Jonathan Bernstein

During *that* inning I was on the phone but noticed an anti-*Moody* attack ad here in Texas. Didn't see the sponsor, but someone doesn't think that one is over! Hmmmm.

This week's "Losing loser loses again" is off to a very strong start.

One of the hallmarks of Trump is that he lies repeatedly about elections that he won.

Hey guys. All y’all calling for a Truth Commission, just know, it’s way more complicated than the hero narratives will have you believe… www.news24.com/opinions/fea...

This is sensible, although as usual I will be staying up much too late. But two key and absolute additions: *Ignore any leaked exit polls! *Ignore any swings in the prediction markets!

If only I still did Catch of the Day posts.

Cool but what I like is when there's a major prize fight and the WS on Breeders Cup Saturday so we get 1920s sports day - high-profile baseball, racing, boxing, and college football.

In politics, speech = action. Letters are a form of speech. Speech alone can be insufficient...but sometimes it's just what's needed; other times, it's insufficient but the best available option. Alas an effective letter can look very similar to a futile, pointless letter. Need to know the system.

Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)

In about 24 hours, poles will open here in Israel. In what is a strong contender for Israel’s most critical elections. The election pits Netanyahu’s extremely unpopular coalition against a non-coherent, but moderately more liberal, opposition. Here are some thoughts as we head into it.

Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...

Told my husband that the vibe on Bluesky tonight can best be described as “Ewok party.”

Betting markets, about as good as reading the news.

Van Hollen will turn 70 just before Jan 20 2029.

I am thoroughly confused by a string of good news in the news and going to try really hard to just accept it as good news without worrying about jinxes or what comes next or what have you.

the disinformation and propaganda is going to be epic, be prepared

I have thoughts: now.tufts.edu/2026/09/16/w...

Here are my thoughts on the oral argument: electionlawblog.org/2026/ninth-c...

I'm no DOJ maven but I can assure people who are even less expert than I am that this kind of thing is not at all normal. (Or at least it wasn't pre-Trump).

No, it's a reason to have the robots call all the pitches instead of turning accurate balls and strikes into a strategy game.

I would feel bad for the DOJ lawyer getting creamed by this panel but he is taking an evil position and trying to subvert free and fair elections.

Bigotry isn't the GOP's primary selling point, heading into the Midterms. It's their *only* selling point.

I would love to see the tracker over time of whether people believe Trump when he makes these announcement.

Yup. Look: We don't know. It's possible that there's polling error that will turn a Dem landslide into a mild Dem win. But people have been underrating the downside risks for Republicans all cycle, and are still doing so.

I wrote in defense of ignorant and stupid voters. Also, in case you don't want to be ignorant, all the links. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/what-about...

Trump is sure acting as if there's no way that Murkowski could cross the aisle and she probably won't but presumably the more he pushes her, the more likely it gets.

The standard for a checked swing in modern baseball is just silly, as well as ahistorical. From the great @sammillerbb.bsky.social: pebblehunting.substack.com/p/what-if-al...

One big part of intergenerational bunt discourse is a lack of respect for the witches. It’s not that guys can’t bunt any more, it‘s that bunting 98 is far harder than bunting 82.

Totally broken. Bring on the robots.

I mean yeah it's two outs and a non-hitter on deck...but you might have thought about that instead of bunting earlier in the inning. Oof.

Absolutely...except I don't know what that is (well, I can guess), and in my world it's consecutive 66s. (Or making six consecutive 10s in craps, I suppose.) Either way, @jlazarus.bsky.social is entirely correct.

Presumably this will last until someone notices that pardons remove 5th Amendment protections, but I suppose with this gang of clowns you never know.

I don't know...The President of the United States himself informed us that Iran was totally defeated and had zero capabilities any more. We're not going to call the President of the United States an ignorant liar, are we?

Two old Bill James things: - There's lots to managing beyond what you can learn from tabletop games, but managers should know cold what you can learn from them; - Stuff on the bases that works in the season backfires in the postseason when you run into championship-level fielding.

Nonsense. Not only is it clearly true that big markets such as Milwaukee and Tampa Bay have huge advantages, but they're so dominant that small-markets such as Cleveland, San Diego, Los Angeles, and New York start the season without any realistic hope of competing since the same teams win eery year.

Every aspect of life as a gay man is unimaginably better than it was when I was born in the mid 80s. We beat the plague that was killing us by the hundreds of thousands and then won broad social and civic equality.

Oh also in my lifetime but not my memory - the demise of the 1921-1964 Yankees dynasty. Also the ballparks. Lots of baseball-related stuff, no matter how hard Manfred/Selig/Kuhn/etc. try.

Just about everything about food; outdoor air quality (the smog is gone); indoor air quality (the cigarette smoke is gone); TV; access to (almost) all of the old TV/movies/recorded music is wonderful; much, much more.

I'm sure these are all correctly debunked but I really do think that what's fueling tariffs is some combination of (1) Trump thinks it's free money and (2) Trump likes the word "tariff."

this is a really good point. elections are part of a much larger process, and the relationships among individuals and groups matter.

[Yeah, yeah, it gets old to say it but still necessary - this alone is grounds for legitimate impeachment and removal. Adding it to my list].

“coalition maintenance is often a lot more important to future elections than maximizing (survey-based, general) public opinion.” This this this this this this this this this

The thing about impeaching Hegseth is normally presidents don't choose wildly inappropriate people for key exec branch positions and if they do the Senate won't confirm them and if it does anyway and then the person screws up constantly the president will axe them so it never comes to impeachment.