Chris Smith

Chris Smith

@cjsmith.eu

Climate scientist at IIASA. IPCC AR7 CLA. Responsive climate projections. The guy behind the fair model and radiative forcing barchart. Occasional runner and guitarist. github.com/chrisroadmap | cjsmith.eu

1.7K followers328 following137 posts

Chris Smith
@cjsmith.eu

No your eyeball is right! There's another "other_anthropogenic" not included here. This is intended to align with the categories in DAMIP. other = [ 'Ozone', 'Light absorbing particles on snow and ice', 'Stratospheric water vapour', 'Land use', ]

Chris Smith reposted

Peter Thorne
@peterthorne.bsky.social

New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.

essd.copernicus.orgHow well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?Abstract. Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit the long-term increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C relative to p...
Chris Smith
@cjsmith.eu

The FRISIA sea-level rise model description is published today and selected as a highlight paper in Geoscientific Model Development gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/... FRISIA is designed to couple with IAMs, but can also be run standalone for sea-level rise projections from emissions scenarios.

gmd.copernicus.orgFeedback-based sea level rise impact modelling for integrated assessment models with FRISIAv1.0Abstract. Global warming is expected to lead to a substantial rise in coastal sea levels by the end of the century, which imposes future impacts and adaptation challenges on the coastal zone. Capturin...
Chris Smith
@cjsmith.eu

The Frontiers for Young Minds Climate Change Volume 2, guest edited by me, @chrisd-jones.bsky.social and @leilaniamir.bsky.social, is now complete! Also collected into a nice e-book! kids.frontiersin.org/collections/... Science for kids, peer-reviewed by kids

kids.frontiersin.orgClimate Change, Volume 2Our climate refers to the different types of weather we have all around the world. Some places are hot, some are cold, some are dry and some are wet. But now, our climate is changing and it's affectin...
Chris Smith
@cjsmith.eu

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20... In parallel to experiments run by complex climate models, we evaluate the simple climate models that are used as translations of knowledge from physical science to scenario projections

egusphere.copernicus.orgReduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity ModelsAbstract. Reduced-Complexity Models (RCMs) are a critical tool for synthesising climate science knowledge and providing climate projections for a wide range of emissions scenarios. The Reduced-Complex...
Chris Smith
@cjsmith.eu

Has anybody ever looked at the IPCC AR5 scenario database and run them in a simple climate model? I'm curious to know how many would get close to 1.5°C - probably not many if the earliest net zero CO2 date is ~2060. Interesting to see how ambition has evolved over time at the low end

Chris Smith reposted

Carl Schleussner
@carlschleussner.bsky.social

Really important paper led by my @iiasa.ac.at colleague Alex Nauels www.nature.com/articles/s41... “The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏

nature.comMulti-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades - Nature Climate ChangeIt is important to understand how much long-term sea-level rise is already committed due to historical and near-term emissions. Here the authors use a modelling framework to show how decisions on glob...
Chris Smith
@cjsmith.eu

If you want to get your simple climate model picked up by IPCC AR7, see below 👇 We have 11 on our radar from the previous round of RCMIP (egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...), plus a few others we found since. Anybody we don't know about please ping me or Alex

egusphere.copernicus.orgegusphere.copernicus.org
Alex Romero Prieto@arp-climate.bsky.social

🌍📢 Calling all emulator / reduced-complexity / simple climate modelling groups! The next round of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP) is starting, and we’d love your feedback.

Chris Smith
@cjsmith.eu

We (@tim-andrews.bsky.social, Ryan Kramer and I) are leading a session around understanding radiative forcing in models at the CMIP Community Workshop in Kyoto, Japan, next March. Abstract submissions open until 13 August: wcrp-cmip.org/event/cmip20... Session ID #4

wcrp-cmip.orgCMIP Community Workshop 2026 - Coupled Model Intercomparison ProjectThe CMIP Community Workshop 2026 will bring together a growing, and increasingly diverse, community of Earth system scientists, partners, and stakeholders. It
Chris Smith
@cjsmith.eu

Including a climate module and climate damages within a process-based integrated assessment model: meet FRIDA. egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

egusphere.copernicus.orgIntroducing FRIDA v2.1: A feedback-based, fully coupled, global integrated assessment model of climate and humansAbstract. The current crop of models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce their assessment reports lack endogenous process-based representations of climate-drive...

Chris Smith reposted

Simon Evans
@drsimevans.carbonbrief.org

Please get in touch with Team @carbonbrief.org if you're in Bonn this week – @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org + @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social have just arrived

Josh Gabbatiss@joshgabbatiss.bsky.social

It's that time of year again! I'll be in Bonn covering the #SB62 UN climate talks until the end of the week with @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org Keen to hear the hot takes on climate finance, loss and damage and anything else you think is interesting

Chris Smith
@cjsmith.eu

In this Carbon Brief post we talk about the implications of not including future volcanic eruptions in climate scenarios, as described in our recent paper: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

nature.comNeglecting future sporadic volcanic eruptions underestimates climate uncertainty - Communications Earth & EnvironmentWhile volcanic forcing uncertainty is typically ignored in climate projections, it can represent up to 49% of the total climate uncertainty and systematically exceed internal variability uncertainty, ...
Carbon Brief@carbonbrief.org

NEW – Guest post: Investigating how volcanic eruptions can affect climate projections | Dr May Chim, Dr Thomas J Aubry @cjsmith.be‬ Prof Anja Schmidt Read here: buff.ly/P4ZH3OE

Chris Smith
@cjsmith.eu

I'll be giving a short talk on 1.5°C at a mini-symposium at VUB on Friday 6 June as part of an event celebrating the award of an honorary doctorate to @joerirogelj.bsky.social, see below for details and registration!

Wim Thiery@wimthiery.eu

Van harte welkom op het symposium "In gesprek met topklimaatwetenschapper Joeri Rogelj" nu vrijdag 9-12h @vubrussel.bsky.social, met keynote van @joerirogelj.bsky.social en korte lezingen van @cjsmith.be, @cohelongo.bsky.social, @harryzeko.bsky.social & mezelf. receptie. www.vub.be/nl/evenement...

vub.beIn gesprek met topklimaatwetenschapper Joeri Rogelj | 6 juni 2025Mis de keynote van Joeri Rogelj niet, die is aangevuld met sprekers uit domeinen zoals klimaatwetenschap, beleid, scenario's en rechtszaken.

Chris Smith reposted

Tim Andrews
@tim-andrews.bsky.social

Some sessions that ought to be fun & interesting: 🔷 ID4 RFMIP: Exploring radiative Forcing in models and observations to understand climate change 🔷 ID5 CERESMIP: Confronting models with observed changes in the Earth’s energy imbalance 🔷 ID15 CFMIP: Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity

CMIP ─ Coupled Model Intercomparison Project@wcrp-cmip.org

The CMIP Community Workshop 2026 will be held in Kyoto, Japan from 9-13th March 2026. The call for abstracts for CMIP26 is now open! Find out more at wcrp-cmip.org/cmip26-call-...

Chris Smith reposted

Gregory Munday
@gergmunday.bsky.social

Very cool that @carbonbrief.org @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org have covered our study, take a read here!

Carbon Brief@carbonbrief.org

NEW – ‘Significant’ risk of Amazon forest dieback if global warming overshoots 1.5C | @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org w/ comment from @gergmunday.bsky.social Nico Wunderling @davidamckay.bsky.social David Lapola @chrisd-jones.bsky.social

buff.ly‘Significant’ risk of Amazon forest dieback if global warming overshoots 1.5C - Carbon BriefEven passing 1.5C of global warming temporarily would trigger a “significant” risk of Amazon forest “dieback”, says a new study.
Chris Smith
@cjsmith.eu

The preprint for Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024 is now up for public discussion in ESSD. essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

essd.copernicus.orgIndicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influenceAbstract. In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published here https://doi.org/10.5281/zen...

Chris Smith reposted

Abigail Swann, PhD
@ecoclimatelab.bsky.social

Foundation-funded postdoc funding opportunity to work in WA state! Interested in applying to work with me on climate on land or global carbon cycle dynamics? Reach out! Info sessions in May and June, due date June 26. www.wrfseattle.org/grants/wrf-p...

wrfseattle.orgPostdoctoral Fellowships - Washington Research FoundationFellowship Details Fellowships include three years of salary support for the postdoc at an eligible research institution in Washington state. The salary for the first year is $80,000, increasing to […...
Chris Smith
@cjsmith.eu

Starting to think I might be the only person left on planet Earth who still believes that Hunga Tonga is (and continues to be) a net positive climate forcer. Should probably write a paper

Chris Smith@cjsmith.eu

This water vapour input (green) more than offset the small cooling effect from a increase in stratospheric aerosol optical depth (blue), resulting in a net volcanic radiative forcing (purple) that is above the long-term quiescent baseline value for 2022-2024.

Chris Smith reposted

Alex Romero Prieto
@arp-climate.bsky.social

Hi Bluesky! 👋 I'll get the ball rolling by sharing a paper I contributed to and has recently been published in GMD: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/.... We took a look at carbon and nitrogen data from CMIP6 climate models and found some significant mass imbalances in the reported data.

gmd.copernicus.orgInvestigating carbon and nitrogen conservation in reported CMIP6 Earth system model dataAbstract. Reliable, robust, and consistent data are essential foundations for analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks. Here, we consider the data from multiple Earth system models (ESMs) participating in t...

Chris Smith reposted

Carbon Brief
@carbonbrief.org

NEW – Guest post: How to apportion ‘net-zero carbon debt’ if global warming overshoots 1.5C | @setupelz.bsky.social @robinlamboll.bsky.social @wimthiery.bsky.social @gidden.bsky.social @cjsmith.be @shonali-p.bsky.social Read here:

buff.lyGuest post: How to apportion ‘net-zero carbon debt’ if global warming overshoots 1.5C - Carbon BriefOur findings show that some regions, such as western Europe and North America, will accrue net-zero carbon debt as soon as 2030.