Jesse Felder

NEW BLOG POST: ‘Move Slow And Make Things’ thefelderreport.com/2026/10/24/m...

”From our perspective, investors in credit are saying ‘anything but tech,’” said Andrzej Skiba, head of fixed income at RBC Global Asset Management. “You can’t promise capex at a breakneck speed when the funding market is about — or close to — shut,” he added. www.marketwatch.com/story/ai-deb...

‘Even successful and highly profitable technology companies are struggling to afford the enormous costs of AI... How to summarize the sentiment among AI firms right now? “Take it when you can. Everyone is going to need more.“‘ www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...

‘Meta’s new stock offering along with Anthropic’s upcoming IPO will add to the surfeit of supply of equity, posing a structural headwind for the stock market. Net equity supply in the second quarter was the highest on record, coming in at over $150 billion.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

‘For pension officials and the workers they serve, some of the anxiety stems from past crashes. That includes the GFC, which delivered a major financial blow to public pensions. Another major calamity could force states to commit their own funds to plug any holes.‘ www.nytimes.com/2026/10/27/b...

‘High inflation will persist in the global economy well into next year, according to hundreds of economists polled, who are now increasingly concerned that price pressures will become entrenched beyond rising energy costs caused by conflict in ​the Middle East.’ www.reuters.com/world/china/...

‘Because the VIX is used as a key variable to signal trouble in the wider equity world and within multi-asset portfolios, regulators and central banks worry ​that it's understating the level of risk building. They cite the rise of "volatility suppression" trades.’ www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

‘Maybe the deal clustering is a byproduct of an overheated market. Valuations remain high, the window is open, and companies are raising money while they can. On this reading, the rush of deals reflects naked opportunism as issuers try to catch the market before it turns.‘ www.ft.com/content/689a...

‘One reason it has been hard for arrangers of the deal to persuade other banks to pitch in: Debt markets are getting indigestion from hundreds of billions of AI-related bonds. Many banks are still trying to unload loans they already committed to, limiting capacity.’ www.wsj.com/finance/broa...

‘If Anthropic’s colossal paper losses shouldn’t count in adjusted earnings, neither should the large paper gains on the other side of its deals. During the second quarter alone, such gains at Amazon and Alphabet represented about 15% of S&P 500 earnings.’ www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

‘Private-equity firms are racing to negotiate loan extensions on much of a $300 billion wall of debt that is coming due starting in 2028. It is a pressing need that is intensifying because rising interest rates have made refinancing more expensive this year.’ www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

‘Deloitte estimates that around $5.4 trillion is extended in securities-based lending, mostly against stock and bond portfolios but also funds and crypto.’ www.wsj.com/finance/the-...

‘A popular model maintained by the NY Fed says short-term rates will average 4.3% over the next decade, which implies today’s rates are relatively low.‘ www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

‘Net equity issuance is expected to be its largest since the 2000 bubble. And this understates it because it doesn’t include all the stock-based comp which has become the norm of late.’ bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/that-giant... by @bobeunlimited.bsky.social

‘The rise in the demand contribution since 2024 suggests inflation is no longer just a supply story. That matters for the Fed, because interest rates can cool demand-driven inflation but do little about supply shocks.’ www.apollo.com/wealth/insig...

'Anthropic's legally binding contracted obligations combined are 169x the latest annualized operating income.' roddubitsky.substack.com/p/anthropic-...

‘The truth, which Anthropic didn’t want to emphasize in the S-1, is that Q2, right at the height of tokenmaxxing was fantastic, but Q3, post tokenmaxxing and after the rise of low cost alterntive models, represented a slowing of their growth.’ garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-anthr...

‘When Anthropic is added to the index, it is likely to displace either Berkshire Hathaway or Eli Lilly, the only non-tech companies with valuations above $1 trillion, from the top 10.‘ www.nytimes.com/2026/10/26/t...

‘Corruption has become a key source of American discontent in the closing days of midterm election campaigning, with a large majority of US voters saying they are worried about graft in Donald Trump’s second administration.’ www.ft.com/content/2770...

‘American shoppers are convinced that businesses are deploying technology to charge higher prices. They worry that businesses are using artificial intelligence and other technology to quickly change prices by assessing their needs or profile.‘ www.wsj.com/business/ret...

“If you just used risk management and you looked at the data, they want to be hiking this week,” said Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist. www.wsj.com/economy/cent... by @nicktimiraos.bsky.social

“Meta is trying to get in front of Anthropic with its own equity offering and my obvious question is, Who’s next?,” said David Erickson, an adjunct associate professor at Columbia Business School. “At some point there’s going to be an oversupply.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom have agreed to buy as much as $5 billion of the common shares in aggregate. Meta intends to use the proceeds to support its investment in AI infrastructure and personal superintelligence.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

“If the AI bubble is going to burst, it’ll likely start as a credit event as neocloud and risky AI debt defaults, creating a cascade of devaluations, reduced spending and contraction (in multiples and growth).” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

“Capex itself has become a two-sided risk. Spending cuts raise questions about the durability of the investment cycle…whilst further increases raise questions about financing, execution, and the eventual returns.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘We have another possible AI-powered Jevons paradox, which I’m officially rebranding as the Infinite Work Machine. As AI becomes more ubiquitous throughout the economy, you can see it leading to more work that will arguably generate the same result.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

‘The “everything else” category of adjusted S&P 500 earnings, those not linked to the war or AI, is expected to have grown just about 4.5% last quarter, barely outstripping the 3.7% pace of inflation.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

‘One thing we learned once the DotCom bubble burst was that analysts often sought to justify extremely high share prices by ramping up growth expectations, shifting excessive EPS growth into the outer years where there is less scrutiny of their assumptions.’ www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

‘Artificial intelligence is fast becoming the largest investment in U.S. history. As the money pours in, the companies involved are resurrecting bad old habits eerily reminiscent of the shenanigans deployed in the run-up to the financial crisis.’ www.nytimes.com/2026/10/25/o...

‘While global tech stocks teeter, in China they have already crashed as lofty valuations collapse under worries about AI demand and curbs on Chinese exports.’ www.reuters.com/world/china/...

This was a fun convo with an old friend and his daughter: www.insidearbitrage.com/2026/10/the-...

‘It’s considered good form these days to wring your hands about fiscal policy but things are more complicated than that. The world’s central banks are the key enablers of bad fiscal policy and the Fed is unfortunately no exception.‘ robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-story-...

‘JP Morgan estimates that only 20% of AI capital expenditures will be funded by free cash flow in 2027, with the remaining 80% requiring external financing.’ thedailyshot.com/2026/10/26/c...

‘I wonder if this discarded confidence survey is accurately indicating that the foundation under the contemporary bull market is far less structurally sound than most perceive.’ paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/has-the-us... by @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social

#StrandedCompute

‘The growth of the 0DTE counter-trend trading flow is now so great that the net effect outweighs the impact from the option dealer re-hedging, according to UBS.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

“As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. The 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

EVERCORE DESK: “.. I’m increasingly thinking about AI Power versus Utilities as a live market gauge .. .. Power is one of the earliest, longest-dated, and least reversible steps. .. it’s the first place the market can visibly say ‘we’re not funding the next one.’”

GS DESK: “.. Great parties can lead to hangovers, and it’s fair to call the current environment the latter at least with regards to the AI complex. .. .. This week we saw AI Beneficiaries (GSTMTAIP) having its worst day vs SPXXAI since DeepSeek Monday ..”

“What the computer people don't realize, or they don't care, is we're dancing animals. You know, we love to move around. And, we're not supposed to dance at all anymore.” -Kurt Vonnegut www.cbsnews.com/news/god-ble...

‘Increasingly capable AI systems are making it possible to discover and exploit software vulnerabilities at speeds and scales that were previously unimaginable. The economic costs will likely be enormous.‘ paulkedrosky.com/the-hackenin... by @paulkedrosky.com

“Mainstream corporate America is pulling back and starting to view token spending not as a source of growth but as a cost center that weighs on margins.“ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘Hedge funds boosted their bets against the euro to the most since March 2020 as political turmoil in France rattles European markets and weighs on the currency.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘After months of hoping for a swift resolution inspiring a delayed response to price hikes, the reality is now becoming clearer that elevated input prices are likely here to stay, creating pressure for hiking cycles to lengthen ahead.’ bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/higher-for...

‘October 2026 marks the lowest number of confirmed, undisclosed SEC investigations we have ever tracked in our 26-year history.‘ www.disclosureinsight.com/since-trumps...

Writers Guild speaks out about tech platforms squashing the @alexgibneyfilm doc about Elon Musk: “A small handful of billionaires now own virtually every major media company, news outlet, social media platform and are demonstrating how this unchecked concentration threatens democratic discourse.”

A Sunday morning thought.

‘This isn’t the first time industrialists have turned to handouts. One year before the nation would collapse in the Great Depression, the world’s first billionaire gave out dimes to schoolchildren.’ www.wsj.com/economy/musk...

“The price action has been eye-watering in a lot of situations,” said Ivelina Green, founder of Pearlstone Alternative. “Into year-end, primary markets are effectively shut. And there isn’t a lot of liquidity on the way down, so that is exacerbating the panic.“ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...