midwest academic, political science + psychology / inveterate fan of The Fall / cat enthusiast / boring social democrat / photographer / fix yr hearts or die
anyway, I am going to see neo-Sleep next week; I got the ticket before realizing that Matt Pike was no longer in the gruppe but seeing Cisneros perform with Dale Crover of the Melvins and Bubba Dupree of Void is still a good way to kill a couple of hours
I've come around to the same take on the new 'Sleep' record as the new record by 'The Fall': both are good but should have been released respectively under the names 'Cisneros, Dupree, & Crover' (a la some 70s supergroup like West, Bruce & Laing or Emerson, Lake & Palmer) and 'Smith/Blaney' instead
I've come around to the same take on the new 'Sleep' record as the new record by 'The Fall': both are good but should have been released respectively under the names 'Cisneros, Dupree, & Crover' (a la some 70s supergroup like West, Bruce & Laing or Emerson, Lake & Palmer) and 'Smith/Blaney' instead
45 years ago today, I was taking photos of Bauhaus at Birmingham's Locarno. It was only the second concert that I photographed. Thankfully, they were a very photogenic band THREAD 1 of 4
"A Genocide Was Committed in Sudan’s El Fasher. A Year Later, Survivors Recount the Horrors"
The RSF killed, raped, & disappeared thousands as they overran North Darfur’s capital in Oct 2025. No one has been held accountable in the year since, writes Eisa Dafallah.
zeteo.com/p/a-genocide...
In fact I will say the Earnest and Pious Charismatic Ethnic Minority political figure (AOC, Mamdani, El-Sayed) has been a pretty good bet for the American left so far, whereas the Disaffected Gruff White Guy Showcasing True Masculinity (Fetterman, Platner) has been a worse bet. Just an observation.
Yeah start insinuating he has morning chai rather than coffee, say that he knocks things for 6 rather than hits a home run, allege that he is generally a clean living good boy who loves his mother and prays every Friday (pejorative).
“Flávio has given up. He’s terrified. He is worried his father will die in jail, that he himself will be jailed this week and that he may have a long prison term ahead.”
“you should not give a damn what happens in other major democracies” is the epitome of the glib self-hating cosmopolitanism of a significant segment of the US commentariat
I just think Matt's wrong about this. We're at a point in our technological development where a ton of problems spill over national borders--if Flavio Bolsonaro burns down the Amazon, that will flood houses in Miami.
BREAKING: Judge Reyes issues a preliminary injunction in the East Potomac Golf Course case, blocking more tree removal and requiring 10-day notice "before making any irreparable modification to any forms or features" of the park.
Background: www.lawdork.com/p/golf-argum...
i don't think anyone should run explicitly on banning online gambling but i do think that a democratic-led government should just quietly take steps to undermine the industry and create an inhospitable regulatory environment
"Under Brazilian federal law, all legislators have immunity...To run for President, Bolsonaro decided not to run for his Senate seat. Now, after losing the Presidential election, he no longer has legislative immunity when his Senate term expires in January 2027."
Very Special Episode of no amnesty
Flávio Bolsonaro had his passport confiscated by the Brazilian fed police as his brother Eduardo told him to flee to the US.
He is tied to paramilitary gangs, is being investigated & lost his legislative immunity when he left the Senate to run for president.
paydayreport.com/brazilian-fe...
NEW: As expected, on a 2-1 vote, the Ninth Circuit dismisses DOJ's appeal in the US v. California case over DOJ's claims relating to "likely noncitizen" voting. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
NEW: In rare Sunday arguments, appeals court judges skeptical of DOJ’s California election lawsuit.
The lawsuits in California and Alaska are expected to fail — but they also show how far A.G. Todd Blanche will go to advance Trump’s aims.
Tonight, at Law Dork:
I agree with this in broad strokes, but the underlying connective tissue here is more of a character problem: this administration is simply bad at authoritarianism.
Their policy judgment and execution has been ham-handed and incompetent because *they* are ham-handed and incompetent
Three moments broke Trump 2.0:
1) Kimmel and other attempted censorship after Charlie Kirk. Made public see the attack on speech.
2) Minnesota anti-ICE protests, Goode and Pretti killings. Made public see the attack on rights.
3) Iran war. Made public see bad foreign policy affects them directly.
NEW: "Donald Trump was an active participant in Jeffrey Epstein’s sexual abuse of young women during the mid-to-late 1990s," per new House Judiciary Dem report.
Report has new allegation that Trump raped a 24-year-old and then promised the victim a visa & NYU admission, demanding she stay quiet.
The man who has spent more money on politics in the last 2 years than George Soros has in his entire lifetime never says anything positive about his guy Ken Paxton. But he does serve up a steady diet of this stuff.
You really need to work hard to be the most obsequious member of Trump’s cabinet — by, for instance, eating lunch at Cheesecake Factory and alerting Fox Business, so they can interview you in defense of Obama’s joke about the White House decor. Well done Secretary Bessent! Your move, Doug Burgum!
Over 2,000 alumni from Vivek’s all-boys catholic high school in Cincinnati have signed and circulated a petition demanding that he pull the ad and issue a public apology for “ignoring the moral responsibilities” of his Jesuit education. I think he’s pretty cooked.
I do also think that empirical research *generally* sheds reasonable doubt on whether political professionals accurately predict what issue messages -- for example, the anti-trans ones that consultants seem to be recommending to some Democratic candidates this cycle -- actually land, i.e.,
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...
The spectre of moral relativism is prominent in this regard. So is the reduction of politics to a technocratic/instrumental electorate-management exercise, furthering what Habermas referred to as the 'repression of ethics as such.' There's a real atrophy of democracy involved. (14/n)
In sum, there's a decent amount of what we know as social scientists that sheds doubt on the rationality (instrumental and/or substantive) of anti-trans appeals. (15/15)
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...
Elite/pundit focus on those 1-2 specific questions distorts the public's views on the issue and manufactures a level of transphobia that is exaggerated; it also primes issue-related considerations that potentially boost transphobic sentiment above & beyond what would arise otherwise. (12/n)
The last few points worth making here are normative in nature. What happens if there is not a limit to instrumentally-motivated position-taking? Should we be open to denying the universality of human rights for a vote share percentage, particularly an uncertain one? (13/n)
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...
In this regard, elite commentary on trans issues often centers on responses to 1-2 survey topics, e.g., sports participation, bathroom use, and so on, where opinion is less supportive of trans people. (10/n)
What is often ignored are results that point in a different direction, toward people's expressed attitudes about other aspects of trans issues -- e.g., mass publics often express wide support for the broad principle of equality, (11/n) www.hrc.org/resources/tr...
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...
One reason why issue voting is difficult for many voters is that individuals often have complex / ambivalent beliefs about an issue, which do not always point in the same direction and make survey responses unstable. (8/n)
Among other things, this complicates the notion of saying what a person's single attitude toward an object -- if it depends on what is made salient. (9/n)
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...
Stepping back, it's also generally the consensus of political scientists that *most* voters lack the information and engagement to be issue voters, regardless of issue. The kind of voter whose party preferences are weak enough to be swayed may not even be clued in enough to receive messages (7/n)
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...
But experimental results for an ad don't matter of the issue is not important or low on the agenda for voters. In 2024, the economy dominated voters' attention. In contrast, in Gallup data, trans issues polled at the bottom of the league table in terms of perceived importance to voters. (4/n)
The best evidence we have is that perceived economic conditions in 2024 shaped the collective behavior of the electorate. This was not just the case in the US, but everywhere: incumbents lost vote share in almost all 2024 elections, e.g., (5/n) www.ft.com/content/e8ac...
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...
Julia mentions the classic minimal-effects finding of research on political advertising. There are some qualifications to this, but it is a finding that generally holds up in controlled interventions, e.g., (2/n) pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
Beyond this basic point, a claim that looms large over discourse on this issue is the folk belief that trans issues won the 2024 election for Trump & the GOP. A lot of this is extrapolation from poll-testing of a single prominent ad, i.e., (3/n) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_...
Lot of fear of people lying to polls. We don't have much evidence for it & don't need it to explain error. People uncomfortable sharing their choice are more likely to be in the now ~98% of people who don't respond than to take ~20 min survey to lie. Non-response much bigger deal
In his acceptance speech, Lula says he will work to regulate digital platforms in Brazil. “Digital crimes must be dealt with like real-life crimes.” This comes after Meta directly interfered with the Brazilian elections, favouring Flávio Bolsonaro.