Kimberly Clausing

youtu.beCalifornia’s Billionaire Tax: The Economic Debate about Prop 40YouTube video by California Center for Population Research

It was such a pleasure being part of this important conversation. Thanks to @ccpratucla.bsky.social and @marthajbailey.bsky.social for putting this together.

California Center For Population Research@ccpratucla.bsky.social

CCPR hosted a fantastic discussion of Prop 40 (aka Billionaire Tax) youtu.be/tIHePQgh4AM with Emmanuel Saez, @kclausing.bsky.social & Lee Ohanian, moderated by Juliana Londono Velez and Kirk Stark. @uclacollege.bsky.social @uclalawreview.bsky.social

as.ft.comThere is a smarter way to tax the richIncreasing US corporate tax raises government revenues without harming the tax base

(1/10) 🧵 In my piece in today’s FT, I argue that the corporate tax is an excellent tool for taxing the same wealth that proponents of billionaires’ taxes (or the CA wealth tax) are reaching for. as.ft.com/r/d49ec073-c...

piie.comLessons from three global collective action problemsThis paper compares three global collective action problems, those involving climate change, international trade, and international taxation. First, each problem is assessed in terms of fundamental el...

(9/10) And the rest of the world has ample incentive to tackle tax competition and boost capital taxation too; strengthening the already substantial efforts on international tax agreements (Pillar 2) should be on the agenda in 2029. www.piie.com/publications...

(10/) Finally, a stronger corporate tax can handle the fiscal challenges of AI. We don’t know which firms win, or how much, or whether/how much the labor share of income will fall. But corporate tax is a flexible tool for allowing society to share in business success (w/o govt taking shares!).

as.ft.comThere is a smarter way to tax the richIncreasing US corporate tax raises government revenues without harming the tax base

(7/10) What about competitiveness? US corporations pay very little tax. We are more than 40 percent of the profits of the world’s biggest 2000 public corporations, a much larger share than US GDP in the world, yet we raise much less corporate revenue than peer countries.

(8/10) The proposals in the Hamilton paper would raise about 1 pp of GDP in new revenue, and still leave US corporate tax revenues below that of peer nations as a share of GDP. It would close about half that gap.

as.ft.comThere is a smarter way to tax the richIncreasing US corporate tax raises government revenues without harming the tax base

papers.ssrn.comCapital Taxation and Market PowerIn recent decades, market power has increased substantially, according to multiple measures that describe industry concentration, mark-ups, and business profita

(5/ 10) What are the downsides? Some argue that a corporate tax increase with stifle growth, but they are often focused on the hit to the cost of capital. A rents-based corporate tax hits only excess returns, minimizing efficiency loss. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

budgetlab.yale.eduThe Impact of Deficits on Costs for Households

(6/10) And fiscal responsibility can come with its own growth enhancing effects, including lower interest rates, helping both government budgets and households’ bottom line (due to lower mortgage payments, e.g.). budgetlab.yale.edu/research/imp...

as.ft.comThere is a smarter way to tax the richIncreasing US corporate tax raises government revenues without harming the tax base

economicstrategygroup.org$15 Trillion on the Table in 2029: Ordinary Taxes to Meet an Extraordinary Fiscal Moment • The Aspen Institute Economic Strategy GroupThe US national debt passed 100 percent of GDP in March 2026 and is projected to reach nearly 130 percent by 2039. This worsening fiscal outlook comes at a time when income inequality remains high and...

(3/) The corporate tax can also be a part of raising adequate revenue to deal with US fiscal imbalances, as I argue in a joint piece with Natasha Sarin out of @aspenecon.bsky.social. www.economicstrategygroup.org/publication/...

(4/10) The corporate tax reaches all of US equity income, including that held by foreigners, tax exempts, or tax preferred accounts.

as.ft.comThere is a smarter way to tax the richIncreasing US corporate tax raises government revenues without harming the tax base

hamiltonproject.orgThe future of US international corporate tax reform - The Hamilton ProjectKimberly Clausing proposes to strengthen and reform U.S. corporate taxation while better aligning U.S. corporate tax policy efforts with the potential of international collective action.

(2/10) This piece builds on my proposal from @hamiltonproject.org to shift the corporate tax toward a rents base, raise the rate on fewer than 2 percent of payers, and pair that rate increase with stronger minimum taxation and a new round of tax cooperation. www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...

(1/8) New Paper 🧵! Out today, my piece with Natasha Sarin out of @aspenecon.bsky.social, on the importance of raising revenue in the time ahead. (As today’s interest rates remind us!) We argue that tried-and-true tax policy choices can meet our extraordinary fiscal moment.

(7/8) Still, we hope our framework shows how much revenue is on the table in terms of sensible, time-tested, reforms. Such reforms would also collect more from winners in today’s economy (to help fund a strong safety net for others).

(8/8) Even if half of these measures were adopted, it will improve the US fiscal trajectory a lot, nearly stabilizing debt relative to GDP and lowering interest costs for both the government and households. Paper link: www.economicstrategygroup.org/publication/...

(5/8) Funding the IRS is a no-brainer that can help honest taxpayers by raising much needed funds for the fisc (w/o tax rate increases), improving service, better targeting audits at tax cheats, and reducing the disadvantage faced by honest firms/industries relative to those that skirt taxes.

(6/8) We also suggest a menu of “sin” taxes and some other revenue buckets (returning some tax policy parameters to earlier levels, incremental individual capital tax measures). Altogether, the menu raises $15t, but we are under no illusion Congress will do all of this.

(3/8) Take the corporate tax. With a bit of redesign, it can fall cleanly on rents, be resilient in the face of tax competition challenges, and raise serious revenue in a fair and efficient manner. We suggest how, drawing on my recent Hamilton paper. www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...

(4/8) The corporate tax is a better way to tax capital than many, since it doesn’t exempt foreigners, endowments, or retirement earnings. It can reach billionaires, respond to offshoring, and handle the challenge of taxing AI profits, regardless of how that turns out.

(2/8) Spending can also play a role, but we focus on tax. Absent the tax cuts of recent years, there would be a far smaller fiscal problem. And the United States is a low tax country with a high debt burden, compared to our peers.

youtube.comIntangible Yet Real: Spillovers From Corporate Income TaxationYouTube video by IMF

Such a pleasure talking with IMF and World Bank economists (and others) on this important work on corporate tax spillovers coming out today, as a chapter in October's World Economic Outlook. www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrOb...

Kimberly Clausing reposted

IZA@LISER

@iza.org

🌍 Restricting international #STEM students would cost the U.S. economy billions 🆕IZA Discussion Paper by @mclem.org, J. Neufeld & A. Nice examines what would happen if policy changes restricted the # of intl. STEM graduates transitioning into the U.S. workforce. 🔗 www.iza.org/publications... 1/2

occcm.orgOpen Coalition on Compliance Carbon MarketsThe Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets brings together countries or jurisdictions that have decided to move forward together in the decarbonization of the global economy. The initiative aims ...

13 Sept

Happy to be a part of this effort. These forced labor tariffs make no sense unless they are understood for what they are: a clear attempt to take authority that belongs to Congress. The tariffs bear no relation to possible underlying harms; they merely create a distortionary and regressive tax.

Stan Veuger@stanveuger.bsky.social

Pleased to present the economist amicus brief we filed yesterday in support of plaintiffs in litigation against the administration’s latest round of worldwide tariffs, imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

Kimberly Clausing reposted

Catherine Wolfram

@cwolfram.bsky.social

12 Sept

The Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets has a website! #occcm occcm.org

Kimberly Clausing reposted

AEA Journals

@aeajournals.bsky.social

11 Sept

Very little of America’s post–World War II debt burden was reduced through economic growth alone, say researchers at the IMF and @jhuartssciences.bsky.social. They argue that interest rate distortions played a significant role. #econsky www.aeaweb.org/research/wwi...

aeaweb.orgThe US debt-to-GDP ratio since 1946A reexamination of how America shed its post-World War II debt.

Kimberly Clausing reposted

Cullen Hendrix

@cullenhendrix.bsky.social

10 Sept

The great irony of contemporary US politics: you're already getting socialism—and the Democratic Socialists have nothing to do with it. My latest for @piie.com.

piie.comYou're already getting socialism—and Democratic Socialists have nothing to do with itThe election of New York mayor Zohran Mamdani and the surprising performance of Democratic Socialist or DSA-aligned candidates in Democratic primaries across the United States is reviving interest in ...

Kimberly Clausing reposted

Justin Wolfers

@justinwolfers.bsky.social

9 Sept

In 1937, Stalin's census found the famine killed millions.⁣ ⁣ His government suppressed the report and shot the statisticians who made it.⁣ ⁣ Three weeks ago, that kind of suppression was illegal in America. Now it isn't. https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/the-sentence-that-used-to-protect

newsletter.platypuseconomics.comThe Sentence That Used to Protect American Statistics"Protection from inappropriate influence is a hallmark of scientific integrity." That line governed the Census Bureau and then the White House quietly disappeared it.

Kimberly Clausing reposted

Stan Veuger

@stanveuger.bsky.social

9 Sept

@graemeblair.com, David Hausman, and I organized an amicus brief in Genalo v . G.M., a case the Supreme Court will hear in October. The case revolves around the question of whether due process requires bond hearings for those subject to prolonged immigration detention under Section 1226(c).

science.orgBuilding a scalable climate coalition for heavy industryEmissions could be reduced, with minimal impact on production, while generating billions in public revenues

8 Sept

So happy to be part of this effort on climate coalitions, spearheaded by @cwolfram.bsky.social, who provides a great thread here. See also our recent piece in Science discussing these ideas. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Catherine Wolfram@cwolfram.bsky.social

I'm delighted to announce the release of the Flagship Report of the Global Climate Policy Project at Harvard and MIT Working Group on Climate Coalitions on "Building a Climate Coalition: Aligning Carbon Pricing, Trade, and Development." ceepr.link/3VmgC7g A 🧵 on what we do/find:

ceepr.linkceepr.link

science.orgBuilding a scalable climate coalition for heavy industryEmissions could be reduced, with minimal impact on production, while generating billions in public revenues

4 Sept

So delighted to be part of this project! Great thread from @cwolfram.bsky.social on our paper in Science.

Catherine Wolfram@cwolfram.bsky.social

New paper in @science.org: As of 2025, 80 carbon-pricing instruments were in place across 50 jurisdictions. By coordinating across systems, we can increase emission reductions and avoid trade barriers from a profusion of different border adjustments. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

open.substack.comDemocrats should vow to surrender in the Canada trade warGood politics, good policy, and the search for a peaceful world require complete repudiation of this nonsense.

31 Aug

(1/2) Free trade is a winning issue for Democrats, something I've argued for some time (albeit w/o success during Biden); see next tweet for one example. Democrats should vow to surrender in the Canada trade war open.substack.com/pub/matthewy...

thehill.com/opinion/camp...

31 Aug

thehill.com5 reasons Democrats should be the party of free tradeWhile we’ve been distracted by the scapegoating of trading partners and immigrants, the administration has made the economic lives of the middle class more precarious.

Kimberly Clausing reposted

IIPF - International Institute of Public Finance

@iipf.bsky.social

26 Aug

Final keynote at #IIPF2026 : @kclausing.bsky.social on "Evaluating Trump's Tariffs by Tax Policy Criteria"; chair: @ronbdavies.bsky.social (by far not the last event in the program; more working sessions to follow + IIPF and @itaxjournal.bsky.social awards to be announed at closing dinner)

Kimberly Clausing reposted

Catherine Rampell

@crampell.bsky.social

20 Aug

Hear me out. What if instead of selling food below cost to all comers at taxpayer expense, then using more taxpayer dollars to subsidize private companies that can't compete, we had a program targeting nutritional assistance just to the people who needed it, as a sort of supplement?

nytimes.comU.S. Debt Hits $40 Trillion as America’s Borrowing Binge ContinuesPresident Trump’s promises to restore fiscal order and reduce the amount of America’s debt burden have been undercut by spending on the Iran war, tax cuts and tariff refunds.

19 Aug

Maybe now that the bond market cares, US policymakers will follow? Eventually? Carville "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.

taxpolicycenter.orgWho Would Be Affected By A Decrease In The Estate Tax Exemption?Estate taxes are one segment of the federal tax code that can tax wealth, yet they used to be much stronger. TPC simulated the effects of different exemption levels to find out how the would affect cu...

18 Aug

The politics of this tax are mystifying. Why object to increasing taxes on the transfer of intergenerational wealth if only the richest 4 in 1000 pay? Returning to 2009 policy & ending loopholes should be a no-brainer. And yet. @taxpolicycenter.bsky.social taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/who-w...

17 Aug

While the parade of news may desensitize readers, the human cost (and moral bankruptcy) of Trump immigration policies is enormous. Many do not have the legal assistance/connections that benefit the woman in this example, who says "I never thought that it was so easy to take freedom from anyone".

The New York Times@nytimes.com

He voted for President Trump three times. He never imagined the immigration policies he supported would ensnare his own wife. Read more: nyti.ms/3SDOyhV

nytimes.comOpinion | Trump Is Trapped in a Maelstrom of His Own MakingThe president’s zero-sum mind-set is turning us all into losers.

12 Aug

In which I take my gloves off (see end of piece). Trump Is Trapped in a Maelstrom of His Own Making www.nytimes.com/2026/08/11/o...

giftarticle.ft.comEurope’s carbon mechanism is a tariff by another nameThe EU has denounced US duties while imposing its own protectionist measures dressed up as climate policy

12 Aug

(1/2) This US ambassador to the EU is deeply confused. The EU cbam applies EU carbon policy evenly to domestic and foreign goods alike; it is not discriminatory. In contrast, US tariffs are just that, protectionism. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

piie.comPutting progress over protectionism in climate policyThe COP28 climate summit in Dubai ended this month with a historic pledge to hasten the transition away from carbon emissions caused by fossil fuels. But that commitment is toothless without incentive...

12 Aug

(2/2) Some of these distinctions are discussed in my 2023 blog w/ @cwolfram.bsky.social below. (We also wrote a 2023 JEP article for those who want more details: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...) www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

piie.comWho pays for tariffs? Insights from recent researchThe Trump administration has mounted many varied claims to support its trade war, but a central argument is that foreigners, not US citizens, pay the price for tariffs. As discussed in our first blog,...

3 Aug

Out today: part 2 of my blog with Maurice Obstfeld on why so-called "optimal" tariffs are not optimal. Within, we discuss the latest research on tariff incidence, and what we've learned from the Trump tariffs so far...

Peterson Institute for International Economics@piie.com

Part 2: One of the biggest impediments to "optimal" tariffs improving national welfare is that it is US households & businesses who have borne most of the burden of Trump's tariffs in practice. Read here:

Kimberly Clausing reposted

Douglas Irwin

@douglasirwin.bsky.social

1 Aug

They always say their tariff worked

piie.com“Optimal tariffs” are far from optimal: Part 1Advocates of President Donald Trump's tariff policies often bash economists for ignoring real-world complexities. Yet administration officials happily invoke the abstract theoretical concept of the "o...

30 July

(1/2) My new blog out today with Maurice Obstfeld. We discuss why so-called "optimal tariffs" are far from optimal. In part 1 today, we show problems with the textbook argument, and note that other tax instruments are superior for the underlying aims.

Peterson Institute for International Economics@piie.com

"Optimal" tariffs are misnamed, @kclausing.bsky.social & Maurice Obstfeld write, & do not lead to a net gain in national welfare in practice—in fact, they harm US interests. Tariffs are also not an efficient way to shift tax burdens from US residents onto foreigners.

Peterson Institute for International Economics

30 July

(2/2) Even beyond the distortions, regressivity, dysfunction, and harm to foreign relations, tariffs are also failing as a revenue instrument. To give some perspective, total federal revenues are about 20x tariff revenues for 2025, and in 2026 tariff revenues will be lower.

Kimberly Clausing reposted

@piie.com

27 July

Trump's Section 301 tariffs reach beyond the statute’s intention @kclausing.bsky.social says, & the focus on forced labor “is a mere pretext for recreating the IEEPA tariff regime.” There's “no evidence linking this sort of trade measure to the supposed policy goal” of cracking down on forced labor.

cnbc.comTrump sued hours after new tariffs take effect, as experts say they may not hold upPresident Donald Trump has renewed a flurry of tariffs, including slapping 25% duties on Brazilian imports and vowing 50% tariffs on goods from Canada.

Kimberly Clausing reposted

Catherine Rampell

@crampell.bsky.social

24 July

under the cloak of boring technical guidance, the Trump administration is working to delete the existence of millions of immigrants, steal congressional seats and redirect potentially hundreds of billions of federal dollars www.thebulwark.com/p/inside-tru...

thebulwark.comInside Trump’s Stealth Trick to Rig the Census—and CongressThe administration’s latest power grab is disguised as boring technical guidance.