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This is a model of sea-level height at Brest, France since 1880, cross-validated in the interval shown. It uses Laplace's tidal equations (LTE) and applies long-period tidal forcing factors over the training interval. Despite being obvious, no one has ever tried doing this in the research lit.

Henri Drake trades monetary clicks for doing productive research.

Metrology Matters At some point we will realize that the decision to track climate data at monthly intervals was short-sighted.... https://geoenergymath.com/2026/10/15/metrology-matters/

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AMO and PDO With the correct intermediate manifold, those of AMO and PDO are nearly indistinguishable. The ocean response is subtle -- AMO has the basin-wide slow response, whereas PDO doesn't, and both have a similar LTE modulation as shown in… https://geoenergymath.com/2026/10/05/amo-and-pdo/

Origin of LOD wander What started as an effort to model the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) using Laplace's Tidal Equation (LTE) forcing…... https://geoenergymath.com/2026/10/02/origin-of-lod-wander/

Southern Annular Mode (SAM) ASL is Amundson Sea Low Like PNA, the Southern Annular Mode (also known as the Antarctic Oscillation) is considered random, or at best a teleconnection from some other index.... https://geoenergymath.com/2026/09/26/southern-annular-mode-sam/

Pacific North American index (PNA) This index goes back to 1950. The claim is : " As a pattern of internal climate variability, the state of the PNA occasionally changes…... https://geoenergymath.com/2026/09/25/pacific-north-american-index-pna/

Basin Dynamics The chart below is a fit to a Kaplan SST quad using an LTE solution described in Chapter 12 of Mathematical Geoenergy…... https://geoenergymath.com/2026/09/23/basin-dynamics/

The Winding Scalogram I came up with a potentially novel graphical representation that is analogous to a wavelet scalogram…... https://geoenergymath.com/2026/09/18/the-winding-scalogram/

Forced-Aliasing Model of the Chandler Wobble This page summarizes the key ideas developed in the conversation between Paul and Copilot regarding the forced-response origin of the Chandler wobble.... https://geoenergymath.com/2026/09/17/forced-aliasing-model-of-the-chandler-wobble/

Search for the Hidden Manifold An algorithm that simultaneously optimizes the model fit to two disparate climate indices while keeping the hidden latent manifold constant....

The search for the hidden manifold With the interest in the El Nino brewing, don’t neglect the AMO in the Atlantic. In my research, I apply tidal forcing as a driver for modeling climate indices, and have long noticed that a balanced ~120-year cycle emerges via interactions with the annual…

Discussion of QBO, CW, ENSO w/ KIMI.ai KIMI is a recent LLM with some positive word-of-mouth. Since it is new, I gave it a sequence of prompts as my initial interaction:...

Non-homogeneous & non-autonomous These two characteristics of differential equations often go hand in hand. A tidal response is fundamentally a forced problem, not a free oscillation problem.... https://geoenergymath.com/2026/06/16/non-homogeneous-non-autonomous/

NAO unfiltered The north Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a most erratic climate index, often showing full cycles spanning less than a year.... https://geoenergymath.com/2026/06/11/nao-unfiltered/

Revisit Sea Level Pressure paper Revisiting the post An obvious clue from tidal data, which is an analysis of this paper The effect of regional sea level atmospheric pressure on ... At the time, I did not try to duplicate the results, but after coming across it again, curiosity got the best of me.…

ENSO and AMO manifolds Basic geophysics to start. AMO is measured in the north Atlantic, and influenced by an annual cycle -- at a latitude that is inclined more to the Sun in the summer (peak declination is at summer solstice) than winter. ENSO resides on the equator, subject to the topological…

Blueprinting the most valuable company in the world? See How would you access this in terms of prescience in anticipating GPUs for computation … read the comments as well DeepSeek response: Based on the Gist you shared (a 1990 NSF SBIR report summary by P.R. Pukite), accessing this document’s…

Nonlinear Fluid Dynamics and NN Prompt to Google AI: possible that NN are effective in creating realistic fluid dynamics because they are emulating winding numbers that naturally arise in waves? More to come on this...

Deep Seek of Wind + ENSO This is a thread with DeepSeek, my prompts in italics bold. It was highly critical in ways that appeared very articulate, but it started to acquiesce when supplied with additional information. Not sure if this is due to a sliding or widening context window. In the past,…

Global Forcing, Local Modulation Revealed Gemini -- Conversation with Gemini The two CSV files are for NINO4 (lte_results) and MSL at Warnemunde (lte_results11). The 1st column is a shared time base. The 3rd column is data, and 2nd column is a model that takes a nearly shared 4th column (a hidden…

Forcing selection The two images attached are a lunar-oriented forcing cycle for model of ENSO (top) and another lunar-oriented forcing cycle for LOD of Earth's rotation (bottom). Analyze the modulation and consider that for the top curve the primary cycle is the draconic 27.2122 day period and…

GEM-LTE modeling February 2026 Cross-Validation Experiments: GEM-LTE Mean Sea Level and Climate Index Modelling Executive Summary GEM-LTE/experiments/Feb2026 at main · pukpr/GEM-LTE This directory contains results from a comprehensive cross-validation study applying the GEM-LTE (GeoEnergyMath…

Forcing of NAO and MSL in the Baltic Modeling LTE solutions from pukpr/GEM-LTE: GeoEnergyMath Laplaces Tidal Equation modeling and fitting software Warnemunde Mean Sea Level (#11 from PSMSL.org). Dashed lines are cross-validation intervals. North Atlantic Oscillation NAO (top) and Warnemunde MSL…

Hoyer Metric in LTE Model Fitting Modern signal processing and system identification frequently require quantifying the sparseness or "peakiness" of vectors—such as power spectra. The Hoyer metric, introduced by Hoyer , is a widely adopted measure for this purpose, especially in the context of…

The mystery of El Nino Google Gemini makes predictions on the next El Nino when prompted -- scroll to the end. There has ALWAYS been stratification in the ocean via the primary thermocline. The intensity of an El Nino or La Nina is dependent on the "tilt" of the thermocline across the equatorial…

Current status of research according to AI explain the Pukite tidal theory The Pukite Tidal Theory, primarily developed by researcher Paul Pukite, proposes that long-period tidal forcing is the underlying driver for several major geophysical and atmospheric cycles that have previously been…

Claude Code Oil Shock Model This took me all of a few minutes with Claude Code, given this prompt: create a convolution-based algorithm of the Oil Shock Model described in Mathematical GeoEnergy (Wiley, 2019). Add a pltting routine and keep hooks for parameterizing and comparing against empirical…

LLM logrolling in our time To preface this post, there was at one time a regular column in the long-defunct humor magazine Spy called "Logrolling In Our Time". The column exposed reciprocal favor-trading in literary media where authors and critics provided mutual, suspicious endorsements. The…

Spectral details in Chandler Wobble and QBO Using LLMs as peer-review devil's advocates for research findings can't hurt and can only help strengthen an argument. One of the common criticisms an LLM makes is that it will claim that a factor is "too weak" or insignificant to serve as a mechanism…

Peer review of peer review Prompted Claude with this: This is a submitted contribution to ESD Ideas, a journal committed to presenting innovative ideas in geophysics, relayed in short form of a couple of pages. Provide a peer-review based on what value it may provide for future research. (note…

Wind Distribution I prompted the Gemini LLM with the following to see how well it would summarize with so little context: Familiar with the BesselK wind distribution model pioneered by Pukite et al in Mathematical GeoEnergy? The BesselK Wind Model: A Maximum Entropy Derivation In the study of wind…

When are #LLM, #ChatGPT, #Claude, #OpenAI, #Anthropic, #DeepSeek, #Grok, #Gemini, #Perplexity, #ML, #AI, #CoPilot, #Antigravity , #GammaAI, #Llama, #Mistral, #xAI, #Google, #Kimi, #Meta going to take this challenge on? It will be a breakthrough in science discovery. github.com/pukpr/Chandl...

Pairing of solar and lunar factors A number of the Earth's geophysical behaviors characterized by cycles have both a solar and lunar basis. For the ubiquitous ocean tides, the magnitude of each factor are roughly the same -- rationalized by the fact that even though the sun is much more massive…

The perplexing Chandler wobble I had heard that Perplexity was an LLM geared to scientific research, so I gave it this prompt: Explain the Chandler wobble as due to a stroboscopic driving force emerging from the nonlinear modulation of an impulsed annual signal with the periodic declination torque…

10y ago JS Wettlaufer wrote in a PRL editorial : “Climate Science: An Invitation for Physicists” “New ideas will emerge from perspectives that come from the range of approaches used across all areas of physics. “ journals.aps.org/prl/abstract... AI can create an open world from which to draw from

ICE OUT Minnesota charts at: geoenergymath.com

Minnesota ICE-OUT update This is an update to analyzing the dates of Minnesota lakes ice-out events, as described on this blog years ago: Ice Out The trend has been that dates have been creeping earlier, corresponding to warmer winters. This is all automated, pulled from JSON data residing on a…

How can AI help climate science? www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...

Hidden latent manifolds in fluid dynamics The behavior of complex systems, particularly in fluid dynamics, is traditionally described by high-dimensional systems of equations like the Navier-Stokes equations. While providing practical applications as is, these models can obscure the underlying,…

amo.dat.p AMO trained on region outside of dashed line, so that's the cross-validated region, using Descent optimized LTE annual time-series, Python python3 ts_lte.py amo.dat --cc --plot --low 1930 --high 1960 using the following JSON parameters file amo.dat.p { "Aliased": [ 0.422362756,…

#Halloween #Science #ChatGPT #Peanuts

@scholarai what is the potential for QBO to be forced by tidal cycle mechanisms?

Taylor series expansion is a key to multiple harmonics in non-linear wave formulation pukite.substack.com/p/mean-sea-l...