Tim Copper

Tim Copper

@timcopper.bsky.social

| News | Statistics | Analysis | Geopolitics | …and a little baseball I am not Nate Silver, but I make fun of him.

109 followers107 following799 posts

The issue for Musk's companies is that he has aligned himself so deep with Trump, it will be impossible for any subsequent Democrat-led government to work with either Tesla or SpaceX on any government contracts. The huge majority of SpaceX contracts are with the government, from NASA or the DOD.

When Elon Musk says he feels Democrats are an existential threat to the country and humanity, what he is actually feeling is that Democrats are an existential threat to his companies and thus fortune. It would be politically insane for any Democrat in the future to work with SpaceX or Tesla.

What we are seeing now is a shift in the Democratic Party similar in fervor to the rise of the Tea Party in 2010. Back then the GOP base felt lost and betrayed after the disaster GW Bush wrought with the Iraq War and Great Depression. It led to the reform of the party which culminated led to MAGA.

nbcnews.comDemocratic Party hits new polling low, while its voters want to fight Trump harderUnlike in Trump’s first term, Democratic voters say 2-to-1 they want party leaders to fight rather than compromise, even at the risk of not getting things done, per the NBC News poll.

The Tea Party saw the gradual purge replacement of establishment GOP congress members (Reaganites) with the overtly racist and generally wackjob MAGA conservatives that are in Congress today. Today we are beginning to see calls to purge of neoliberal Dems (Clintonites) that will reshape the party.

This is a big issue with furthering both progressive views and spreading truth over lies. According to a study in 2023, only 22% of Americans pay for newspaper outlets. Consider that that number is probably lower today as affordability has decreased significantly in the past 2 years.

inma.orgNew data: How many consumers are willing to pay for online news?Research from Oxford’s Reuters Institute shows news publishers have the opportunity to triple today’s digital subscriptions.
Aerzuki✨@aerzuki.bsky.social

If we want an educated American public these paywalls for factual reporting need to go. The propaganda that is radicalizing the right is not gated. Put up ads I don’t care. But make the information accessible.

I just had a brief stroll over at X and holy shit. The misinformation and propaganda is rampant. It’s like if Fox News and RT had a social platform. More disturbing still are the replies to posts. It’s a cacophony of MAGAtards, bots, AI slop and e-girl porn.

It sure looks like the tempo of the modern economy is about to reach a significant downturn. In 2023, the US was the only economy in the world to achieve a soft landing and avoid a recession. Economic downturns are part of the ebb and flow of capitalism, but countries can mitigate them if prepared.

It is likely that we were due for a slight downturn regardless, but Trump is doing everything he can to exacerbate the issues, with the fallout being likely orders of magnitude worse. In theory, a free market thrives in predictable environments and level playing fields. Trump is providing neither.

The daily lives of most Americans revolve around having a boss and doing exactly what the are told to do. The whole corporate hierarchy is built on authority and unilateralism. No surprise that many Americans are comfortable with authoritarians in government. It's how life is in the private sector.

“If the leader [boss] is authoritarian, this could potentially create vicious cycles where the leader continues to promote their false beliefs, and followers continue to agree with them, but because most followers wouldn’t want to disagree with their leader, this may create pluralistic ignorance.”

psypost.orgEmployees under authoritarian leaders are more likely to agree with misinformation, study findsA study published in Scientific Reports has found that individuals with authoritarian bosses are more likely to agree with fake news, suggesting that leadership styles can influence perceptions of mis...

We live in a corporate culture that cherishes strong leaders that have an iron grip over their corporate workforce. Think the Steve Jobs of the world, how they are idolized and looked up to. A lot of it has to do with charisma, power and the ability to exercise it.

It is widely understood that most of the public will now swallow the narrative that a coming recession would be on Biden. Americans always, always blame the party in power, specially on economy. They even put some blame on Obama for the 2008 recession, which started 6 months before he took office.

the-independent.comMaria Bartiromo says a ‘recession’ is coming — but ‘it would be Biden’s recession’‘We’ll see if Joe Biden’s recession shows up,’ Maria Bartiromo declared on Friday morning

Of course, that won’t stop Trump and MAGA from adopting this strategy, as Trump’s steady low 40s approval rating proves. They are content with that rating as long as it doesn’t dip below 40. But things work until they don’t.

There is a strong chance Trump’s numbers remain like this for the next four years. US satisfaction might actually go below 30% if the economy continues suffering from inflation woes. Possible modest spike around the LA Olympics 2028, but not much given that he will probably politicize the event.

The fucking around is over. The finding out is in full effect. “Jennifer Piggott proudly hung a Trump campaign flag outside her one-story home during the November election race. Now, after she was abruptly fired from her civil service job, her days of supporting the president are over.”

reuters.comDOGE job cuts shake Trump-voting West Virginia townJennifer Piggott proudly hung a red-and-blue Trump campaign flag outside her one-story home during the November election race. Now, after she was abruptly fired from her civil service job, her days of supporting the president are over.

"Nobody that I've talked to understood the devastation that having this administration in office would do to our lives," Piggott, 47, told Reuters. "As much as I think that President Trump is doing wonderful things for the country in some regards, I don't understand this at all," she said.

According to a report, Elon Musk and Little Marco had a heated exchange in the Oval, with Trump watching. Trump took Rubio's side, saying that Dept. Secretaries should handle their personnel layoffs, not Musk. Musk shot back at Trump, saying that this is how he runs his billion dollar companies.

the-independent.comMarco Rubio unleashes his fury on Elon Musk in heated cabinet meeting, report saysTrump silently watched much of the exchange between his Secretary of State and DOGE leader, the report says

My prediciton is that this is going to lead to the inevitable break up between Trump and Musk, just like it happens with everyone who flies too close to sun. Both men don't like being told "no" and eventually Musk will depart, frustrated that he doesn't have unilateral authority.

Don’t get me wrong, I fully hope Starship becomes a resounding success, mainly to maintain US dominance in space. But I can’t help but feel that some of the magic has been lost and the excitement has been dulled.

Tesla shares have tumbled 40% and have now lost 87% of their post-election boom, signaling that it was all hype a MAGA hype bubble. Shares of the company could continue to go down past correction territory, given how sales have slumped, specially in Europe.

cnn.comWall Street is turning its back on Elon Musk | CNN BusinessLiberals and government employees aren’t the only people angry with Elon Musk. Tesla’s plunging share price means many investors are angry, too.

Tesla sales in Europe year over year as of today: 59% down in Germany. 63% down in France. 75% down in Spain. 12% down in UK. 38% down in Norway. Norway is noteworthy because the country has more electric vehicles than combustion vehicles. In contrast, China's BYD sales are up a remarkable 187%.

The majority of the country opposes Trump's tariffs against Mexico and Canada. MAGAs strongly support the tariffs, even if it results in higher prices; evidence of his voters being cult-like, going along with anything he says. Imagine how they would feel if it had been Harris imposing the tariffs?

22% of the country believes the costs of living are going in the wrong direction. Historically, these type of numbers would doom the party in power during midterms. However, the map for 2026 isn’t favorable towards Democrats, with most GOP midterm seats being up in deep red states.

ipsos.comThree in five Americans say the cost of living is going in the wrong directionAbout half say the country generally is off on the wrong track, Reuters/Ipsos polling finds

While we do not have surveys on the recently announced VA cuts, the majority of those surveyed this week do not support the way the way other DOGE cuts have been handled, with only 44% in favor. 40% approve of cuts to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. 32% support Department of Edu. cuts.

The Supreme Court approval rating remains underwater by 5 points. It saw a brief moment of positive net positive approval in 2023, but has otherwise been in the negative ever since overturning Roe v Wade. Currently, all three branches of government have negative approval ratings.

"Engagement in the U.S. fell to its lowest level in a decade in 2024, with only 31% of employees engaged." One could argue that many in the workforce feel disillusioned from living in an environment of constant mass layoffs and an employer attitude that their jobs will be soon be taken over by AI.

gallup.comU.S. Employee Engagement Sinks to 10-Year LowSince last year, 3.2 million fewer employees felt enthusiastic about and involved in their work, matching a figure not seen in the U.S. since 2014.

He keeps playing this game. There is no way GM and Ford could just "move" Canadian and Mexico part manufacturers to the US in one month, which is Trump's vision here. And even if they could, the costs of making some parts in the US would drive up prices either way.

reuters.comTrump will delay some auto tariffs after Detroit Three pushPresident Donald Trump agreed to delay tariffs for one month on some vehicles built in North America after a call with the CEOs of General Motors and Ford and the chair of Stellantis, the White House said Wednesday.

Starmer is emerging as the new leader of the free world, after Trump’s swift abdication in the face of Putin. The UK was one of the first western countries to take a sample taste of isolationism, leading to Brexit. This in turn led to the left sweeping victories last year, putting Starmer as PM.