revolt sweeping conservative states across the US, its likely consequences (good and bad), and its similarities and differences from the liberal-state tax revolts of the 70s and 80s. lewis.ucla.edu/2026/10/28/1...
Shane Phillips
Shane Phillips
@shanedphillips.bsky.social
Housing guy. Researcher at UCLA Lewis Center, host of UCLA Housing Voice Podcast, author of The Affordable City, resident of Los Angeles.
5.8K followers331 following993 posts
Shane Phillips reposted
A fun fact about elevators: it’s always 2% (or 0%) of total hard costs. Developers scale the number of elevators they buy to meet this number. Developing a six-unit apartment building? In Switzerland the elevator is like $50k so it fits within the 2% and they include it. In the US it’s $175,000…
"Percent of income spent on housing" continues to be a sort of silly metric. 1.) It's almost always ~33% 2.) When it's not ~33% it's generally because of a subset of the population is not working (ie, the Florida numbers are because there are retirees without "income")
Shane Phillips reposted
Replying to @stevelafleur.bsky.social
There is also the bonus that, while those wanting to support families will endlessly champion owned houses, when you look at family sized units, rentals of every possible building size have way more kids than houses, & are vastly cheaper & more efficient. bsky.app/profile/shan...
Nationally, single-family houses have a lot more kids (per 100 units) than multifamily, and rentals have a lot more than owner-occupied homes. But the numbers look very different when you control for householder age and bedroom count, and by location: domainexpansion.substack.com/p/what-kinds...
Shane Phillips reposted
the routine, pay for play pardons are all by themselves one of the worst corruption scandals in american history!
My brain cannot process this level of corruption. She was being paid $50 million to engineer a pardon from Trump *while working at the Justice Department* as a "Special Government Employee." And it worked. He got the pardon, and she got the money. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/20/u...
Shane Phillips reposted
Replying to @eean.dev
A very important detail that gets missed here is that these folks are NOT engineers. They are building department plan examiners, inspectors, firefighters, etc. They do enforcement and implementation, not system-level analysis. It’s kind of like if the police could write the criminal laws.
Shane Phillips reposted
Replying to @moinmybackyard.bsky.social
One last thought. There is something broken about the way that a trade association owns the codes and it lobbies and PRs aggressively as I am documenting. The public interest in the codes is smoothied up with the private interests of this particular group. Very very uncomfortable.
In addition to Mo's commentary here, there's also a reality we need to grapple with that policies that increase up front (i.e., construction) costs can stop housing production even if they lower lifecycle costs. Especially if the building owners can't capture all the operational savings.
2. "Focus on long term lifecycle costs" [This is classic misdirection. This points to the energy code instead of the building code. But we can also have lower construction costs, leading to greater housing supply, in addition to energy-efficiency.]
Great thread, definitely worth reading in full.
I am at the ICC conference in Nashville! Unlike last year's conference, affordability was a constant topic. In just half a day, it came up in three separate contexts (two unforced). Sadly, affordability was only seen as a trojan horse for legislative "encroachment" and commercial interests.
Shane Phillips reposted
Nationally, single-family houses have a lot more kids (per 100 units) than multifamily, and rentals have a lot more than owner-occupied homes. But the numbers look very different when you control for householder age and bedroom count, and by location: domainexpansion.substack.com/p/what-kinds...
Shane Phillips reposted
Single Family Rentals (SFRs) are a key tool for families w/ children to get access to n-hoods w/ high performing schools. Important because poorer children who move to, & stay in, n-hoods w/ strong schools make significant academic gains (as shown by research from IZ & voucher mobility programs).
Single-family rentals get a bad rap, but they also provide distinct benefits. The same home often rents for a lot less than it would cost to buy it, so rentals can serve less people. In our latest episode, we talk about how that matters for access to good schools: lewis.ucla.edu/2026/10/14/1...
Shane Phillips reposted
This is very true and way too widely ignored, and yet another reason why treating owner occupied homes as more desirable than renter occupied ones, even when well intentioned, can do a lot of harm.
Single-family rentals get a bad rap, but they also provide distinct benefits. The same home often rents for a lot less than it would cost to buy it, so rentals can serve less people. In our latest episode, we talk about how that matters for access to good schools: lewis.ucla.edu/2026/10/14/1...
Nationally, single-family houses have a lot more kids (per 100 units) than multifamily, and rentals have a lot more than owner-occupied homes. But the numbers look very different when you control for householder age and bedroom count, and by location: domainexpansion.substack.com/p/what-kinds...
Shane Phillips reposted
A housing podcast episode for you education folks! Or those who want to know more the relationship between rental housing and school preferences
Single-family rentals get a bad rap, but they also provide distinct benefits. The same home often rents for a lot less than it would cost to buy it, so rentals can serve less people. In our latest episode, we talk about how that matters for access to good schools: lewis.ucla.edu/2026/10/14/1...
Single-family rentals get a bad rap, but they also provide distinct benefits. The same home often rents for a lot less than it would cost to buy it, so rentals can serve less people. In our latest episode, we talk about how that matters for access to good schools: lewis.ucla.edu/2026/10/14/1...
Our guest Tom Mayock (with coauthor Kelly Vosters) found that disadvantaged kids were more likely to end up at high quality schools when those schools had catchment areas with more single-family rentals. lewis.ucla.edu/2026/10/14/1...
In a complementary paper, they also find that students who end up at these higher-quality schools end up with improved educational outcomes in later years. doi.org/10.1016/j.jh...
Shane Phillips reposted
Shane Phillips reposted
Shane Phillips reposted
Shane Phillips reposted
Given how much Los Angeles' terrible governance on housing and homeless affects the rest of the state, it's no exaggeration to call the LA Mayor's race the most important election in California this cycle.
LA mayoral candidate Nithya Raman says she'd add a "shot clock" to housing permits in her first 100 days. It sets a deadline for the city to act on a permit. Long waits raise interest and land costs for builders while they wait. kfiam640.iheart.com/content/2026...
Shane Phillips reposted
In this week's UCLA Housing Voice reading list, we cover homeownership and risky behavior, measuring rental affordability, state policies to encourage manufactured housing, AI in permit reviews, vacancy chains, and more. Check it out (and subscribe!): uclahousingvoice.substack.com/p/ucla-housi...
In this week's UCLA Housing Voice reading list, we cover homeownership and risky behavior, measuring rental affordability, state policies to encourage manufactured housing, AI in permit reviews, vacancy chains, and more. Check it out (and subscribe!): uclahousingvoice.substack.com/p/ucla-housi...
Shane Phillips reposted
Shane Phillips reposted
Would sure be nice to see more candidates explicitly running against this. Elon spending money for your opponent is a GIFT, Democrats. Voters hate this shit. They hate this guy specifically. Break out the big bats and go after it!
Biggest filing of the cycle so far, adding $4,228,309.49 in the last 48. With that Elon is over $30m, including: -$11,205,796.82 vs @jamestalarico.bsky.social -$5,012,118.80 vs @sherrodbrownoh.bsky.social -$4,499,737.73 vs. @abdulelsayed.bsky.social -$1,055,949.93 vs @troyjackson207.bsky.social
Another entry for the "impact fee nexus studies are bullshit" file! Student enrollment at LA Unified has fallen for 24 years straight, ~48%. And yet! We have an impact fee because: "As new development occurs, additional school facilities will be needed to house the growth in the student population."
Link to the 2026 impact fee justification study and other LAUSD impact fee-related publications: impactfee.lausd.org/apps/pages/i...
Another entry for the "impact fee nexus studies are bullshit" file! Student enrollment at LA Unified has fallen for 24 years straight, ~48%. And yet! We have an impact fee because: "As new development occurs, additional school facilities will be needed to house the growth in the student population."
New episode! We talked to Brian Blackwell at California Policy Lab about his research on the effectiveness rapid rehousing (RRH), a program that provides short-term rental assistance to help people experiencing homelessness find market-rate housing: lewis.ucla.edu/2026/09/30/1...
If you're looking for a primer on programs for reducing homelessness, the challenges with measuring success, and what we know about the effectiveness of different kinds of interventions, this is a great place to start: lewis.ucla.edu/2026/09/30/1...
New episode! We talked to Brian Blackwell at California Policy Lab about his research on the effectiveness rapid rehousing (RRH), a program that provides short-term rental assistance to help people experiencing homelessness find market-rate housing: lewis.ucla.edu/2026/09/30/1...
New episode! We talked to Brian Blackwell at California Policy Lab about his research on the effectiveness rapid rehousing (RRH), a program that provides short-term rental assistance to help people experiencing homelessness find market-rate housing: lewis.ucla.edu/2026/09/30/1...
Shane Phillips reposted
Left-NIMBYs love to pit welfare state expansion against land use reform, but the latter can 1) can achieve significant poverty reductions 2) without means testing or administrative burdens, and 3) at a net gain for the public budget, which can then be used to expand the welfare state.
Thanks, Ned. The extent of the child poverty reduction from allowing enough housing to push down real rents 20% approaches the 2021 temporary child tax credit expansion.
Shane Phillips reposted
The GOP cut funding to the IRS because *audits work* and they fundamentally don't believe rich people should have to play by the rules.
One day I hope to convince conservatives that we should enforce the rule of law, reduce the deficit, and not carelessly tear down the institutions prior generations built, but today is not that day.
Shane Phillips reposted
NEW from me: Over the last 4 years, America has lost more than 200k jobs in creative fields like publishing, film, TV, or graphic design. It's the worst stretch for arts jobs outside of recessions. How much is AI to blame? And can the arts' business model survive?🧵 www.apricitas.io/p/ai-and-the...
Shane Phillips reposted
Replying to @andersem.bsky.social
There are other things, like mandatory fire curtains that lack demonstrated safety benefits but add $7k/floor. The Coalition for Elevator Reform, launched this month by accessibility-forward housing developer The Kelsey, has model legislation. elevatorreform.org
Shane Phillips reposted
I have a confession to make. The townhomes I & others spent most of a decade trying to legalize are popping up all over Oregon & elsewhere...and I love that...but they're a problem in one big way. (get ready for a twisty thread about the housing report @sightline.org just published)
So many problems, in so many states, are downstream of our unwillingness to tax real estate at its market value, and more generally of our unwillingness to acknowledge that housing wealth is, in fact, wealth.
Seattle constantly adding new revenue––when the *entire state* needs an overhaul, especially to property tax––is bad for Seattle. It makes the city and arguably the state less economically competitive. Just abolish the 1% cap on levy increases and new local revenue isn’t necessary.
Shane Phillips reposted
My new market rate apartment is affordable to households making ~80% AMI. It was built 5 years ago. I need every skeptic of “filtering” to spend five minutes looking at rentals on Zillow for Sacramento. Actually, let’s do it together: www.zillow.com/sacramento-c...
Strange article from Strong Towns on "filtering". Fundamentally, they do not believe in indirect spillover effects, where adding high-end supply can reduce low-end rents. Instead, we have to intentionally and directly target the low-end. 1/
Shane Phillips reposted
On this week's reading list we cover the supply and affordability impacts of suburban expansion, tight mortgage lending standards, tools for estimating housing development feasibility, growing the urban tree canopy, and more. uclahousingvoice.substack.com/p/ucla-housi...