Peterson Institute for International Economics

Trump's process of imposing & reversing tariffs produced four types of results, in rough chronological order: stabilization of financial markets, concessions from foreign governments, corporate investment pledges, & lower US consumer prices on some items.

International students who stay after graduation (OPT) cause large increases in innovation, entrepreneurship, and productivity in the US. I talked with @insidehighered.com about the US Administration's new tax on those students—>

@mdebolle.com joined @cnn.com to discuss the upcoming presidential runoff election in Brazil & how regardless of who wins, either candidate will face challenges in fixing Brazil’s economic woes.

Neither Lula nor Bolsonaro is well positioned to solve Brazil’s economic problems. A decisive turn toward illiberalism under Bolsonaro, however, would all but assure economic disaster, @mdebolle.com writes in @foreignaffairs.com.

I spoke with @pbsnews.org about the likely economic ripple effects of the US Administration's policy of international student exclusion.

Viewing the world economy as a system of chokepoints leads policymakers to focus on capabilities rather than strategy—fixate on what leverage they have, & what others have over them, rather than considering what happens when many build up chokepoint power all at once, Yeling Tan & coauthors write.

NEW: @ceciliamalmstrom.bsky.social & @inumanak.bsky.social write that there are strong prospects for deepening EU-Canada ties—but taking those ties to new heights will require addressing old objectives that remain unfulfilled.

The US government is in the midst of enacting sweeping, historic restrictions on lawful high-skill immigration. Last week I spoke at @piie.com on the economic impacts Americans can expect. 11 minute video—> www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KYY...

🗣️ @chadpbown.com (Peterson Institute for International Economics) speaking at one of our recent events, "Winning trade wars or securing trade peace?". ❓Can rules-based trade survive an era of geopolitical rivalry? 📽️ Catch up on the recording of the event: buff.ly/553Nm48

Differing findings of OECD & IMF studies highlight the challenges of accurately measuring Chinese industrial subsidies. Policymakers should avoid using disputed figures to justify protectionism, Nicholas Lardy writes.

China's Deposit Insurance Fund has a remarkably small financial buffer relative to the deposits it protects. At the end of 2025, its reported balance was RMB130 billion, an estimated 0.1% of insured deposits—far below the fund's 1.5% target. Read: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

The Trump admin's other industrial policies—including tariffs, import quotas, & tax credits—have offered benefits to numerous firms in favored industries & economic sectors. State capitalism, on the other hand, confers benefits on a single targeted firm.

(1/10) 🧵 In my piece in today’s FT, I argue that the corporate tax is an excellent tool for taxing the same wealth that proponents of billionaires’ taxes (or the CA wealth tax) are reaching for. as.ft.com/r/d49ec073-c...

NEW: The US government taking equity ownership in private corporations, aka state capitalism, has occurred on & off over the years, usually in emergencies. Under Trump, state capitalism has reached a high-water mark in the face of fiscal pressures, budget priorities, & Republican past objections.

Moderating a @piie.com online panel this morning on AI and Economic Transformation with 3 must-listens on all things AI: @chorzempa.bsky.social @filizunsal.bsky.social & @akorinek.bsky.social Register below. www.piie.com/events/2026/...

Land finance helped build China, but left local government finances hostage to the housing cycle. Now that the bubble has burst, China must recalibrate its fiscal system to fund public services, respond to shocks & support the country’s growth model transition without relying on land.

China reports exporting more goods to America than the US says it imports—particularly since early 2025, when the Trump admin sharply increased tariffs on China. The evasion of US tariffs appears to be an important contributor to that gap.

Who will get the marginal $ from #Venezuela’s revived oil output? Old bondholders? Judgment & arbitration award holders? Banks, bilaterals, new investors? The Venezuelan public? The answer is 🤷‍♀️…A new @piie.com post with my @georgetownlaw.bsky.social colleagues www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

School music programs are getting absolutely bodied by tariffs, per @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/b...

Freyja, a joint Europe-Ukraine antiballistic missile-defense project, could mark a positive step when Kyiv endures barrages of Russian missiles & drones, while supplies of the anti-ballistic missiles Ukraine needs to defend itself are insufficient.

ICYMI: The yuan overall still punches far below China's economic weight. Far from ditching the dollar, China is still tightly tied up in dollar-based global financial networks.

Ahead of Brazil's elections, @mdebolle.com writes that neither presidential candidate has presented a clear sense of what they would do about the country's fiscal & monetary problems or how they intend to manage Brazil's economy.

Watch the launch event live now: www.piie.com/events/2026/...

Wednesday at 9 AM, @rhg.com’s Daniel Rosen and @piie.com's Nicholas Lardy discuss and debate the future of China’s consumption. With Lizzi C. Lee. asiasociety.org/policy-insti...

We have once again updated our Trade War Timeline:

Alan Wolff was the Nixon administration’s lead international trade lawyer & drafted what eventually became Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act. “I have a long history with it. And it’s being misused.” Read the interview with Section 301's author:

Mexico's Sheinbaum has been in power for 2 years. The economy has preserved macroeconomic stability while growing very little, the labor share of income has continued to improve, & there has been an intentional weakening of key institutions, Alejandro Werner writes.

How far have US supply chains decoupled from China? @chadpbown.com joins Tim Phillips on #VoxTalks this week to examine US imports product by product, and why responses to the 2025 tariffs differed across consumer electronics, clothing and footwear. 🎧 Listen now: ow.ly/Usco50ZRvCI #EconSky #Trade

Happening now! Watch:

Join CEPR and @piie.com for the launch of the 29th Geneva Report. 30 September from 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM EDT The report authors, Valentina Bruno, Steven B. Kamin, Cédric Tille, and Ángel Ubide, in conversation with moderator Caroline Atkinson. Register to join online: cepr.org/events/genev...

Looking forward to discussing @lugaricano.bsky.social fantastic book Messy Jobs tomorrow @piie.com with @adamposen.bsky.social I think it’s one of the best frameworks we have to think about how AI is going to affect work. (And it’s superbly written, too). Livestream: www.piie.com/events/2026/...

The Greenland deal entrenches the existing status quo, making it a significant accomplishment for Danish & Greenlandic diplomacy, while affording Trump just enough changes to also claim victory.

NOW: @whitehouse.senate.gov speaks with @kclausing.bsky.social about the US debt & deficit outlook, the policy challenges ahead, & the implications of persistent fiscal imbalances. Watch live:

Starting soon! Hear from Hamilton Project Director @avivaaron-dine.bsky.social at this @piie.com event: www.piie.com/events/2026/...

SO SO great to join the amazing @kairyssdal.bsky.social on Marketplace! This time, we previewed the upcoming US-China summit between Presidents Trump and Xi. Have a listen 🎙️: www.marketplace.org/story/2026/0...

LISTEN: @chadpbown.com joined @marketplace.org to discuss what might come out of the Trump-Xi meeting.

This piece by my brilliant @piie.com colleage @adamposen.bsky.social may be the first time you have seen the United States described accurately as what its ruling regime has quickly made it: a "lesser power".

Live at 9a ET streaming event! Exciting and new! The Trump-Xi summit and possible future of US-China economic relations Me with Chad Bown, Yeling Tan, Marcus Noland www.piie.com/events/2026/...

Importing from China at scale, trading valued exports to stockpile critical supplies, & exchanging commercial hostages in the form of FDI will buy the necessary time & additional economic resources to strengthen American resilience, @adamposen.bsky.social writes.

NEW: At the Trump-Xi summit, the US government should seek increased imports of key strategic goods & more foreign direct investment from China, @adamposen.bsky.social writes in @foreignaffairs.com. This would buy Washington more time to diversify US sources of supply.

Political encroachment in statistical methods for political goals undermines confidence in the entire statistical system. That could hurt funding, response rates, and retention of expert staff, further degrading data quality. Read more at @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

The new OPT tax will harm our university system and severely reduce the attractiveness of a US education to the brightest young people from around the world. That will starve the US economy of innovation and reduce productivity growth and employment opportunities for all Americans. | cc @piie.com

Gary Hufbauer explores historic examples of US involvement with oil in Mexico, hard minerals in Peru, copper in Chile, & more to illustrate how the Trump administration's quest for secure control over foreign minerals seems bound to fail.

Both the Venezuela oil deal & the less reported USA Rare Earths acquisition of Brazil's critical minerals producer Serra Verde come at a pivotal moment for Latin America's frequently fraught relationship with the US—& have political risk baked in. By @mdebolle.com: