Andrew Dessler

28 Aug 2022

profile picture pupdate: strong consensus for: dog, but more professional. Introducing my new profile pic:

nature.comA bias-corrected & downscaled massive ensemble to diagnose uncertainty in climate impact projections - Scientific DataScientific Data - A bias-corrected & downscaled massive ensemble to diagnose uncertainty in climate impact projections

18h

this looks very very cool

Kevin Schwarzwald@kschwarzwald.bsky.social

Excited to share a new data descriptor that's finally out for the BCD-ME, our 1400-member ensemble of bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP6 data that samples internal variability, model uncertainty, and reanalysis "ground truth" uncertainty! www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Andrew Dessler reposted

Zeke Hausfather

@zekehausfather.com

In the rush to build data centers, companies are starting to use their own off grid gas generators. This results in much higher emissions – 60% to 80% – compared with using their local electricity grid and risks locking in longer-term fossil dependence. www.theclimatebrink....

Andrew Dessler reposted

James Dinneen

@jamesdinneen.bsky.social

My investigation for @nature.com finds a surge of open records requests from groups with ties to the energy industry targeting climate attribution researchers. They come as the field plays a growing role in lawsuits suing big emitters for climate-related damages. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

nature.comClimate scientists face deluge of public-records requests about fossil-fuel studiesA Nature investigation identified more than 30 requests since 2024 to US universities in a campaign questioning climate attribution science.

Andrew Dessler reposted

I did a quick calculation and this tank contains the explosive energy of 5 sticks of dynamite. Pressure times volume = 7e7 Pa * 0.07 m^3 = 5 megajoules (MJ) of energy. A stick of dynamite contains about 1 MJ.

Ian Boudreau@ianboudreau.com

Ah, the auto influencers have explained that this carbon fiber-wrapped ball, which sits right behind the driver's head, holds about 100kg of nitrogen pressurized to about 10,000 psi. Let me just go review the tolerances people found in their Cyber Trucks

Ian Boudreau@ianboudreau.com

koat.comHistoric and catastrophic flooding hit New MexicoSevere flooding is impacting northern New Mexico as severe weather could impact areas near Albuquerque and Santa Fe.

Of course, this is an apples-to-oranges comparison. Dynamite is much more destructive b/c it releases energy faster, producing a much stronger shock wave. But that tank holds a huge amount of energy & I wouldn't want to be next to that tank if it ruptures.

Andrew Dessler reposted

Alan Gerard

@wxmanms1.bsky.social

Story from KOAT-TV in ABQ about the northern NM flooding. Amazed this is not getting more national coverage. www.koat.com/article/new-...

Alan Gerard@wxmanms1.bsky.social

After weeks of periodic heavy rains, the San Juan River system in CO and NM is in the middle of a truly historic flood that appears to be causing catastrophic impacts to the rural Four Corners region — the word needs to get out on how bad things are: balancedweather.substack.com/p/record-cat...

balancedweather.substack.comRecord “catastrophic” flooding impacting the Four Corners regionSan Juan River at Farmington, NM cresting feet above 100+ year old record, law enforcement official describes area around Pagosa Springs, CO as “catastrophic”

eos.orgThe Economic Costs of Solar Storms - EosThough less present in the public consciousness than hurricanes and wildfires, space weather represents a real and potentially significant threat to society.

I'm sorry but I have enough things to worry about, @agu.org The Economic Costs of Solar Storms eos.org/research-spo...

this is good

Sam Forstag@samforstag.bsky.social

FORSTAG: The amount of money in our politics is a poison that is infecting every other piece of our government.

unscientific poll of my climate risk class

bloomberg.comHome Insurance Tops Property Taxes in Squeeze for US HouseholdsIn most US counties, insuring a home now costs more than the property tax, due partly to the risk of extreme weather.

students who are "not voting" are, in most cases, from out of state.

Andrew Dessler reposted

Jeff Goodell

@jeffgoodell.bsky.social

This is how the fossil fuel industry says thank you to Americans who vote for climate deniers.

has interfolio cornered the market on handling applications for academic job searches? I ask because ...

theclimatebrink.comHow not to detect warming accelerationA new paper finding significant acceleration uses an inappropriate test with high false-positive rates

On The Climate Brink, @zekehausfather.com has a great post about the problems you can run into when you go fishing for correlations. www.theclimatebrink.com/p/how-not-to...

The extremely bad statistics really hurt solar-weather correlation. If you work on solar-weather correlations today, people will side-eye you. Hurricane forecasts may be more reputable, but I'm still suspicious of the statistics underlying them.

theclimatebrink.comHow not to detect warming accelerationA new paper finding significant acceleration uses an inappropriate test with high false-positive rates

This is a long way to say to go read @zekehausfather.com's post www.theclimatebrink.com/p/how-not-to...

theclimatebrink.comHow not to detect warming accelerationA new paper finding significant acceleration uses an inappropriate test with high false-positive rates

On The Climate Brink, @zekehausfather.com has a great post about the problems you can run into when you go fishing for correlations. www.theclimatebrink.com/p/how-not-to...

If you look at enough random data, you'll find significant correlations. But that doesn't mean there's actually a meaningful connection.

My friend Tim Del Sole analyzed Bill Gray's hurricane forecast and found that it suffered from a variant of this. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

theclimatebrink.comHow not to detect warming accelerationA new paper finding significant acceleration uses an inappropriate test with high false-positive rates

On The Climate Brink, @zekehausfather.com has a great post about the problems you can run into when you go fishing for correlations. www.theclimatebrink.com/p/how-not-to...

If you just naively apply a statistical test between the time series, you conclude that it was unlikely to happen by chance. But that's not the right test. You need to include the fact that you looked at many many time series before you found one that had a statistically significant time series.

Some of these papers were just silly. This paper shows the contortions scientists went through to find a correlation: they "show a probable association with the I I-year solar cycle which can be observed only if the data are divided according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation."

theclimatebrink.comHow not to detect warming accelerationA new paper finding significant acceleration uses an inappropriate test with high false-positive rates

On The Climate Brink, @zekehausfather.com has a great post about the problems you can run into when you go fishing for correlations. www.theclimatebrink.com/p/how-not-to...

@matthewgburgess.bsky.social

I ran across this in the 1980s and 1990s. At that time people were searching for solar-weather and solar-climate connections and they would take a solar index and compare it to dozens (hundreds?) of geophysical fields until they found one that correlated.

Andrew Dessler reposted

The Bulwark

@thebulwark.com

Talarico: "We just found out that [Elon Musk] is almost single-handedly bankrolling this effort to install Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate and defeat this movement...Elon Musk wants our land. He wants our water. He wants his very own personal United States senator. He is trying to buy Texas."

Andrew Dessler reposted

Matt Burgess

Looking forward to the next @heterodoxacademy.bsky.social conversation at @unlv.edu this Friday with @andrewdessler.com. We're going to focus on adaptation optimism/pessimism, policy implications of damage uncertainty, and more. Should be fun! Details below.

theclimatebrink.comHow not to detect warming accelerationA new paper finding significant acceleration uses an inappropriate test with high false-positive rates

today was the first day of early voting in Texas and I just voted. it was very busy. I had to wait 30 minutes to vote. don't wait to vote, get it done.

Andrew Dessler reposted

Zeke Hausfather

@zekehausfather.com

While there is increasingly strong evidence that global warming is accelerating, we need to be careful about how we detect it. Unfortunately a newly published paper on the topic makes a number of mistakes in it approach, as I discuss over at The Climate Brink:

thehandbasket.co'Tommy' from viral El-Sayed video is former Sen. Hawley staffer with Christian nationalist tiesThomas Teepell is the son of a former long-time Bobby Jindal staffer who's close to Sean Feucht.

Saw this photo online. They are elevating their house for flood protection. It looks like the world's most dangerous game of Jenga.

Andrew Dessler reposted

Marisa Kabas

@marisakabas.bsky.social

This story has more than 100,000 unique views.

Marisa Kabas@marisakabas.bsky.social

SCOOP: 'Tommy' from the now-viral exchange with Abdul El-Sayed is Thomas Teepell, a former staffer for Republican Senator Josh Hawley with close ties to Christian Nationalist Sean Feucht. He's the son of a former Bobby Jindal staffer whose consultant work was instrumental in getting Hawley elected.

Andrew Dessler reposted

The Eyewall

@theeyewallwx.bsky.social

The East Coast's next storm will bring tidal flooding from Delmarva through the Outer Banks and multiple days of onshore winds this week. We discuss details, the next bout of rain in the West, and a look at an extreme weather/climate movie that Matt was a bit involved in. Below or at theeyewall.com.

theeyewall.substack.comMore coastal flooding for the Mid-Atlantic, while the West sets up for more rain. Plus, a movie?It’s been an extremely wet month in the Southwest

Andrew Dessler reposted

T. Ryan Gregory 🇨🇦

@tryangregory.bsky.social

Never mind terraforming Mars. Just stop venusifying Earth. www.scientificamerican.com/article/what...

scientificamerican.comSome scientists want to turn the Red Planet green. Should they?The CEO of Pioneer Labs, a biotech startup developing Mars-adapted microbes, is on a quest to make alien worlds nice places to live

Interesting story. Starts with this email: someone is interested on doing a podcast with me about my book. I didn't read the email carefully but responded that I was too busy to do anything this semester.

Alas, this was the last message; they stopped responding. Next one of these I get I'll see if I can get them below $75.

I looked up the payment platform they were using and it's time zone is West Africa Time. BTW, if anyone knows Beth Golay, they should tell her that someone's impersonating her. Not that there's anything she could do.

Let's see how low I could go. $75?

Yup, $75 works

As an experiment, I decided to see if I could bargain them down.

@jamestalarico.bsky.social

OK, got 'em down to $175

"Beth" responded that we could do it in January. Then they threw in that I would need to pay $310. That's when I knew it was a scam.

Andrew Dessler reposted

James Talarico

Tonight, we’re kicking off our Clear Eyes, Full Hearts Tour with some special guests from the cast of Friday Night Lights. We’ve come this far together. Now it’s time to leave it all on the field. Join us: www.mobilize.us/talaricofort...

Watching Love is Blind, Boston, and the contestants just had a long conversation in the pod about “Dunkin” (donuts). They’re one step away from talking about their last wicked pissah.

Super impressed with Sarah. She just had a monologue about how good vaccines are. Also, she smartly ditched Morrey because he was just a disaster.

Stew and Jax are like a couple from a Brett Easton Ellis novel.

Andrew Dessler reposted

Ezra Levin ❌👑

@ezralevin.bsky.social

❗❗❗Mark Zuckerberg's meta just suspended the No Kings Instagram account. I just rushed back from my local No Kings to jump on this. Bottom line, would be helpful for all pro-No Kings folks to elevate the issue and help us get the word out about No Kings today. The Nerd Reich strikes again.

Andrew Dessler reposted

Josh Sternberg

@joshsternberg.com

Meta took down the No Kings instagram; TikTok banned the Musk documentary account for supposedly violating its political posting policies. A reminder that platforms are owned by the wealthiest of people, control the means of media distribution, & put their thumbs on the democracy scale as they wish

My kid just got his Aggie ring, and he promptly left it in my office, so now I have an Aggie ring.

nytimes.comOpinion | What Happens When You Can No Longer Fight a Wildfire? (Gift Article)This year’s fast moving, virtually irrepressible events are not the seasonal burns of decades past.

You do not want to know how much this thing cost.

Andrew Dessler reposted

Dr. Merritt Rae Turetsky

@queenofpeat.bsky.social

A must read op-ed by @johnvaillant.bsky.social detailing how modern fires are burning faster and hotter, changing the future of firefighting. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/12/o...