Post

The district she is running for was basically split Trump-Harris, so this is the conventional wisdom play. It is also a misread of the 2026 electorate and exactly what her incumbent opponent is also saying.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Cait Conley, the Democrat who is running against Mike Lawler, says "right now what I see out of Washington is corruption on both sides, extremism on both sides"

114 reposts905 likes

Harris attempted to both sides. Including over Israel and Palestinians and lost both constituencies. The democratic base view this as capitulation not fighting. There’s a large contingent of never Trump Republicans driving Democratic centrisim which is damaging turnout. @jenpsaki.bsky.social

Also a massive turn-off for progressive voters. Actually, I guess you just said that! 😇 This is Gendebien's approach too (I'm in NY21). Makes me puke. Conventional wisdom can go jump in a lake.

Luckily for her, Conley’s opponent also knows that he needs to generate enthusiasm among Republicans, so he’s doing things like this.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Mike Lawler on why he's speaking at "Trumpapalooza" when Trump's popularity is at an all time low: "It's a function of doing the job"

Oh, I’ll also note that Lawler allies are running ads comparing her to AOC and Mamdani, which suggests that they have polls showing AOC and Mamdani aren’t very popular in-district — which may also be why she takes this position. But, still: misread of the electorate.

That said, I guarantee you that Trump isn’t *more* popular than Mamdani in NY-17 and it seems pretty easy to take a “she is in the same party as Mamdani” attack and turn it into a “he literally holds rallies with Trump” response.

It comes down to candidate quality and courage in the end. Democratic candidates have relied too heavily on consultants like Carville in the past whose perspective is stuck in the 20th century. Piker has a huge constituency like Rogan. He’s hated by politicians & the media, base voters love him.

Yeah, NY-17 resident here who supported one of Cait’s opponents. You’re right that she’s misreading discomfort with the DSA wing of the party for centrist, both-sides gibberish. We want strident Democrats who will take the fight to T and push back on left-wing extremism too.

I often wonder how much the messaging in this race is shaped to appeal to the large ultra-orthodox population, who constitute a major voting bloc and whose politics tend toward an atypical blend of left/right planks. It's not unique to this district, but certainly unusual nationally.

well…. her district elected a republican 2 years ago, however slimly.. that gives a fairly good read of how popular AOC affiliation would be in her election.

Also the volume of PAC advertising against Conley is a strong indicator that Republicans see this as a seat they can hold against a weak challenger. They’ve clearly identified NY-17 as one of their best bets.

This is happening in Colorado Springs (CO5). The Democratic candidate is running ads saying'both parties in Washington are bad'. I'm voting for her over the Republican but I'm not thrilled about it.

but.imbut.im

Come on, bro. One more appeal to the enlightened centrist and moderate Republican, bro. It's worked so many times, bro. It has never failed catastrophically, bro. Leftists yelling at me online are exactly the same as the government disappearing people, bro.

Her riding a historically favorable wave to win a swing district is not a vindication of her brand of Democratic politics, unless you’re willing to say the same about El-Sayed if he wins

Probably difficult to suppress Democratic turnout this year but she’s having a good crack at it with talk like this. She’ll get washed into office in November, riding the blue wave, and she’ll be washed out again in the 2030 midterms if there’s a Democratic POTUS elected in 2028.

I live in her district and have been following it closely. It is not a misread whatsoever. Anti-Zionism left-wing extremism as a major major issue amongst the Jewish community here and we make up a large percentage of the voting population. 

Gotta love the false equivalance. It can be tough deciding which is worse for some alleged brain havers. On the one side you have let the gym teacher look at your kids genitals in order to play sports, and the other side with their radical billionaires should have to pay their taxes. so hard

Misread, yeah. There’s corruption on both but republicans are way, WAY worse on it (very obviously.) dem corruption is mostly just insider trading iirc

A genuine measure of the breadth and depth of anti-Trump revulsion if Conley wins. She has no natural base, no signature issue, no political gifts and no campaign organization. Invest your time, energy and money elsewhere. And I take a backseat to no one in my loathing for Mike Lawler.

She sure understood the primary electorate.... American elections are won in the center, which is where she is. If more Democrats would get over this faith-based belief that there is a secret progressive majority in this country, they would win far more elections and we'd not be in this mess.

Her nomination is one of the strongest examples of many Dems just not getting it to the point where her winning, unless she is somehow the tipping point district for control of the House, might not even be in the Dems best long term interests. I said what I said.