The Progress Report

theprogressreport.co.nzThe Progress ReportThe Progress Report.

25 Nov 2024

Welcome to the BlueSky home of The Progress Report - a repository of tools and data for anyone interested in New Zealand politics. Check us out at theprogressreport.co.nz #nzpol

adstransparency.google.comadstransparency.google.com

The Victorian Liberals continue to amaze with their lack of sophistication. They're running this anti-Labor ad in Kew and Hawthorn where their main opponents are Teal independents. #springst adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/A...

theprogressreport.co.nzMMP Seat Calculator - The Progress ReportUse this calculator to simulate the result of a New Zealand MMP election.

I've updated the NZ First party list in The Progress Report database, so when you're using the MMP or caucus calculators you can see exactly who they'd get into Parliament. #nzpol theprogressreport.co.nz/mmp-calculat...

nzherald.co.nzNational is losing the election. Luxon's debate did little to change thatOPINION: National is sliding in the polls and performing poorly.

Not the headline National will have been hoping for. #nzpol www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/...

theprogressreport.co.nzMMP Seat Calculator - The Progress ReportUse this calculator to simulate the result of a New Zealand MMP election.

New RNZ-Reid Research poll up on The Progress Report if you want to calculate who would get in on those numbers. theprogressreport.co.nz/mmp-calculat... #nzpol

The Progress Report reposted

Julie Fairey (she/her)

@juliefairey.bsky.social

Replying to @theprogressreport.co.nz

Main reason for changing voting method was actually the insecurity of postal. As shown by proven electoral fraud in Papatoetoe that resulted in a do over, and currently alleged & under investigation in Manurewa too. I hope that booth will increase turnout too, but integrity was the winner today.

rnz.co.nzAuckland Council's governing body votes to move to in-person booth voting in 2028Auckland Council's governing body has voted to move to in-person booth voting for the next local elections in 2028.

Auckland Council has voted to bring back booth voting in 2028 to lift turnout. 2025 turnout was 29%, the lowest since the supercity began. But the international evidence says the voting method is a sideshow. The real lever is compulsory voting. 🧵 #nzpol

RNZ News Feeds@rnzrss.bsky.social

Auckland Council's governing body votes to move to in-person booth voting in 2028

abc.net.auWest Australians face compulsory council election voting amid low turnoutVoting in council elections could become mandatory in Western Australia if the turnout for this weekend's poll continues to plummet, the local government minister warns.

Across the Tasman: councils in NSW, where voting is compulsory, get 80%+ turnout. In WA, where it's voluntary, turnout is around 30%, and WA's minister is now looking at making it compulsory. www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-18/compulsory-voting-flagged-for-wa-local-government-election/105901804

theprogressreport.co.nzBooths won't fix Auckland's turnout problem. Compulsory voting would. - The Progress Report

Booth voting will cost Auckland $31–40m, compared with about $16m for postal, and the evidence that it lifts turnout is thin. If we care about turnout, the conversation needs to be in Parliament, not the council chamber. theprogressreport.co.nz/post/435/

RNZ News Feeds@rnzrss.bsky.social

Auckland Council's governing body votes to move to in-person booth voting in 2028

vrt.be5 takeaways from Sunday’s local elections | VRT NWS: newsAcross the country people went to the polls yesterday to elect new local and provincial councils. These were the first elections in Flanders without any mandatory attendance at polling stations: peopl...

Exhibit B: Flanders did the reverse. It scrapped compulsory local voting in 2024 and turnout fell from 92% to 63%. In the big cities, 4 in 10 stayed home, and young people dropped off most. www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2024/10/14/5-takeaways-from-sundays-local-elections/

tinyurl.comIs compulsory voting a solution to low and declining turnout? Cross-national evidence since 1945 | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge CoreIs compulsory voting a solution to low and declining turnout? Cross-national evidence since 1945 - Volume 12 Issue 1

It's not just two cases. A study of 1,400+ elections in 116 countries found enforced compulsory voting lifts turnout by 15–18 points on average, and up to 27 points where fines are actually collected. tinyurl.com/ycpt2nyu

RNZ News Feeds@rnzrss.bsky.social

Auckland Council's governing body votes to move to in-person booth voting in 2028

en.wikipedia.org2022 Tasmanian local elections - Wikipedia

Exhibit A: Tasmania. Council elections stayed postal but became compulsory in 2022. Turnout went from about 59% to 85%, up 26 points, with the same postal ballot. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ta...

Obviously the Māori electorates are very different to the general electorates, but I feel the fear of overhangs may be overblown. It's looking more and more like Labour are going to pick up a big haul of electorates, likely including many National-held ones no one is looking at. #nzpol

teaonews.co.nzWhakaata Māori-Curia poll reveals major shift in Te Tai Tonga raceA Te Tai Tonga poll puts Labour ahead, while Tākuta Ferris faces mixed approval ratings and voters prioritise honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi.

Full Te Tai Tonga poll results here: www.teaonews.co.nz/2026/09/29/w...

The Progress Report reposted

henry cooke

@henrycooke.bsky.social

Labour won campaign launch day with some pretty simple political wisdom: - Don’t hire a room you can’t fill - Use your time in the spotlight to offer voters something My piece on yday: www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361...

thepost.co.nzLabour outshines National in campaign launch battle with high-energy eventANALYSIS: Labour won in a walk by over-stuffing a smaller room than National’s.

Big (and often requested!) new feature for The Progress Report has just dropped, you can now automatically estimate which seats will change hands in the MMP Calculator! theprogressreport.co.nz/mmp-calculat... #nzpol

It's pretty complex - fingers crossed there are no bugs, but please let me know if anything seems off. As always, if you disagree with any of the electorate predictions you can always override the electorate outcomes yourself.

Oh and one last thing: I've also uploaded today's TVNZ-Verian poll so you can play around with those results!

Some big caveats with this: it just applies a scaled uniform swing to each electorate result, but only for Labour/National contests. Seats that ACT/Green won and all the Māori seats are excluded as party vote result just isn't a good enough predictor.

Jessica Rowe, National's new candidate for Kaipara ki Mahurangai, has launched a large & reasonably sophisticated social media paid ad campaign in the last 24 hours. She currently has 11 ads live, which appear to be targeting different parts of the electorate. www.facebook.com/ads/library/... #nzpol

facebook.comfacebook.com

theprogressreport.co.nzNZ Political Ad Tracker - The Progress ReportTrack and analyse New Zealand political advertising spend across Meta and Google platforms with interactive filters for parties, advertisers, platforms, and electorates.

I found this via The Progress Report Ad Tracker, you can take a look here: theprogressreport.co.nz/ad-tracker/

theprogressreport.co.nzJessica Rowe - The Progress ReportJessica Rowe is a candidate in New Zealand's 2026 general election. See their party, electorate, social media links, and recent news coverage.

And you can also search the site to find any candidate, and if they're running Meta or Google ads, click through to see them, eg: theprogressreport.co.nz/candidates/1...

Please enjoy this statement and questionnaire for a candidate for the upcoming Bendigo City Council By-election.

voteauckland.co.nzvoteauckland.co.nz

It looks like Ali Dahche, ACT's candidate for Botany in the coming election, still hasn't filed his expense and donations return for his unsuccessful council campaign last year voteauckland.co.nz/en/past-loca... #nzpol

If you want to have a look at Jordan Williams' email to the Taxpayer's Union list without subscribing, I have a copy here: theprogressreport.co.nz/emails/5487/ #nzpol #dirtywork

theprogressreport.co.nzNZ Political Email Archive - The Progress ReportExplore political newsletters from New Zealand parties. Updated automatically and expanding historically.

And if you want to keep an eye on every email they put out to their list, bookmark this: theprogressreport.co.nz/emails/?part...

The Progress Report reposted

Sascha Stronach🏳️‍⚧️, The Sunforge out now

@understatesmen.bsky.social

rnz.co.nzLabour proposes splitting Foodstuffs and Woolworths from their wholesale armsLabour would force Foodstuffs and Woolworths to run their wholesale operations independently from their retail stores, if elected in November.

okay this is actually huge. I've complained a lot about Labour being limp, so I think it's important to pump them up when they're actually making shit happen www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...

thepost.co.nzNational wants screen use ban in early childhood education, limit in primary schoolErica Stanford is also keen to introduce a school readiness check in ECE.

20 Sept

While it rolls out lines about iPads, National's actual record is scrapping the 20 hours free ECE for two-year-olds it had already promised, cutting support funding by nearly 40%, and lifting the core subsidy just 2% in a year inflation ran at 4. #nzpol www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361...

20 Sept

National had three years to build a stronger start for our youngest learners: instead it cut funding, dropped its own commitments, and let standards slide. And now wants credit for a policy about iPads.

New feature for The Progress Report: campaign finances! I've now got donation and expenses data for the 2023 and 2020 general elections and will gradually be backfilling with older and local elections. #nzpol

If you click on See Full Results for a contest where I've got all the donations and expenses in, you can now see a detailed breakdown of them.

Including a break down of spend per vote!

14 Sept

I've uploaded the latest The Post/Freshwater Strategy post to The Progress Report, so you can use the MMP Calculator to figure out exactly who would get into Parliament on these numbers. theprogressreport.co.nz/mmp-calculat... #nzpol

13 Sept

I've updated the ACT Party list in The Progress Report, so you can see who will get into Parliament via my MMP Calculator: theprogressreport.co.nz/mmp-calculat... #nzpol

thepost.co.nzWinter Energy Payments removed from 15k pensioners in rushed law blunderThousands of pensioners and veterans lost their Winter Energy Payment this winter after an error in a law passed under urgency last year, The Post can reveal today.

The Progress Report reposted

henry cooke

@henrycooke.bsky.social

17 Aug

NEW: 15k pensioners had their winter energy payment wrongly suspended this winter thanks to an error in a bill rushed through the House under urgency last year. www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361...

14 Aug

I've uploaded the latest Talbot Mills poll, so you can use my MMP Calculator to see exactly who would get into Parliament on those numbers. #nzpol theprogressreport.co.nz/mmp-calculat...

thepost.co.nzElection 2026: Another poll puts Opportunity in kingmaker positionThe poll obtained by The Post from Anacta/Talbot Mills, had Opportunity on 5.2%, crossing the threshold to get into the house.

14 Aug

Details from The Post: www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361...

12 Aug

Well that was fun. So when's the next National Party Leadership confidence vote?

11 Aug

FWIW the highest I've seen Erica Stanford in a preferred PM poll was 1.4% in Reid Research's March 2026 poll, has been trending down since then. #nzpol theprogressreport.co.nz/pm-poll-grap...

11 Aug

I stand by my statement.

The Progress Report reposted

laragreaves.bsky.social

@laragreaves.bsky.social

7 Aug

We made an app! There is fairly widespread concern that turnout and enrolment will be low this election, so we made an app to help make enrolment and turnout data more accessible for communities. All data are drawn from the NZ Electoral Commission's website. turnout.inzight.co.nz

Just did the whichparty.nz quiz - got "Social Democrat", 90% Labour Party which I think is probably pretty spot on. Cool site but only thing I don't like is they don't disclose who is behind it or if anything is being done with the data they're collecting.

I've uploaded the full Opportunity Party (formerly TOP) 2026 party list to The Progress Report, so you can see who they will get into Parliament should they cross the 5% threshold or win an electorate. Explore for yourself with my MMP Calculator here: theprogressreport.co.nz/mmp-calculat... #nzpol

They've also dropped two candidates entirely: Kent Duston (Epsom) and Mathew Phillips (Taieri). I hope neither are for any unfortunate personal circumstances.

Lastly, I'm genuinely surprised they're not active here on BlueSky. I'd imagine the audience here might be at least somewhat receptive to their message.

In doing so I noticed a few things. Firstly, they've got two electorate candidates who are not on their party list for some reason. They are Simon DellaBarca (Whangārei) and Cindie Uddstrom (West Coast-Tasman).

22 July

Where will Stuart Nash bounce to next? NewZeal?

18 July

Quick update to The Progress Report - I've added major historical events (elections, changes of major party leaders etc) to my polling graphs, hopefully this additional context makes them even more useful. #nzpol

18 July

You can take a look for yourself, here: theprogressreport.co.nz/poll-graph/