Thomas Pope

There's been an interesting debate about whether mayors could (and should) be able to provide rebates with assigned revenue. This from @jacktshaw.bsky.social is the best summary I've seen of the current legal position jackshaw.substack.com/p/can-and-sh... Some thoughts on the merits 🧵1/12

A welcome move ahead of the next SR As Stuart says, now government needs to work out what it means by prevention

Now the public spending section... Warm words for his cabinet colleagues, but mainly thanking them for sticking within v tight limits. Higher inflation will make it even tighter. Big decisions punted to the SR next year

Now Healey announces the fiscal devolution roadmap, which we knew was coming. Could be a genuinely radical change in how mayors are funded and can operate

Founder's relief - lower capital gains if you sell a company you set up - sounds a lot like a repeat of entrepreneurs' relief (renamed Business Asset Disposal Relief) Little evidence that actually supports entrepreneurial activity, and plenty of non-entrepreneurs benefits

Evidence that the Treasury had not done the hard yards to get better data to allow better targeting of energy support. Reverts to the Sunak council tax link for energy bill support -- reminder council tax valuations esp in London are VERY out of date

Healey announces duty relief for small brewers. No surprise if you've read @instituteforgovernment.org.uk minister's reflect from when he was in the Treasury in the 2000s www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/defaul...

Extra energy support targeted at council tax bands A-D (i.e. based on what your house was worth in 1990) Disappointing that we're not in a better position to target support based on household income and energy usage

Growth upgraded (slightly) this year, but down a lot next year (from 1.6% to 1%) But some higher growth in 2029 and 2030. Is that just a bounceback from a cyclical downturn or a higher productivity assumption?

First big decision - allowing headroom to fall to absorb a deteriorating forecast. This is why having a fiscal buffer is a good idea, as Healey says But it's risky to allow it to fall now, as it makes it more likely he'll be forced to act if the forecast gets worse next year

Healey promises the budget will deliver 3 things: 1. 'Breathing space' on cost of living 2. Unleashing growth 3. Tackling the big challenges (inc on energy, public services and housing) Let's see if it delivers

My latest below previews the fiscal devo roadmap. This could be a radical change in how mayors operate, and will tell us a lot about the government's broader approach to devolution My blog lays out what the roadmap should do

Tax, spending, energy bills & fiscal rules... what should John Healey do at the Budget? Here's the must-read @instituteforgovernment.org.uk verdict from @tompope.bsky.social @drbenpaxton.bsky.social @danhaile.bsky.social @rosahodgkin.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/john...

It's brilliant to have more transparency on progress against efficiencies and savings, set out in this '2025-26 departmental efficiency and savings performance' doc. But, I think government could do more to enhance the credibility of these figures assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ad8c4...

NEW: Starmer's public service inheritance was bleak. His govt made some progress improving services. But also launched a messy set of reforms Burnham has set out a positive vision but has a mountain to climb to deliver all his promises 🧵 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

💯💯💯(you get the idea) this makes so much sense from @timharford.ft.com - though I fear I can confidently predict that the Chancellor will do none of this (one example.. we don't levy VAT on children's shoes or clothes -- at least right-sized ones -- how about just making that a cash benefit)?

Party conference season saw all political parties duck the big questions about the economy. @tompope.bsky.social reviews the tax and spend promises made at the conferences – and is left underwhelmed by a failure to confront the UK’s fiscal reality www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/no-p...

EVENT | How can Andy Burnham deliver on Labour’s promise to improve public services? 📆 Wednesday 21 October, 12:30–13:30 Join us as our expert panel presents the key findings of the IfG’s annual Public Services Performance Tracker. www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/andy-b...

NEW: Plans to reduce EHCPs look optimistic and Burnham's public service reforms still need a plan for schools In our first IfG Performance Tracker chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, we look at how the government is performing on its schools agenda [1/9]

The prime minister is right to reform the pensions triple lock. But @tompope.bsky.social says Andy Burnham will need to be as bold at the budget if he is to fund new spending commitments www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...

My latest for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk applauds Andy Burnham for tackling the absurdity of the triple lock. He will need to show more of the same boldness at the budget and beyond to properly fund his social care reform and other priorities www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...

The Treasury underestimated the impact of the triple lock was that they did not anticipate the seesaw between inflation and earnings. That is what has led to the big rise in spending and the pension growing well ahead of earnings. There are proposals around to ensure it grows with earnings.

NEW IfG report out today on how government should approach reforming health and disability benefits The big takeaway: the system needs to better match people’s needs to the right support - through assessment reform, political leadership and more... www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

My latest for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk is a reflection on what No.10 North and devo might mean for policy eco-systems outside London (and specifically in Manchester). Reflections based on my 4 years living in Manchester working for a think tank instituteforgov.substack.com/p/on-no10-no...

Burnham and Healey have finally acknowledged the scale of the fiscal challenge. Now they need a budget that meets that challenge. It won't be easy, but the timid alternative is worse. My latest for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk . www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...

If the PM and chancellor are (finally) alive to the challenges facing them, then they must deliver a budget that meets them head on. This means presenting a coherent strategy for fiscal policy for the rest of this parliament and beyond www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...

Burnham and Healey must avoid the budget mistakes of Starmer and Reeves A precarious fiscal inheritance is not a surprise. The chancellor should take difficult decisions at the budget rather than ducking tough choices. New from @tompope.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...

LABOUR PARTY CONFERENCE 2026 | How can Labour build an affordable welfare system that supports sick and disabled people? Join us in Liverpool on Monday 28 September at 12:00 with @meghillier.bsky.social, Alan Milburn, @drbenpaxton.bsky.social, @katesummers.bsky.social and @tompope.bsky.social

Burnham and Healey have finally acknowledged the scale of the fiscal challenge. Now they need a budget that meets that challenge. It won't be easy, but the timid alternative is worse. My latest for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk . www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...

Interesting piece from @dan-goss.bsky.social for @demos-uk.bsky.social on the need for a DOGE for tax .... www.arguably.uk/p/why-burnha...

How can the PM make his devolution agenda succeed? 📺🎧 Watch or listen as @lukeraikes.bsky.social @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social @tompope.bsky.social @drhannahwhite.bsky.social discuss Andy Burnham's plans to lead the “biggest rebalancing of power” www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/andy-b...

Mayors in England are set to get powers to impose tourist taxes. Last year @tompope.bsky.social and @jillongovt.bsky.social argued that Angela Rayner was right to call for mayors to levy tourist taxes, and the Treasury is guilty of control freakery www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rach...

New from me and @jillongovt.bsky.social for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk on how Healey should approach tax in his crucial Autumn budget (a subject he was quiet on in his speech today) Key point: set out a strategy and embrace reform. www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

It's not too late to sign up for this event tomorrow lunch. In person in Manchester if you're there (or online). How Burnham can make his devolution agenda succeed? With @drhannahwhite.bsky.social @lukeraikes.bsky.social @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social

EVENT | Andy Burnham, Manchester and No.10 North: How can the PM make his devolution agenda succeed? 📅 Tuesday 8 Sept, 12:30 Join @tompope.bsky.social @lukeraikes.bsky.social @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social @drhannahwhite.bsky.social in Manchester www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/andy-b...

Healey and Haigh have asked ministers how they will use procurement as a "strategic lever to deliver innovation and growth in every postcode" (as per @lucyfisher.ft.com). New comment from me on some of the answers departments should give www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/andy...

Just looking through @instituteforgovernment.org.uk #MInistersReflect interview with John Healey and instructive that this is what he picks as his big achievement in govt www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/defaul...