Peter Foster

Resolution has applied my model to data up to 2025. As the chart shows, we can be less confident as time goes on. But firm-level evidence from Bloom et al shows a 6% loss. I think it's time to retire the OBR's 4%, which was a simple average of pre-Brexit forecasts.

This is a lot of ‘fun’🙈 — which is to say, genius illumination of fiscal drag effects. Dragging stealth tax out of the shadows, into the light.

New: 'Shark's fin' chart reveals the uneven impact of 'fiscal drag', the stealth tax beloved of recent chancellors. Plus use our interactive calculator to see how fresh freezes announced by Rachel Reeves at todays Budget could affect you on.ft.com/3KqOYUL

Lords Heseltine & Kinnock seem more alive to these self-evident truths than most members of the Commons. Similarly, I find thinkers with direct lived experience of far right dictatorship, Greeks of a certain age for example, crystal clear about what’s happening now.

AI pushers talk about it "augmenting" capacity, but that ignores human nature. Why walk or bike, when you can drive? It's easier, so most of us do, but you get fat & lazy. AI will do the same to a lot of people's brains, I fear. Via @financialtimes.com piece on AI habits ig.ft.com/ai-personal-...

WTO clings to signs Donald Trump still needs it — sometimes—While the US President’s unilateral tariffs have ridden roughshod over the WTO’s core principle of reciprocity in trade, diplomats argue… www.ft.com/content/15a9... @pmdfoster.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

Brutal BBC piece on how fast Switzerland’s glaciers are melting. Drill baby drill. 🎶🎵 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Magnificent peroration to Simon Schama’s @financialtimes.com weekend essay on defending freedom of speech in the era of Trump - with help from Milton, Jefferson et al. on.ft.com/4gSqvDw Simon Schama: What America’s Founders can teach Trump about liberty

Living. Working. Paying taxes. Contributing. This is a desperately poor editorial.

Brutal new MRP poll out today showing Reform at 311 and Labour support collapsing. Worth reading steaming @financialtimes.com column on Starmer by @robertshrimsley.bsky.social “Starmer can’t afford to wait for reckless Reform to implode” on.ft.com/3VxxCaR

Financing infrastructure without unnerving the bond market @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social @tonytassell.bsky.social @pickardje.bsky.social @marymcd.bsky.social @pmdfoster.bsky.social @greenmirandahere.bsky.social

'Tylenol' is known in the civilised world as Paracetamol 2.4 million children born in Sweden between 1995 and 2019. Studied 186,000 children whose mothers were treated with paracetamol during pregnancy. news.ki.se/no-link-betw...

I use this graph a lot.

The data is in -- tourism to US dropped after Trump came in, while tourism recovered in rest of world...foreign arrivals at American airports down 3.8% compared with 2024, or 1.3m fewer people. With more Americans going the other way. See charts via @economist.com www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

To even allow the appearance of this — Starmer’s No 10 adopting Trumpian media management policies — seems extraordinary to me. Very depressing.

on.ft.com/4nhvSyM NEW: Trump tariffs on EU medical devices will drive up US patient bills, industry claims …with a very testy White House response, which usually means they’re worried about it. Me and @judewebber.bsky.social for @financialtimes.com

Spending a couple of days at the @wto.org in Geneva taking the pulse at the annual Public Forum — the “Woodstock of world trade” as one rather enthusiastic participant put it. Lots of jokes about whether WTO even has a pulse these days. Might be on life support, but not dead quite yet…

Tariff exemptions to follow? 😏

Even Trump has had to walk back on this a bit, but the wider point as we've seen before is that raising barriers harms investment because companies need access to imports and skills. There's no new economic paradigm being created in the US.

The data that shows the internet removes guardrails and fuels populism — it’s either the unfiltered “will of the people” or digital mob rule. Take your pick. Grabs from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com piece here: on.ft.com/45WUaGw The end of the gatekeepers

What stood out to me from Richard Tice’s interview on #BBCR4Today was his praise of the economic policies of… George Osborne. I wonder if that stood out for @nadinedorries.bsky.social too?

Indeed: the populists do make people poorer, but then they blame anyone but themselves: immigrants, unions, foreign wars etc. Poor people are disgruntled. Ripe for exploitation by populists. Rinse and repeat. (As we’re seeing now)

As we prepare for the next tidal wave of nonsense around Reform in the UK, two points should stand out as the core rebuttal - economic issues the UK faces are the same as many other countries - populist right policies have made those issues worse

Honking endorsement for Farage, Johnson et la, without a moment’s reflection that 10 years of UKIPified Tory govt created the mess they’re railing about — booming benefits bills, bond market routs, immigration surges, trade slump and investment slumps. Bring back Boris and Nadine! That’ll fix it. 🙈

Useful comment about the complexity of de-globalization. @pmdfoster.bsky.social on.ft.com/47VkL9D

UK advertises contract to run Erasmus scheme Tender indicates ministers are preparing ground to rejoin European student swap programme. More from @financialtimes.com @pmdfoster.bsky.social @amyborrett.ft.com @andybounds.bsky.social on.ft.com/4pg1XbA #education #educationnews

What a picture. Captions anyone?

Great to talk to Capital Economics @neilshearing.bsky.social for latest edition of @financialtimes.com The Economics Show — he packs a lot into 30 mins! Free to listen. on.ft.com/4lPFaQZ After globalisation: What's next for a fractured world? With Neil Shearing

Singapore, UAE and other small nations to launch trade partnership—The new scheme, which a second diplomat said would be announced formally next month, emerged… www.ft.com/content/d233... @pmdfoster.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

Saying the quiet part loud. Independent agencies are democratic. Congress intentionally tasks dedicated people to focus on complicated decisions about labor (NLRB), securities (SEC), trade (FTC), or money (Fed), all whose aims and goals are determined by the elected legislature.

Good piece by @rafaelbehr.bsky.social -- someone needs to keep saying it. I've grown tired, moved on to Trumpworld, but good if the debate is coming back.

Farage’s “probity and judgment were sold as the product called Brexit. It turned out to be a piece of shit.” And, unbelievably, this Labour govt finds itself trapped because it has refused to call this out. What a profound - and now dangerous - political failure. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Depends what you mean by "valuable". Diplomatically, perhaps, economically less so. Govt own estimate is 0.3pc of GDP uplift -- versus consensus forecast of 4pm hit from leaving EU single market. You do the math.

This should help UK Govt be more courageous in the coming EU 'reset' negotiations...the EU will want ambition on youth mobility, which is a harder sell than the 'veterinary' deal Nick Thomas-Symonds is pushing on today. Of course all of this still relatively cosmetic for total trade purposes.

Seasonal Businesses in Travel (SBiT) and ABTA have revealed new research showing strong public support for securing a youth experience deal with the EU, as it urges the government to press ahead with negotiations with the EU following May’s UK-EU Summit. 1/n

How much longer can we tolerate the lopsided instability of Britain’s relationship with the EU? ANDREW DUFF (@andrewduffeu.bsky.social) argues that the current deadlock calls for an unusual Royal Commission to cut through parliamentary paralysis. verfassungsblog.de/the-case-for...

The @financialtimes.com brilliant FT Edit is now on Bluesky. Follow to get your ‘eight a day’ — essential for a healthy mind in a topsy-turvy world.

Welcome to FT Edit! When the news is overwhelming, we bring you eight stories a day, chosen by editors, offering clarity, fresh perspectives, insight and inspiration — plus some extra treats! Explore more at www.ft.com/ftedit or, if you're reading on iOS, find us on the FT app: on.ft.com/44SHfGA

The Briefing Room at 4 on #BBCRadio4 + #BBCSounds @davidsonofaaron.bsky.social and guests discuss whether we’re seeing a closer relationship between the UK and the EU? @pmdfoster.bsky.social @jillongovt.bsky.social @mijrahman.bsky.social

Was reading excellent James Kirkup @jkirkup.bsky.social piece on the coming pension crisis and the need to encourage saving…in which he warned against populist rabbble rousers. And then, forsooth, look what dropped into my inbox from GB News…🙄 www.thetimes.com/article/0552...

A good, uncomfortably contrarian take from @pmdfoster.bsky.social here makes us ask who is really ‘chickening out’ - on.ft.com/4nSFNv0

Who is the 🐔 here? Nice piece led by @pmdfoster.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/82e3...

There it is. Republicans just BLOCKED the release of the Epstein Files.

"Lunch with Dale Vince was never going to be chateaubriand at Hawksmoor..." what a start to this wonderful 'Lunch with the FT' where @pickardje.bsky.social meets the Ecotricity entrepreneur and eco-warrior. www.ft.com/content/8418...

🚨Don’t believe the myth: Britain’s services exports have been hit hard by Brexit Important @chrisgiles.ft.com piece writing up LSE paper. on.ft.com/3GyOyK5

Scoop: first signs of limits of UK-EU “reset”…EU says doesn’t want UK to join pan-Euro trade area; & digging in in Northern Ireland. With @andybounds.bsky.social @financialtimes.com on.ft.com/44IFdsh EU blocks Britain’s attempts to join pan-European trading bloc