Bini

#nolasky any intel on what's going on at the Yenni building in Kenner? Early voting shut down and people are being redirected to library

Blue Dog bigots are wrong about everything example #♾️

Left politics are correct, popular, and win elections.

Blue Dog bigots are wrong about everything example #♾️

Wanted to scrutinize the "biggest midterm early vote". it's correct, but does it hold up in the larger context of early voting adoption? With usual growth, about 1/7 would vote early this year. We reached that yesterday, on track to finish ~75k more early voters than the trend alone would bring.

Louisiana Early Vote: Day 6/7 - 434K votes: past the tracker's full-week goal (412K) with a day to spare - Already the biggest midterm early vote in history - Monday's 65.8K in-person vote nearly matched Saturday's 66.0K, on a weekday - Ds won the day by 2.6K and hold their overall lead by 16K

The 2019 governor's runoff (504K) is now below even the LOW end of the projection (509K). The high end matches the 2016 presidential (532K)! Caddo passed its 2019 runoff total days ago. Orleans should pass theirs today. EBR now looks short of its 59K BATON ROUGE TALK TO YOUR PEOPLE

Louisiana Early Vote: Day 6/7 - 434K votes: past the tracker's full-week goal (412K) with a day to spare - Already the biggest midterm early vote in history - Monday's 65.8K in-person vote nearly matched Saturday's 66.0K, on a weekday - Ds won the day by 2.6K and hold their overall lead by 16K

Saturday wasn't a one-off. Rs won Wed-Fri, and Ds have now won two straight days. Since Day 1's mail dump, 95% of new votes have been in-person, and Ds lead that channel by 9.5K. The D edge isn't a mail artifact. 81% of precincts are on pace for Ds, 65% for Rs

Louisiana Early Vote: SATURDAY - 364K total votes, on track for 508K-551K. We'll likely pass the 2019 governor's runoff (504K) - Ds win the day by 10.6K, erasing (and then some) all R gains since Wednesday - Black voters were 42% of Saturday's vote (now 34% overall) - Rs are now behind pace in EBR

OK one more for now: Black voter share is comparable to Obama 2012... but this is a midterm

Louisiana Early Vote: SATURDAY - 364K total votes, on track for 508K-551K. We'll likely pass the 2019 governor's runoff (504K) - Ds win the day by 10.6K, erasing (and then some) all R gains since Wednesday - Black voters were 42% of Saturday's vote (now 34% overall) - Rs are now behind pace in EBR

We're almost certainly going to pass up 2019 statewide and in the Dem strongholds. Caddo already passed it. EBR is straddling the line. To some extent, I'm not sure that stat matters when R turnout is in the gutter in Orleans (-18%) and EBR (-29%) and flat in Caddo

Louisiana Early Vote: SATURDAY - 364K total votes, on track for 508K-551K. We'll likely pass the 2019 governor's runoff (504K) - Ds win the day by 10.6K, erasing (and then some) all R gains since Wednesday - Black voters were 42% of Saturday's vote (now 34% overall) - Rs are now behind pace in EBR

Dems have passed their share of the 2022 EV and Rs keep falling - D 43.1% (Fri 42.0%, +1% over 2022) - R 39.4% (Fri 41.1%, -4% over 2022) The model expected Rs at 45% of the early vote 😂 80% of precincts are on pace for Dems, 62% for Rs

Louisiana Early Vote: SATURDAY - 364K total votes, on track for 508K-551K. We'll likely pass the 2019 governor's runoff (504K) - Ds win the day by 10.6K, erasing (and then some) all R gains since Wednesday - Black voters were 42% of Saturday's vote (now 34% overall) - Rs are now behind pace in EBR

This is the shit they're trying to kill the planet for

KdV should be relegated to the Uptown route. I don't want them stinking up Royal St. Should merge with d'Etat

Louisiana Early Vote: Day 4 of 7 - 295K votes, 78% of 2022's entire EV - Rough projection: 487K-545K, midpoint tops the 2019 governor's runoff (504K) - Friday was a dead heat: R +84 votes out of 62.7K. Looks like their turn is over. - Both parties ahead of pace: D +34%, R +14%

The surprise isn't really D strength, it's R softness vs 2022's EV: - D 42.0% (2022: 42.2%) - R 41.1% (2022: 42.9%) - Other 17% (2022: ~15%) Dems are holding their 2022 share. Rs are slipping, even though their registration gains since 2022 say they should be growing

Louisiana Early Vote: Day 4 of 7 - 295K votes, 78% of 2022's entire EV - Rough projection: 487K-545K, midpoint tops the 2019 governor's runoff (504K) - Friday was a dead heat: R +84 votes out of 62.7K. Looks like their turn is over. - Both parties ahead of pace: D +34%, R +14%

Louisiana Early Vote: Day 3 of 7 - we're at 62% of 2022’s complete EV - D 42% (+2% over expectations) - R 41% (-4% below expectations) - Black voters still 32% of EV, compared to 26% in 2022 - Both parties ahead of pace: D +33%, R +12% - Precincts on pace: 76% for D, 59% for R

Lotta questions about comparing this to 2019 turnout so I made these graphs. Very likely that we'll meet or beat it. One thing about these (very good) projections is that I don't have past daily totals, so the models never seen a Saturday bump. Betting we'll be close to the high end even past that

Louisiana Early Vote: Day 3 of 7 - we're at 62% of 2022’s complete EV - D 42% (+2% over expectations) - R 41% (-4% below expectations) - Black voters still 32% of EV, compared to 26% in 2022 - Both parties ahead of pace: D +33%, R +12% - Precincts on pace: 76% for D, 59% for R

Dem standouts vs expected pace: - Bienville D +84% - Natchitoches D +81% - Caddo: D +42% (R -8%) - St. Bernard D +43% (R -5%) Dems are only behind their pace in Pointe Coupee & Vermilion JP has both parties running hot: D +52%, R +33% Rs surging in Sabine (+76%) & Winn (+63%)