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🎯🎯🎯 VAPORWARE

This, of course, is not sustainable if the firms they're investing in don't turn a profit (which is likely!) but the market already knows this and just doesn't care yet

I’m not saying it is or isn’t either way, but i can imagine ways in which they recognize the revenue without fully “delivering them”. Tesla has used some kind of BS “financially delivered” standard for some time now.

Mmm, makes sense. I think that channel stuffing is the broader idea, though the term that the article uses ("bill-and-hold") seems like a very specific form where NVDA warehouses the asset after sale to the customer. I don't see much evidence that this specific "bill-and-hold" concept is being used?

I mean if it's happening on both ends at scale that's (1) almost entirely unprecedented and (2) sure to blow up very very quickly

I also heard today that some data centers are repurposing old jet engines to operate as gas turbines. They are probably even less efficient than a simple cycle turbine. The whole thing has gotten out of hand.

I cricketed someone yesterday who was saying datacenter construction needs to progress in order to meet demand by asking how much of that demand is projected.

Gimme gpu

Trivially minor nit: Wash trading is where a single party uses a FAKE counterparty to drive up the price, by basically "selling to oneself".

I'm starting to think there's a lot more GPUs flowing into china than we previously thought.

Microsoft claimed recently that it's brought on 2GW of capacity in the last 6 months, but in an analysis of every announced project since 2023, I've found barely 350MW of operational capacity came online in that time. What's going on? www.wheresyoured.at/where-are-all-the-data-centers/

FYI From the UK More than 100 UK datacentres plan to burn gas to generate electricity “There’s 100GW of datacentre projects in the queue,” said Stuart Okin, the director of cyber regulation and AI at Ofgem. www.theguardian.com/business/202...

"remaining performance obligations total [find] and are dependent on being *able* to sell gigawatts" <- Hi! Did you ever find the total?

you can't sue someone after the crash if they don't have any money. is that the reasoning?

Pfft. The data centers are in Canada Ed, you wouldn't know them. (for the impaired: this is a joke).

Did you look at the CIP for the hgperscalers? I just did and it's shooting up - seems to support your argument.

www.wired.com/story/xai-ad... Claims to have added 500MW of gas turbines since mid-March.

Microsoft brought a lot of new cloud regions and AZs online and strengthened their AI accelerator offerings in Asia, that's probably where the 4GW are

youtu.be/6lHBq_e-Iws?...

This is the first project that's appeared in my area: sgfcitizen.org/economy-grow... The developers claim it's a "small-scale" DC that will be used for "mostly research."

🙋‍♂️ can I have one

I know companies like Siemens for example have started up shell investments companies. Theirs is named Calibrant Energy. This shell takes the risk off Siemens finances. When project begins and complete Siemens recs all revenue. Then benefits through the investment shell as the asset pays back.

This is also my fear with the “pilots” at work. The low hanging fruit is getting grazed REALLY fast.