Dave Keating

Dave Keating

@davekeating.substack.com

🇺🇸🇪🇺American by birth, European by choice Buy my book: www.TheOwnedContinent.eu Read my Substack: https://DaveKeating.Substack.com/ Watch my reporting: www.DaveKeating.net

14.7K followers408 following3.7K posts

This was always the risk with 🇪🇺President @VonDerLeyen's "associate membership" gambit. It was never real (there is no such thing and there won't be), it was branding. But people will notice when it goes missing from the Montreal summit. And now, that may look like retreat after Trump's threats.

politico.euEU wavers on ‘associate membership’ for CanadaPresented by TikTok By NICHOLAS VINOCUR with GERARDO FORTUNA and GREGORIO SORGI PRESENTED BY Send tips here | Follow us @gerardofortuna @NicholasVinocur @GabrielGavin | Listen to Playbook and view …

As I wrote last month, the surprise "associate membership" announcement in von der Leyen's State of the Union address (apparently done without consultation with EU governments or even 🇨🇦) got attention for its boldness. It's just a label. But was it wise? davekeating.substack.com/p/with-carne...

davekeating.substack.comWith Carney’s speech, Europe is importing inspirationTrump’s aggressive reaction to the idea of Canada’s “associate membership” in the EU shows exactly why a defensive partnership is needed. But will the label prove a distraction?

Just like in April's Hungarian election, Trump was defeated in Brazil yesterday. Efforts to interfere in the election did not work. In today's Substack I ask what lessons yesterday's votes have for upcoming elections in Spain and France.

davekeating.substack.comSerbians and Brazilians say no to authoritarianismMoscow and MAGA suffer setbacks in Belgrade and Brasilia as the student protest movement topples Russia-friendly strongman Aleksandar Vučić and Lula defies the odds to defeat the Bolsonaros.

This was always the folly of Rutte's PURL program, in which Europeans act as a middleman buying US weapons and sending them to Ukraine (to make up for the US not sending them aid any more). Europeans paid for these weapons. The US isn't delivering them.

kyivindependent.com'It's significant': Ukraine fears US is withholding allied-funded air defense supplies to pressure KyivU.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has yet to approve the transfer of a significant batch of Patriot interceptor missiles for Ukraine, Ukrainian officials and military officers told the Kyiv Independ...

Dave Keating reposted

This is a dangerous, vicious cycle, because the only recourse to Trump destroying norms by firing and screwing with the federal workforce is so the same to the people he put in, because you can't leave his people in there--they can't be trusted and their qualifications are suspect at best.

washingtonsun.comState Asked Foreign Service Officers Up for Promotion Whether They Voted for TrumpFederal law strictly prohibits making civil service personnel decisions on the basis of political affiliation.

"We no longer have America as an ally on climate," EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra tells the Europa Power conference in Strasbourg. It's not every day you hear such an acknowledgement from the 🇪🇺Commission.

I'm in Lyon, looking at the still-smouldering ruins of the Bellecour Pavilion - a 174-year-old landmark burned down by rioters on Saturday. People are staring at it still in shock. The atmosphere is incredibly tense and unnerving. "Lyon" has been spelled out with candles.

I'm travelling by train across France today, thinking about the dramatic and unsettling developments here over the past week. What to make of the youth protests that have broken out across Europe? Why are they happening now? And what kind of backlash could they provoke?

davekeating.substack.comIs Europe about to have an 1848 moment?It is rare for European countries to be experiencing simultaneous protest movements. And while the reasons for youth protests vary nationally, they are linked by shared anger, distrust and despair.

It is rare for Europe to have protests across many countries all at once. The reasons for these protests by young people are myriad and national, but they're clearly feeding off one another. Will they acquire an even more pan-European dimension?

It is rare for Europe to have protests across many countries all at once. The reasons for these protests by young people are myriad and national, but they're clearly feeding off one another. Will they acquire an even more pan-European dimension?

The Left's last hope? In this article for @agendapublica.es I explore how a defeat for 🇪🇸PM Sanchez next month could not only be the last nail in the coffin for the left's vanishing power in the EU. It could also spell the end of centre-right 🇪🇺President von der Leyen's governing coalition.

agendapublica.esBrussels will feel the aftershocks of a Spanish election political earthquakeFor Dave Keating, the departure of Pedro Sánchez, the last European leader to firmly defend the centre-left, could lead to the collapse of the European Union's historic centrist grand coalition and pa...

Dave Keating reposted

Trump: "I do not want to lose as your representative $90 billion for the privilege of allowing Canada to have a healthcare system and other things that they shouldn't be having"

"The Trump administration’s Western civilizational narrative is not just an apologia for empire; it is a blueprint for the reimposition of empire," writes @judah-grunstein.bsky.social. "Empire in a more rapacious than territorial form, characterised by de facto suzerainty and coercive approaches."

worldpoliticsreview.comRubio’s Vision of Western Primacy Is Just Empire by Another NameThe Trump administration’s civilizational turn will alienate potential partners and undermine America’s interests.

Dave Keating reposted

Denmark etc did not get their way. Vague language in the final text on migration. Bit odd to expect the Spanish government to criticise itself during an election campaign, especially on a weak legal point (at least under the Return Directive) on a law which Denmark is partly opted out of

Jorge Liboreiro@jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social

#EUCO latest: the draft conclusions pushed by Denmark, Italy and Poland urge countries to avoid "measures that could create incentives for illegal migration", a rebuke to Spain's regularisation of 600,000 migrants.

At concluding #EUCO presser, Macron alludes to the frugal theatrics around the budget at this summit. “We all know the choreography...I hope there will be as little drama as possible.” "We will have to go through crises and disagreements before finding agreements."

Macron says he doesn't understand why countries are opposing the Commission and Parliament's proposals for new own resources (direct EU taxation) which could lower national budget contributions.

 “The European Parliament has worked on entirely credible proposals," Macron says, citing the proposed tax on tech giants as an example. He says these own resources should be explored in order to lower national contributions, instead of any further cuts to the EU budget.

🇫🇷President Macron holds a press conference that was long delayed because of a migration discussion prolonged by the theatrics of some national leaders. He says it was a "bad debate" but the 🇪🇺migration pact is having a "good outcome".

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🇮🇹Meloni & 🇩🇰Frederiksen used the migration debate to call for EU conclusions condemning 🇪🇸PM Sanchez (though not by name) for Spain's regularisation program for illegal migrants who are working (mostly from Latin America). Their demand for condemnation was eventually rejected after a heated debate.

🇫🇷President Macron holds a press conference that was long delayed because of a migration discussion prolonged by the theatrics of some national leaders. He says it was a "bad debate" but the 🇪🇺migration pact is having a "good outcome".

"My view is that when we politicise this debate, we divide; and when we divide and fall back on national solutions, we become ineffective," says Macron. He points out that illegal crossings into the EU have fallen (by 37%) in 2026, and returns have increased (by 10%).

After an overtime #EUCO discussion, Costa & VDL are now holding their press conference. They confirm that Ukraine has asked for €70 billion in more funding for 2027, and that this was briefly discussed today.

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🇪🇺President von der Leyen is asked how she responded to 🇩🇰PM Frederiksen's request to admonish 🇪🇸PM Sanchez for his migrant regularisation policy She says she reminded leaders that migration is a national competence and the EU can't interfere, but these decisions can have knock-on effects on rest of 🇪🇺

🇪🇺President von der Leyen also confirms that she will respond positively to Franco-German letter asking the Commissiok to propose an emergency break on third countries' access to the EU market (targeting China) It "immediately" limit access to the single market "when it's in the union's interest"

After an overtime #EUCO discussion, Costa & VDL are now holding their press conference. They confirm that Ukraine has asked for €70 billion in more funding for 2027, and that this was briefly discussed today.

Costa is asked about Le Pen saying it would be a "democratic scandal" if the 2028-2034 EU budget were to be adopted before the French election in Spring 2027. Costa says there are always national elections, if they always waited for them they'd never adopt anything. MFF needs one year lead time.

This has not been a successful #EUCO summit. It was supposed to end at 2pm today, but there have been so many disagreements and delays that it's still ongoing - even though several leaders have already left. They're now discussing migration.

🇺🇦President @ZelenskyyUa speaking at 🇪🇺#EUCO press conference now. He's asked if any progress was made with 🇧🇪PM @Bart_DeWever on giving Russian frozen assets to 🇺🇦. It sounds like a no. "The main thing is that Russia can't later on access these assets"

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Zelenskyy is asked whether Trump is using him as a scapegoat because he's struggling in the midterms. He takes a long pause, gives a knowing look, and says "this is my answer". Seems he's taken the 🇪🇺leaders' advice.

🇺🇦President @ZelenskyyUa speaking at 🇪🇺#EUCO press conference now. He's asked if any progress was made with 🇧🇪PM @Bart_DeWever on giving Russian frozen assets to 🇺🇦. It sounds like a no. "The main thing is that Russia can't later on access these assets"

Zelenskyy is asked by a Ukrainian journalist if the #Starlink developments show that Ukraine should instead turn to a European company for satellite intelligence, and whether Europe has the ability. "We're working with some countries, including France, to get additional capabilities"

Zelensky is asked if Starlink is back to its previous speeds. He says not yet fully, but it's coming. Musk's sudden speed restriction (which was reportedly requested by the White House) was "a very dangerous and unpleasant surprise," he says.

reuters.comEXCLUSIVE: Order to limit Starshield for Ukraine came from inside White House, sources sayThe order to limit a satellite system used by Ukraine ​for battlefield communications and drone operations came from inside the White House, according to two US officials and a Western official briefe...