Center for Strategic Politics

🚨 NEW POLL of CA-34 🔹 Angela Gonzales-Torres leads Jimmy Gomez 48-38 🔹 AI industry has -67 net favorability 🔹 65% of voters want to fully cease military aid to Israel 🧵 Read the thread for more insights

stratpolitics.orgCA-34 General Election Poll (Oct) – Center for Strategic Politics

For more information, including crosstabs for the full poll, visit our website: stratpolitics.org/2026/10/ca-3...

stratpolitics.orgDonate – Center for Strategic Politics

We use small donations from everyday people, not big grants from foundations, to power our work. Support our research and help us fund more surveys: stratpolitics.org/donate

61% of voters say that the issue of Israel/Palestine will be extremely or very important in deciding their vote, while only 17% say it will be not at all or not too important.

Among that 61%, 80% say they want to fully cease military aid to Israel, while 65% of all voters want to cease military aid.

After voters hear balanced positive and negative biographies of both candidates, Gonzales-Torres’ lead increases to 22%.

While Jimmy Gomez and Angela Gonzales-Torres have similar levels of positive favorability, Gomez’s significantly higher negative ratings suggest that voters’ opinions of him are more entrenched.

Before voters hear anything about either candidate, Angela Gonzales-Torres already leads Jimmy Gomez by 10 points.

🚨 NEW POLL of Democratic voters w/ @liberalcurrents.com 🔹 Harris, Newsom, Buttigieg lead the 2028 field 🔹 59% of Dems support military coup against Trump 🔹 57% of Dems want Biden officials in jail over Gaza 🧵 Read the thread for more insights

The full crosstabs for every question we asked are available here: stratpolitics.org/wp-content/u...

stratpolitics.orgDonate – Center for Strategic Politics

We use small donations from everyday people, not big grants from foundations, to power our work. Support our research and help us fund more surveys: stratpolitics.org/donate

Just for fun, we asked voters which establishments they regularly tip at. At least among Democrats, the norm is to tip everywhere with one exception: fast food.

liberalcurrents.comWhat Are Democrats Thinking?Democratic voters want to end the filibuster, nationalize artificial intelligence, and prosecute every Trump toady.

Read more analysis on our poll from Chance Phillips at Liberal Currents: www.liberalcurrents.com/what-are-dem...

A majority of Democrats want to pack the Supreme Court and abolish the filibuster, but getting rid of the Senate altogether is highly disfavored (however, 34% of Dems under 45 support it).

27% of Democrats told us they plan to use AI to figure out how to vote in future elections, with 7% saying they plan to use it "a lot".

We polled five routes for Trump to leave office before the end of his term. A plurality of Dems support four of them, including a military coup and death by natural causes. The only one underwater, an assassination, is still supported by 29%.

Criminal prosecutions of Trump officials are generally favored by Dems, with clear majorities indicating support in all cases. Voters also support prosecution of officials from both the Trump and Biden admins over US support for Israel's genocide in Gaza.

All 2028 contenders and high-profile party figures we polled are broadly popular with Dems. The one exception? Chuck Schumer. And for all the arguing over Hasan Piker, 72% of Dems either don't know or don't care about him.

Who do Democrats trust? Their friends, family, and the New York Times. Who do they distrust? CEOs and the government.

@sstratpolitics.bsky.social

Kamala Harris easily takes first place in our poll of the 2028 Democratic primary, with Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg rounding out the top three.

Center for Strategic Politics reposted

nickan نیکان

@gaygirl.bsky.social

19 Aug

Replying to @sstratpolitics.bsky.social

as expected, the overwhelming majority of undecideds went to Moskowitz—87% of them were 45+, so they were already primed to lean toward him, and his much greater ad spending was effective in winning them over. this suggests the CSP poll was a more accurate snapshot than competitors' were

Center for Strategic Politics reposted

19 Aug

Center for Strategic Politics reposted

Oliver Larkin

@oliveralarkin.bsky.social

NEW POLL: We are in a statistical tie with Rep. Jared Moskowitz — with just 11 days until the election! 🟦 Oliver Larkin: 38% 🟥 Jared Moskowitz: 40% ⬛ Undecided: 22%

🚨 NEW POLL of likely Dem voters in FL-25 🔹Oliver Larkin and Jared Moskowitz in statistical tie with 22% undecided 🔹 68% of voters want to end or reduce military aid to Israel 🔹Moskowitz has -27 net favorability with Black voters 🧵Read the thread for more insights

stratpolitics.orgFL-25 Democratic Primary Poll (August 2026) – Center for Strategic Politics

For more information, including crosstabs for the full poll, visit our website: stratpolitics.org/2026/08/fl-2...

stratpolitics.orgDonate – Center for Strategic Politics

We use small donations from everyday people, not big grants from foundations, to power our work. Support our research and help us fund more surveys: stratpolitics.org/donate

In Oliver Larkin’s word cloud, the words pedophile, Trump, and Fox appear frequently due to a recent appearance on Fox News in which he said “We need to hold this pedophile Donald Trump accountable.” Clips of this appearance have spread widely on social media in the past week.

In Jared Moskowitz’s word cloud, the word DeSantis appears frequently due to Moskowitz’s previous identification as a “DeSantis Democrat”. The words Israel and AIPAC appear frequently due to Moskowitz’s self-identification as strongly pro-Israel.

Support for military aid to Israel is even less popular than AIPAC, with 68% of FL-25 Democrats saying they want to either reduce or cease all military aid to Israel.

We asked respondents to optionally provide a statement on what they’ve recently heard, seen, or read about both of the candidates, then transformed these statements into word clouds.

But when separating responses between those who have already voted and those still waiting to vote, a significant divergence appears. With a 10% lead among not-yet-voters, Oliver Larkin’s path to victory relies on mobilizing his later-voting base to the greatest extent possible.

AIPAC support has become a deep vulnerability in districts around the country and FL-25 is no different. 43% of FL-25 Dems are less likely to support an AIPAC-backed candidate, only 15% are more likely to, while another 42% either feel neutral or aren’t sure how they feel.

With under two weeks to election day, Oliver Larkin and Jared Moskowitz are in a statistical tie to claim the Democratic nomination in Florida’s new 25th Congressional District.

5 Aug

Congratulations to Donavan McKinney (@donavanmckinney.bsky.social) and Chris Gilmer-Hill (@313cgh.bsky.social)! Center for Strategic Politics client Progress Detroit PAC used our polling to direct resources & ascertain the state of the race in the weeks leading up to the primary for their endorsees.

Congratulations to Center for Strategic Politics client @aparnafordc.bsky.social! With ranked choice voting being newly introduced to DC elections this year, Aparna’s campaign used CSP polling to determine the state of the race and test messages.

But just looking at toplines can be misleading. Breaking out the top 3 issues by ideology reveals a much more complicated picture, where housing affordability is extremely socialist-biased, cost of living is ideologically even, and crime is extremely moderate-biased

You can find the entire memo we prepared for the campaign here: stratpolitics.org/wp-content/u... And the crosstabs for the entire poll here: stratpolitics.org/wp-content/u...

RCV transfers concluded before votes from either Rashida Brown or Miguel Trinidade Deramo transferred, avoiding the impact of their cross-endorsement. But our poll found that even after being widely-publicized, it was still less than 50% effective and wouldn't have been decisive

We also conducted issue polling, finding that housing, cost of living, and crime are the top 3 issues for Ward 1 Democrats

While our poll stayed internal during the campaign, we can now share that we successfully projected the first-round results within the margin of error back in April

Although Aparna won one round earlier than we expected in our RCV simulation, it was still extremely accurate. Round 3 results in our simulation correspond almost exactly to the final round of the election (with Aparna at 51% rather than 49%, avoiding the 4th round we simulated)

17 June

Congratulations to Center for Strategic Politics client @samsonforgeorgia.bsky.social on his win tonight! Mathewos’ campaign used CSP polling and data to effectively direct resources through both the primary and runoff elections.