Tom Barson

Tom Barson

@tbarson49.bsky.social

Retired global IT services director. Hopeless eclectic with weaknesses for economics, history, philosophy of science, geopolitics, mathematics, and music. East Lansing, MI

147 followers471 following616 posts

Tom Barson reposted

Claudia Sahm
@claudia-sahm.bsky.social

“Fifty years from now, you will want to be able to look in the mirror and know that you did what you thought was right, in every part of your life. At the end of the day, your integrity is all you have.” Jay Powell www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

federalreserve.govBaccalaureate remarks by Chair Powell at the Princeton University Baccalaureate CeremonyThank you, President Eisgruber, for the opportunity to speak here today. Congratulations to the Princeton University class of 2025 on the tremendous achievemen
Tom Barson
@tbarson49.bsky.social

Might one reason be that the US mainly exports that light Texas crude? (I've been told that the US mainly refines heavy oil and exports the higher-priced light stuff. If that's the case, then tariffs could have a big impact. Customers can't buy if they can't sell.)

Steve Rattner@steverattner.bsky.social

Despite Trump’s assertions, drill baby drill simply isn’t happening — drillers have started shedding rigs. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

Tom Barson
@tbarson49.bsky.social

Go fast and break things.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick@reichlinmelnick.bsky.social

Hours ago, @politico.com revealed that DOGE is working with DHS on automating mass deportation efforts — likely explaining why many US citizens, green card holders, and even a Canadian (in Canada) got threatening emails last night terminating “your parole” and telling them to leave the US in 7 days.

Tom Barson
@tbarson49.bsky.social

Note that this isn't economics, or even "political economy". Only in a pure great power conflict "game" could you possibly justify the assertion that the least-loser "wins" via an implicit claim that less is more.

Branko Milanovic@brankomilan.bsky.social

When people write that US is losing with tariffs, they fail to understand the nature of the game the US is playing. It is playing a lose-lose game, but that game makes sense if the US thinks that China will lose more, and thus in relative sense US will be up. Absolute losses do not matter as such.

Tom Barson
@tbarson49.bsky.social

It can be both, stupid.

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social

Yes! Of course the state of the economy matters to all kinds of voters, but unless your opponent wipes out 10% of the stock market in two days (ooops!) right before the election you just need to come to grips with the actual cultural views of the electorate.

Tom Barson
@tbarson49.bsky.social

In the "It's an ill wind..." dept., @delong.social reminds us that if a bot has replaced Navarro, Hassett, Bessent & Co, Liberation Day might be a net win. FWIW, I ran the "Reciprocal Tariff" formula past DeepSeek, which quickly replied that it was nonsense. braddelong.substack.com/p/tariffs-by...

braddelong.substack.comTariffs by Chatbot: Trump’s Trade Policy as AI-Generated FarceTrump’s tariff regime isn’t just wrong—it’s mathematically incoherent, diplomatically corrosive, and economically catastrophic...

Tom Barson reposted

100.3 The Q!
@theq.fm

I've never seen anyone windmill on a violin before, but I'm certainly looking forward to it. Happy Friday -Scott

Tom Barson reposted

Adam Bonica
@adambonica.bsky.social

1/🧵 Judges across ideological lines are ruling against Trump at strikingly similar rates (84% liberal, 86% centrist, 82% conservative). This isn't partisan opposition to Trump—it's the judiciary functioning as intended by cutting across partisan lines to uphold the Constitution.

Tom Barson reposted

Amy W. Ando
@awando.bsky.social

Judges are doing their jobs

Adam Bonica@adambonica.bsky.social

1/🧵 Judges across ideological lines are ruling against Trump at strikingly similar rates (84% liberal, 86% centrist, 82% conservative). This isn't partisan opposition to Trump—it's the judiciary functioning as intended by cutting across partisan lines to uphold the Constitution.

Tom Barson
@tbarson49.bsky.social

This is the Bernstein we need.

Jared Bernstein@jaredb-econ.bsky.social

I reviewed a new David Leonhardt article that is a must-read imho. It's a powerful argument re how the Danish Social D gov't has bucked the trend toward authoritarianism by managing immigration policy. econjared.substack.com/p/kryptonite...

econjared.substack.comKryptonite to the Right: How Denmark is Bucking the Rightward TrendDavid Leonhardt’s argument is crystal clear and highly persuasive.
Tom Barson
@tbarson49.bsky.social

Of course, ordinary voters' tolerance for missteps is not unlimited. A bad-enough economy, a foreign policy humiliation, a poor response to a natural disaster: any or all of these may shift enough swing voters to make Bernstein's proposals part of a viable platform. 8/9

Tom Barson
@tbarson49.bsky.social

But such a (welcome) swing would likely be as temporary as 2020 proved to be. If Democrats are instead going to attempt "real populism," they need to get clear on what this entails. It means getting clear on who is first in line, at whose expense, and how this prioritization will be achieved. 9/end

Tom Barson
@tbarson49.bsky.social

Mayberry has always been like that. The dynamic we face is that struggling ordinary voters don't want to be taxed for programs that primarily benefit people who are struggling even more -- especially if the beneficiaries can easily (even if not correctly) associated with some outgroup. 6/9

Tom Barson
@tbarson49.bsky.social

These voters want more income, not "programs" in the abstract. When they tell us that "Trump fought for me" they mean that Trump gave them a tax cut, and they will tolerate a lot missteps, I fear, if Trump gives them another one. 7/9

Tom Barson
@tbarson49.bsky.social

Bernstein clearly believes that, counter to the "faux-populism", his proposals represent "real populism." I doubt this very much. Populism, in all its varieties, is an aggrieved demand to be first in line, and I don't think any form of recycled Bidenism can touch that chord. 4/9

Tom Barson
@tbarson49.bsky.social

Educated, cosmopolitain voters are universalists. Ordinary voters are not. Ordinary voters' sympathies are highly proximate. To take a recent ugly example, they might go on a work-trip to Haiti or generously help the Haitian kid next door, but they don't want government benefits to go Haitians. 5/9

Tom Barson
@tbarson49.bsky.social

First, this is a set of admittedly-dry principles for an economic policy platform. Bernstein admits it doesn't (and probably can't) address cultural cleavages, deep political polarization, etc. Unfortunately that's a critical admission. 2/9

Tom Barson
@tbarson49.bsky.social

I fear that to start a Democratic response with policy proposals is simply to jump back on the wonks-lose wagon that has bedeviled the Democratic party (as the country has shifted away from it) since at least 1968. 3/9

Tom Barson
@tbarson49.bsky.social

Well, it reduced between-country average-income inequality -- as Asia industrialized. This doesn't tell us anything about within-country distributions, much less real income changes within deciles.

Ming F. Wan@minniewannie.bsky.social

Economists know it, but politicians rarely say it—globalization massively reduced global inequality. 🧪 #EconSky