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Justin
@just-be.dev

I do wonder how all this ends: tomtunguz.com/nvidia_norte.... The is, for sure, real money in the AI market. The investing behavior is insane though. Nvidia investing tons of money into their customers and *GPU-backed debt* is fucking wild.

tomtunguz.comCircular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?Nvidia's $110B vendor financing strategy mirrors Lucent's telecom bubble playbook. Analyzing customer concentration, GPU-backed debt, depreciation schedules & cash flow patterns to assess AI bubble ri...
Justin
@just-be.dev

"CoreWeave's (CRWV) aggressive debt strategy has sparked a wave of borrowing among AI startups, with companies like Fluidstack securing billions of dollars in loans using AI chips as collateral"

Dan Moore
@mooreds.com

@paulkedrosky.com is pretty smart; the referenced podcast (www.theringer.com/podcasts/pla... ) is well worth a listen. Feels like we're in the 6th or 7th inning to me. Plenty more money to be made, but the cracks are showing.

theringer.comThis Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst - The RingerIf the AI spending project blows up in the next few years, the implications for technology, the economy, and politics would be immense. Paul Kedrosky is an investor and writer. We talk about the AI ca...
Justin
@just-be.dev

This was such a good listen, thanks! I didn't really think about the fact that GPUs deprecate at such a relatively fast rate. With ~60% of the investment in new data centers being GPU acquisition AND firms using GPUs as collateral for significant amounts of debt... that seems bad.

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Justin
@just-be.dev

Another thought... given AI investment is representing ~50% of GDP growth I think it's beyond likely that this is masking an overall ailing economy. The current administration's policies are broadly detrimental to growth and without this boom driving I suspect the overall outlook is bleak.

Justin
@just-be.dev

Something that was mentioned in the podcast was how datacenter energy market pressure would likely cause a wave of NIMBYism when it comes to new datacenter placement and ultimately drive a new wave of outsourcing. I wonder what that means long term.