Post

Jesse Felder
@jessefelder.com

‘The truth, which Anthropic didn’t want to emphasize in the S-1, is that Q2, right at the height of tokenmaxxing was fantastic, but Q3, post tokenmaxxing and after the rise of low cost alterntive models, represented a slowing of their growth.’ garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-anthr...

77 reposts242 likes

Peter Garnry, CFA
@petergarnry.gesdacapital.com

Exactly. You see it in the consumption vs subscription revenue split. They could easily add Q3 numbers by now to the S-1. The business is not more complicated than figures can be prepared in one month.

Pirazel
@pirazel.bsky.social

Tokenmaxxing was a trick they could only pull off once to blow up the numbers. Now the window to go public on these numbers is closing fast before the bad numbers of high cost and sluggish growth are coming in

Kevin Croysdale
@kcroysdale.bsky.social

Wait until companies complete their Agentic flows so that employees are not using the LLMs to solve the same issues over and over and over. Once you have better guidance in-place, problems that benefited from near-frontier models are easily solved with cheap ones.

Josh Barnes
@jgraydonbarnes.bsky.social

I feel like this means that Anthropic is fucked. 5% ARR growth since July 2026? That means they're *NEVER* going to hit the holy tipping point where their unit economics pencil.

FACTSmatter
@factsforu.bsky.social

bsky.app/profile/fact... It's not that they didn't emphasize they didn't include anything about it. They're misleading the public as their business is crashing right now cuz the prices of what they're selling are down 30% in the last month. It's a goddamn crime and the CNBC assholes say nothing

FACTSmatter@factsforu.bsky.social

Anthropic is deliberately misleading the public They said delay of prospectus was until they had Q3 numbers. But, now the prospectus is out, and there are no Q3 numbers ...and now we know why =Cash burn is increasing as sales increase Anthropic will go BK! www.axios.com/2026/10/22/a...

axios.comThe AI boom has a new complicationPrices for tokens — a measure of AI usage — have tumbled in recent months.
Ravi
@ravi711.bsky.social

They'll be required to file an amended S1 with Q3 numbers. but they also put in a blank spot to be filled in later for Oct ARR numbers which aren't required. The only reason to do this is because Oct is going to show a reacceleration.

Ravi
@ravi711.bsky.social

Anthropic is choosing to release Oct ARR which isn't required for the IPO. I think that likely means you are going to see a reacceleration in revs due to Opus 5.5 and the fact that Q3 revs took a hit due to reducing distillation by competitors.