Tim Welch

Tim Welch

@tfwelch.com

urban planner, educator, transport nerd, data geek, dad

2.3K followers685 following1.9K posts

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We're on a mission to map and catalog every tree in New Zealand, creating a complete digital record of its entire life. ALTO, the Aotearoa Long-term Tree Observatory, is over 6.2 millions trees strong and growing! Check out the Auckland release: alto.tfwelch.com

I’m speaking at Leafy Lab on Wednesday 11 November at the Horse & Trap in Mt Eden. Tree by Tree: what aerial surveys tell us about Auckland’s trees, where the data still has gaps, and how a photo and a tape measure can help fill them. Tickets on Humanitix: events.humanitix.com/leafylab11nov

I guess I misinterpreted “bike to school day.” Oh well. I had a lovely time cycling with my kid’s bike…

Finally got to ride the new Devonport hybrid-electric ferry! I kept thinking something was wrong because it was so quiet, we never got the bone rattling revving diesel engines. But the unexpected bonus was the massive windows! I couldn’t even capture the whole window in one photo. Love it!

Also appreciate the spacious interior bike parking area and much wider gangway. I think I’ll finally be able to bring my cargo bike on the ferry without stressing about how I’m going to get it on and off.

Nobody send me another email. I want to keep this round number! And also, there will be a long queue to get to your email...

Never a dull moment when you‘re a public transport user! Bayswater ferry I was on seems to have run aground. They got it moving again and hustled us off the boat. Hasn‘t sunk (yet) so that’s good. But definetly a first for me!

Sometimes you see something cool, and you want it for yourself. Inspired by Anthony Castrio's nyc-cartogram, I made an Auckland version: drop a pin and the city is redrawn by public-transport travel time instead of distance, with a couple more modes and a few extra features. warp.tfwelch.com

Tim Welch reposted

The council should not be jeopardising millions of dollars of government funding on the basis of such a flawed review. This review set out to kill investment in our public spaces, and it's tried to achieve that by fudging the numbers www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/3610...

thepost.co.nzWellington Green councillor claims $189m error in Golden Mile review“The council should not be jeopardising millions of dollars of government funding on the basis of such a flawed review,” says councillor Geordie Rogers.

Tim Welch reposted

An infuriating analysis from @tfwelch.com of how the Budget reflects transport priorities. 3/4 of new capital spending to roading, and most of that to *one road*. Zero new investment in walking and cycling. Fuel excise relief signalled, but not PT fare relief. theconversation.com/as-global-fu...

theconversation.comAs global fuel risk rises, NZ Budget 2026 puts roads first – againBudget 2026 increases road spending – while offering limited support for public transport, emissions cuts and climate resilience.

I frequently read OIA requests and responses (related to transport and infrastructure) and see all kinds of things, but this (unrelated) one made me laugh. And the genuine response is just as good. "Why did someone look at my LinkedIn?" Gotta love public records!

$15b in weather losses over the past decade. Moa Point dumped 70m litres of raw sewage into Wellington Harbour. Groundwater contamination is rising. Half our rivers are unsafe to swim. Budget 2026 drops water spend from $127m (2026) → $35m (2027) → $5m/yr (2028–30). Make it make sense.

We're in the midst of the worst oil crisis in history and the government's new budget is dedicating $1.8 billion to a single highway while taking $2.5m from public transport bus decarbonisation to fund underground utility maintenance.

When the government releases its budget later today and undoubtedly puts more money towards roads while putting less money into public transport and no money into cycling or walking, remember that driving is the only mode of transportation that is both currently and historically falling in Auckland.

Tim Welch reposted

“In our biggest cities... if we can encourage people to use public transport more, that will reduce pressure on fuel demand that can be used for people who don't have public transport options available." Featuring our own Matt Lowrie (and wise words from @tfwelch.com): www.rnz.co.nz/news/environ...

rnz.co.nzAuckland bus passengers hit record high as fuel crisis bitesOne global crisis killed off public transport use in Auckland. Another has brought it roaring back. The question now is: what next?

I don’t accept that sweeping away our most vulnerable people for the comfort of those that don’t want to see our society’s inequities is legitimate policy. And neither should you. My latest piece for Newsroom: newsroom.co.nz/2026/05/25/m... #waronthepoor

newsroom.co.nzMove-on orders punish poverty while we defund all the ways out of itComment: Begging and rough sleeping aren’t crimes of disorder. They’re symptoms of an under-resourced, under-performing security net.

I’ve been doing it for 5 years now, but getting to work on a bike and ferry is still such an unbelievably amazing privilege. So much better than driving!

You’d think a 20% rise in cycling trips from April 2025 would be headline news. 309,197 cycle trips in April, 1.30 million YTD, and 3.48 million over the past 12 months. Amid surging fuel prices, Aucklanders are finding cheaper, healthier ways to get around. More data at: cycleway.tfwelch.com

A decision on Auckland’s next Waitematā Harbour crossing is expected (maybe) next month. Worth remembering: bridge traffic still hasn’t returned to its 2018 peak, and 50% of commuters now cross the harbour by bus. So why is the current process focused on more road capacity? Move people, not cars.

Most transport maps show where infrastructure is. I wanted to show what that infrastructure actually lets people reach. I’ve been building the Auckland Transport Access Atlas: an interactive map of car dependency, accessibility, equity, and planner priorities across Auckland. ataa.tfwelch.com

Technical note: the atlas uses H3 r9 cells, OSM network routing, AT GTFS timetables, and E2SFCA accessibility modelling. That means it estimates effective access to jobs, schools, shops, health care, etc., not just nearby POIs. Built from free public data. Reproducible code coming soon.

It will be interesting to see where fuel prices go in the coming weeks and how closely/quickly they track crude prices. In MBIE's latest fuel stock update, on-shore diesel stock slipped below 20 days. Worth noting: retail price data is 11 days old, and fuel stock data is 6 days old.

My kids were not thrilled at school drop off this morning when the cargo bike odometer hit this number right as we parked. They suggested I should walk home so they could see the rollover to 3k after school.

Every effective tool for reducing fuel demand right now (free PT, cycling, EVs, lower speed limits) is a policy the NZ coalition government has spent two years dismantling. My new piece in The Conversation on why they've gone quiet and how they get out of it. theconversation.com/the-governme...

theconversation.comThe government has boxed itself in over fuel saving strategies – but there is a way outPromoting fuel saving measures as vital to energy security would help frame the oil shock as a technical problem to be solved, not a political issue to be fought.

MBIE’s national retail fuel series was basically flat through Jan and most of Feb. Then, from 27 Feb to 27 Mar 2026, diesel rose about $1.42/L, regular petrol about 82c/L, and premium 95 about 85c/L. This is not just a fuel-price story. It is a transport-policy story.

People rushing to drop $50k on a new EV and commit to years of payments, insurance, registration, WOF, etc. I'm trying to decide whether to replace the $7 kickstand feet on my "EV" or wait another month. Cargo e-bikes would probably work for a lot more people than you'd think.

On Monday, MBIE said we have 54 days of diesel cover. But only 22 days are actually on shore. The rest is on water, most outside the "EEZ", weeks away. The headline number blends fuel that's here with fuel that isn't. The dark bar is what matters most. We're a week past this data now.

Let's take a moment and appreciate how much work public transport in Auckland does every day. Here's an animation of 5 hours of buses, trains, and ferries serving the city yesterday, with somewhere around 400,000 boards across over 5,000 bus stops, train stations, and ferry terminals.

57.7% of NZers, 2.9 million people, can reach public transport within a 10-minute walk. Auckland hits 87.8%. The govt's new fuel subsidy targets 143,000 families. Free fares could reach 20x as many. NZ has the access. What's the argument against?

People in $90,000 utes with 80-litre fuel tanks, call me an elitist for riding a $2.5k ebike that costs $0.10 (yes, 10 CENTS) to charge... (Photo from Reddit)

Tim Welch reposted

Yes, and – we'd nuance this, e.g. for Auckland & Wellington (already high usage/ good services), govt could consider options like: • deep discounts for children, young people, CSC holders • and 50% off all fares, or a lower weekly cap ...while focusing fully free fares on smaller cities and towns.

Tim Welch@tfwelch.com

In my latest for @newsroom.co.nz, I argue the government should make public transport free for at least three months. The $50 fuel payment costs $373M/year and doesn't cut a single litre of consumption. Free fares would cost less and actually reduce petrol demand. newsroom.co.nz/2026/03/27/f...

In my latest for @newsroom.co.nz, I argue the government should make public transport free for at least three months. The $50 fuel payment costs $373M/year and doesn't cut a single litre of consumption. Free fares would cost less and actually reduce petrol demand. newsroom.co.nz/2026/03/27/f...

newsroom.co.nzFree public transport the fuel crisis response that makes senseOpinion from Auckland University: Targeted fuel relief doesn’t reduce a single litre of consumption. Free public transport, however, delivers household relief, eases congestion, and conserves fuel for...

While we're paying more at the pump, fuel importers are making almost nothing. MBIE's own data shows the diesel importer margin has collapsed to near zero. NZ is 100% import-dependent. When there's no margin, either prices rise (a lot) further, or supply doesn't come. There is no third option.

New MBIE data (Mar 22): in-country diesel down to 18 days, territory where the National Fuel Plan contemplates mandatory constraints. Yet we are doing nothing. Only 2 ships arriving in the next 2 weeks, 1 carries diesel. Total supply: 46.6 days, down from 52 in two weeks. Updated graphic below.