PLFantasy

PLFantasy

@plfantasy.bsky.social

Fantasy Premier League. 1x Top-50, 1x Top-5k, 2x Top-10k, 8x Top-50k. https://plfantasy.substack.com/

793 followers317 following312 posts

When I saw the byline on this, I thought Barry was writing under a Canadian pseudonym and was excited to dig into his past articles. Alas

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Szoboszlai starting in midfield but potentially dropping back to RB late in the game to vacuum up some defensive contributions when the team are winning would be a useful situation for his FPL value. I did toy with the idea of dropping him on WC but this is why he's hard to look past.

Fantasy Football Scout@ffscoutfpl.bsky.social

LINE-UPS | #IPSLIV 🚜 IPS: Scherpen, O'Shea, Diop, Greaves, Davis, Palacios, Lukić, Fatawu, Enciso, Maeda, Emersonn 🔴 LIV: Alisson, Araújo, Jacquet, van Dijk, Kerkez, Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Gakpo, Wirtz, Munoz, Isak #FPL

Edmund: I then leapt on the opportunity to test you. I asked if you were a fan of one of PL challengers: Arsenal, Man City, or Hull… Mary: Well? Edmund: You failed to spot that only two of those are PL challengers Mary: You swine! Melchett: That’s right — City have no chance under Maresca!

Bruno's ownership dropping quite quickly after scoring a hattrick and looking incredible in the second half shows how hard it is to get ahead in FPL these days. 5 years ago he might go up 0.2m this week even as the sharps move over to Haaland.

Highlight of the "welcome back to FPL" was owning Thiago as he took a penalty against Kinsky, who I am also playing on the BB. If he scores I get +4 for Thiago (plus possible bonus), although -1 for Kinsky. If it's saved I get +5 for Kinsky and -2 for Thiago. So 3 points either way, right. RIGHT?

PLFantasy reposted

I am typically someone who tries to hold on to chips, perhaps too much so, but this season I think there is a really compelling case to not only considering an early wildcard, but actively picking your team on the assumption you will WC as early as GW3.

I am typically someone who tries to hold on to chips, perhaps too much so, but this season I think there is a really compelling case to not only considering an early wildcard, but actively picking your team on the assumption you will WC as early as GW3.

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There's a risk then that waiting until GW6 or beyond just means that you aren't able to hit on those key fixtures highlighted above, by perhaps only having Joao Pedro vs Coventry, or only having one ARS defender to open the season, but still end up WCing into a very similar lineup in GW6 anyway.

I think the GW3 wildcard is really exciting this year and with a few hours to go until deadline I think I am all in on it. Relatedly, that means likely going without Haaland which is certainly less exciting!

I am typically someone who tries to hold on to chips, perhaps too much so, but this season I think there is a really compelling case to not only considering an early wildcard, but actively picking your team on the assumption you will WC as early as GW3.

View full thread

I think all these players have the potential to be very good fantasy assets this season but other than maybe O'Reilly and Semenyo, I don't think they are options in GW1. We won't have enough info by GW3 to be certain about *all* these assets, but *some* of them are likely to emerge with more clarity

I am typically someone who tries to hold on to chips, perhaps too much so, but this season I think there is a really compelling case to not only considering an early wildcard, but actively picking your team on the assumption you will WC as early as GW3.

View full thread

3. Several teams have assets who aren't really viable in GW1 - whether because of playing time, fitness, or fixtures - but could become really interesting in just a couple of weeks' time. ARS: Saka (fitness), Rice (fitness), Konsa (new transfer, mins) BHA: Impact of European fixtures on mins

CHE: Rogers (mins), Palestra (role and mins), Palmer (role) EVE: Ndiaye (transfer) LEE: Justin (mins) LIV: Gakpo (transfer), Jacquet (mins), Frimpong (role and playing time) MCI: Semenyo (role), O'Reilly (mins), Anderson (role), Foden (mins) NEW: Wissa (mins) TOT: Solanke (mins)

I am typically someone who tries to hold on to chips, perhaps too much so, but this season I think there is a really compelling case to not only considering an early wildcard, but actively picking your team on the assumption you will WC as early as GW3.

View full thread

2. The league's top five teams (arguably) - Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Man Utd - play the promoted sides 9 times in the first 15 GWs. 6 of these fixtures come in the first 4 GWs: ARS v COV (1) MCI v COV (3) MUN v HUL (1) and IPS (2), LIV v IPS (3) CHE v HUL (4)

It's impossible to build a GW1 which includes multiple assets from each of these teams to attack these fixtures, and even if you could afford it, it isn't always clear which assets you might want. This is particularly true of CHE outside of Joao Pedro, MCI outside of Haaland, and ARS's attack.

I am typically someone who tries to hold on to chips, perhaps too much so, but this season I think there is a really compelling case to not only considering an early wildcard, but actively picking your team on the assumption you will WC as early as GW3.

1. With so many teams having new managers - including three of the league's best teams in Man City, Liverpool, and Chelsea - there is a lot of general uncertainty around playing time, formations, and rotation risk, undermining a large pool of players to start the season.

People now scoff because of his later career, but what Allardyce achieved at Bolton in those peak four seasons (8th, 6th, 8th, 7th) on a pretty small budget and when there was way less league parity from TV deals was really remarkable.

James Hell Brooks@kleinman.bsky.social

Cool graphic www.reddit.com/r/soccer/com...

PLFantasy reposted

Today’s free newsletter is about how LLMs are the perfect grift to exploit an economy dominated by do-nothing managers and executives disconnected from any real work, and how the facade is crumbling as companies pay the true cost of AI. www.wheresyoured.at/the-revenge-of-the-business-idiot/

wheresyoured.atRevenge of The Business IdiotIf you liked this piece, you should subscribe to my premium newsletter. It’s $70 a year, or $7 a month, and in return you get a weekly newsletter that’s usually anywhere from 5,000 to 18,000 words, in...

PLFantasy reposted

OK, this is wild. In September 2023, geophysicists across the world started monitoring a very odd signal coming from the ground under them. It was picked up in the Arctic. And Antarctica. It was detected everywhere, every 90 seconds, as regular as a metronome, for *nine days*. What the HELL? 1/

Despite living a quick ferry ride away from two host cities, I already had minimal interest in going to the World Cup given the absolute state of FIFA, but even I was shocked by the ticket prices. Not only outrageously high but also idiotically tiered.

A "value" ticket for Canada's first game - which could be against Wales, Northern Ireland, Bosnia or Italy - is more expensive than a ticket for the semi final. BMO isn't a big stadium and Toronto has a ton of Italian fans so they will get away with the pricing but its still eye watering.

The games in BC are comparatively cheap at "only" $370 for the cheapest tier, though as others have pointed out, the number of these value tickets is so limited that you'll likely need to have also paid out for a premium membership from the Canadian FA to even have a chance at "winning" them.

In normal circumstances I don't think I would be in a rush to bring in a player like Szoboszlai as he doesn't have a very high ceiling, his team aren't playing great (albeit still 6th in xG), and his position in the team isn't locked down.

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The downside is the possible suspension (he's on 4 YC) and the remaining possibility that he could yet spend some time at right back again: I don't think Slot has really figured out how to advance the ball with or without his full backs yet. Injuries suggest he may be needed more up field though.

With 5 FTs in hand, a relatively small gain from moving to Szoboszlai from someone like Minteh or perhaps Enzo (who will lose some value with Palmer returning) seems more viable than in past years and we perhaps need to adjust our valuation of rolling transfers to be more aggressive with such moves

In normal circumstances I don't think I would be in a rush to bring in a player like Szoboszlai as he doesn't have a very high ceiling, his team aren't playing great (albeit still 6th in xG), and his position in the team isn't locked down.

View full thread

The level to which people conflate bad team results with bad FPL players means that managers can overcorrect against a team like LIV, who are still a plus attacking team (1.6 xG90, 6th in PL), and have some very good fixtures coming up (BHA, tot, WOL, LEE, ful, ars, BUR)

Szoboszlai seems like his baseline is already a solid FPL asset and you can then layer on upside in terms of more minutes in attacking positions, Liverpool as a whole improving and pulling everyone's numbers up, and even getting the odd penalty.

In normal circumstances I don't think I would be in a rush to bring in a player like Szoboszlai as he doesn't have a very high ceiling, his team aren't playing great (albeit still 6th in xG), and his position in the team isn't locked down.

View full thread

A bit like Bruno F, one also likes the different routes to points here, as when Szoboszlai has played in a deeper role in midfield, he has been GREAT for defcons thanks to excellent recovery rate. Those tick down when playing on the right, but then we presumably get the higher attacking threat.

It seems to me that he is already a very solid pick and even with some time at right back, his numbers still track well against other midfielders who cost more and are receiving transfer attention right now:

In normal circumstances I don't think I would be in a rush to bring in a player like Szoboszlai as he doesn't have a very high ceiling, his team aren't playing great (albeit still 6th in xG), and his position in the team isn't locked down.

View full thread

That time spent at right back really suppressed his goal threat, which should tick up when deployed in central midfield (and potentially even higher if he gets minutes on the right wing). Small sample of course, but 2x shots and 4x xG suggests there is *something* there.

With Salah out of favour and Isak not always on the pitch, we also have the possibility of Szoboszlai taking penalties, as he did in the CL this week. I believe he is 15/16 from the spot in his career - with his sole miss coming as a 20 year old for RB Leipzig, and even then he hit the post.

In normal circumstances I don't think I would be in a rush to bring in a player like Szoboszlai as he doesn't have a very high ceiling, his team aren't playing great (albeit still 6th in xG), and his position in the team isn't locked down.

However, his positional flexibility (a) will help him stay on the pitch for the longer, even during the busy holiday period, and (b) has caused some noise in his data which might mean he is being somewhat undervalued. Let's split his mins between those at right back and in midfield:

And given the current discourse, and while we're sorting tables, who on this list is considered to be having a good season and who is considered to be an absolute disaster is interesting (recognizing that there is more to a good player than this one narrow stat)

I really need to know the stories behind Vardy's popularity in Alberta, Yildiz in the Northwest Territories, and Kiwior in PEI!

FBref@fbref.com

And here are the most viewed FBref player pages in Canada in 2025. 🇨🇦

PLFantasy reposted

Will Arnett was on Conan and told a story about how Conan dealt with the death of his parents by accusing Jason Bateman of killing them. It’s so funny.

Enzo Le Fée might be the final boss of "but he has penalties". I've barely seen him play, Review doesn't love his xMins, and his data is woeful BUT . . . he has penalties!

LOL

PLFantasy@plfantasy.bsky.social

Semenyo is obviously a good pick, but I do feel slightly hard done by for not owning him as he continues to rack up insane production from ~solid~ underlying numbers. A goal and an assist (and presumably 3 bps) from 0.23 xG+xA tonight.