Steve Akehurst

Brazil is also a warning to treat current Presidential polling in France with a bit of caution. If the rise of the radical right is a global trend, so is last minute counter movements & tactical voting against those same forces. Lula is unique but the pattern here isn’t!

Erin Reed@erininthemorning.com

Lula pulls it off! Down with fascism!

It’s not worth pretending voters have strong views on existing North Sea oil licenses because they don’t. The political risk for govt then is in the comms/signalling. Is Jackdaw received by progressive voters as a pragmatic step along the road to clean energy - or abandoning the cause?

@christabelcoops.bsky.social

I thought Fahnbulleh did pretty strong job on Today of erring to latter (no ‘hippy punching’!) but will ultimately depend on how long it hangs around in news cycle. My guess fwiw is Burnham is in enough credit with progressive swing voters for it to be a non-event, but let’s see

Steve Akehurst reposted

Christabel Cooper

This is really good research on the EU from Steve - the rejoin argument is winnable, but is going to be difficult. (If Cameron had appreciated this in the 2010s then history would be very different..) For example, payments into the EU Budget are more problematic than freedom of movement.

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social

NEW: How robust is opinion change on Brexit/Brexit @persuasionuk.bsky.social research properly stress tested it. We find a fair bit of softness. We think headline Rejoin support is more like 52 v 48% (!) rather than ~64-36% you see in polls. Not fatal for Rejoin but worth paying attention to🧵

Steve Akehurst reposted

Rob Ford

@robfordmancs.bsky.social

Waaay back in 2018, @profsob.bsky.social and I estimated a very basic demographic model and projected that support for Brexit would fall by perhaps 7% by 2026 due to demographic change. So its pleasing to see a similar (tho slightly lower) estimate in this new report. ukandeu.ac.uk/demographic-...

ukandeu.ac.ukArticle 50 one year on: demographic change, public opinion and Brexit - UK in a changing EuropeOn 28th February 2018, former Prime Minister Sir John Major caused a stir by declaring that: “By 2021 […] the electorate will...

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social

Firstly, worth saying that Brexit is now widely perceived to be a failure by UK voters. Hence topline support for Rejoin in many polls. Demography matters too. Of the ~13.5 point fall in Leave/Stay Out opinion since 2016, 5.5 points is old people dying and new.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)

to flag some typos in this thread, apols: - how robust is opinion on Brexit/Rejoin? - second tweet: 'new voters coming into the electorate' Will teach me to not write stuff late at night. Hopefully made sense anyway.

Steve Akehurst reposted

Ian Dunt

@iandunt.bsky.social

This is very interesting and pro- Europeans should read it carefully.

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social

Steve Akehurst reposted

@sundersays.bsky.social

This is excellent research @persuasionuk.bsky.social It aligns with ours: broad Brexit scepticism + desire for closer without knowing where to end up The join plurality is fragile in debate - but stay out underestimates its weak base as the minority tribe now when it says "tell them again!"

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social

In the interim, i'd be suspicious of any topline polling on a subject most ppl aren't thinking of much. There's also lots that needs looking at on electoral politics of a Lab Rejoin offer. eg does it encourage tactical voting on right; is it a trump card vs SNP/Plaid in Scotland/Wales or no, etc.

persuasionuk.orgHow solid is opinion shift on Brexit and Rejoin?Exploring changing attitudes to UK-EU relations in 2026

Ok that's the thread. I am really proud of this research, I think it's some of the best we've done. Hope you'll get the chance to read it in full. Up here: persuasionuk.org/research/bre... Finally, big thanks to @ippr.org & as ever @convergent-opinion.bsky.social for their partnership on this. End!

This and demography - plus Brexit being synonymous with status quo in a restless electorate - are genuinely big tectonic forces that push to Europe. Anti-EU advocates will not be able to rely on the same playbook as 2016.

So what then? My overall read is is if you offered people the chance to be *back in EU tomorrow on exactly same terms as before* you'd probably get a majority. But it's the gap between that and reality where softness lies. Opinion is in fluid and there to be won by either side imo.

Another vulnerability is just sheer voter exhaustion. Voters willing to give politicians 18 months to sort out a deal but anything more drags down support. Badenoch tapped into this well recently, more 'do we really want to re-open all this' than 'tell the lib traitors again'

What's the good news for pro-EU advocates? 3 things consistently push voters to Rejoin: - Travel chaos is tangible and has been noticed. Evens up politics of free movement - Economy (impact on SMEs) - Security/defence. US unreliable in a dangerous world = push to EU.

After exposure to the elements and messages likely to be involved, support for Rejoin ended up at ~52-48% on average. Still a majority - and strong among Lab 24 - but bit lower than top line polling. 'Closer Relationship' (customs union) cleared 50% a bit more easily.

What pushes up and down on Rejoin, then? The main things that pull it <50% are: - any prospect (however theoretical) of Euro - Budget payments - Exiting trade deals (surprised me but maybe sunk cost factor) Freedom of movement a vulnerability but less potent than 2016 imo

To stress test, we ran a conjoint expoing voters to different obligations & benefits of Rejoin or Closer Relationship deal, plus pro & anti messages. Then RCT exposing ppl to likely media headlines, incl hostile ones. Idea was to test opinion in more realistic info enviro. Example set-up from both:

NEW: How does Kemi Badenoch’s confeerence speech go down with voters when they are exposed to it? Final conference season video testing from @persuasionuk.bsky.social below. Overall - good results, even if less strong than Burnham’s. Winning themes are young people jobs/IHT, anti-Reform attack.

tinyurl.comKemi Badenoch speech testing - Google Drive

Overall, a solid showing - I think nicely shows you the abstract dividing lines, attacks or wonkery work a bit less well but concrete old-fashioned Tory offer on jobs and tax is strong, and anti-Reform angle lands too. Tables up soon and videos here: tinyurl.com/KemiVideos

Final reflection: i think something like Cameron coalition is more available to Kemi than the Boris one but there's bunch of positions she's taken since '24 (ECHR, pro-Iran war, anti-EU etc) that are a shade discordant with it. Interested to see if those change or if Reform gravity reasserts itself.

Best PM numbers most boosted by the anti-Reform attack. Likewise, people who saw the whole BBC News at 6 package increased in VI - modest rises but still decent.

Lastly, was a more attack focused speech than Burnham’s - no massive sign that the attacks hurt Labour much, but they did damage Reform. (oddly attack on Burnham benefited Reform!) Youth jobs and property taxes a pull for decent number of Labour 2024 voters though.

First on voting intention. Property taxes boosted vote intent by +6 points; jobs +5. Less than Burnham’s +10 pt lifts last week but still good. Attack on Reform saw a small bump also. It’s old-fashioned Con fare on taxes/jobs that works best tho. Strong in London & among young.

Interesting pattern on changes in her personal ratings in that the lifts are stronger overall - slightly suggests what we see in national polls is her brand can’t lift the Tory one at the moment even if people are responsible to some things she says.

Methodology: ~3600 voters split into 8; control group see no video (just get told Tories had a conf). 7 see one clip from speech, another the News at 6 package. We see how exposure changes attitudes. This cannot predict elections (!) but it can test strengths and weaknesses.

The ones we chose from her speech were: - 'battle of ideas' opening salvo/dividing lines on tax and spend - attack on Burnham (back to 70s; unfunded pledges etc) - attack on Reform (re: Englishness, racism) - jobs for young people - planning dereg - property taxes incl IHT

NEW: What happened in Holborn? Some constituency polling to help us understand a bit more. TLDR: loyalty to Burnham + a local candidate won the day; no real sign of tactical voting; Greens never convinced ppl they could win but Polanski not toxic necessarily. @persuasionuk.bsky.social

Finally, thought this was interesting and encouraging for Burnham - a safe seat yes but a London one and no sign many people here interpret him as anti-London, esp Labour electoral coalition.

newstatesman.comWhat Holborn and St Pancras voters wantedExclusive polling reveals residents rejected the Greens in order "not to undermine the Labour government"

That’s the end - in short, fairly unspectacular result; bad vibes around Greens/ZP recently didn’t help the perception they could win, but also fundamentals always favoured Labour under Burnham. And @mxmorgan.com is in the NS below. Cheers!  www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

Why did people not vote Green? Not wanting to hurt a Lab govt (again impressive mid-term) but also a sense Greens couldn’t win. They never built momentum and probably bad media vibes didn’t help. List was written before ‘Zionism is racism’ furore but no huge sign of salience.

Why *did* ppl vote Green and not Lab? Pulls to Greens was core message of pressuring Labour govt from left; housing; wealth inequality. Pushes from Labour: mostly govt delivery (housing again!) plus a little bit of residual toxicity on welfare & Gaza in what is a liberal seat.

Why did people vote Labour? The local candidate was well known and popular, and ultimately people didn’t want to do damage a Labour government.

We see a bit of this here in net favourables - Burnham and local candidate had strong favourables; even Green/Polanski voters like Burnham while strongly disliking Starmer. Polanski not necessarily unpopular just not preferred.

We worked w/ @convergentrsrch to field a poll from 20th Sept to polling day, most fieldwork 1st-8th Oct. Purpose purely to understand the result if there was an upset. Fieldwork finished yesterday, didn’t release as didn’t want to influence things unduly. Data has been weighted to the result. n=405.

Here are the voter flows on 2024 - obviously a lot of non-voters but Labour limiting losses to the Greens among those to 10% is impressive given we're mid-term and no Reform threat. Lab have meaningfully brought some people back since May also, mostly from independent and left.

Holborn and St Pancras - fairly unremarkable in the end except to say: - Burnham slowly piecing back the Lab 24 coalition, albeit mostly the left bit so far - Greens a shade underwhelming and reflects less space for them but also taking their eye off the ball a bit in the last six months

Only thing to say on Labour - as John Curtice notes on BBC - 2024 wasn’t a great result in the seat historically and hitting it again maybe suggests pro-Palestine Muslim vote has still not come back to Lab in big numbers.

Also - what to say of a Tory party that loses its deposit in Makerfield but keeps it in Holborn! Curious times

Green target voter is basically a normie lib or elderly nature minded voter. Since Gorton there’s been chat about replacing Labour or winning Reform voters(!) all while ZP seems to have been slowly radicalised by his own social media feed. Refocus and they can still get 15-20 MPs next election imo

break-down.orgMaking people care about the climateAs the world heats up, are we really taking notice?

Brazil - a country the size of a continent - takes roughly two hours to count every vote cast in its elections. Currently twice that length in Holborn for a single by-election with 27,000 votes! Very cool country imo 🇬🇧

Steve Akehurst reposted

Morgan Jones

@morganj0nes.bsky.social

Pleased to have this out today with @steveakehurst.bsky.social, discussing @persuasionuk.bsky.social's work on climate salience and public attitudes. I'm really pleased with the piece, do give it a read: www.break-down.org/making-peopl...

Steve Akehurst reposted

James Breckwoldt

@jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social

Pop culture has spent the past 25 years promoting a different kind of protagonist: the anti-hero. How can political campaigns tap into some of the same appeal? What happens if, rather than trying to make yourself seem squeaky-clean, you channel your inner Nietzsche and move beyond good and evil?

jamesbreckwoldt.substack.comHow to Become a Political Anti-HeroIt’s not exhausting always rooting for the anti-hero. Being one in politics can make you more popular and relatable, and increase the intensity of your support.

Strongest Badenoch bits: - line on EU (‘do we really want to do all this again’) will resonate - distance with Reform on Englishness/ racism - bits on youth unemployment, welfare, property taxes Main downside: quite heavy on partisan attacks which test voter patience after a while

Also a bit notable that there isn’t much wrestling with why voters went from Con to Lab or Lib Dem beyond ‘too much psychodrama’. Not much on neutralising weaknesses on public services. But generally better pitched to those voters than her early years as leader tbf.

Steve Akehurst reposted

James Heale

@jaheale.bsky.social

Morgan always worth reading:

Morgan Jones@morganj0nes.bsky.social

I also go a bit into some of our other work on ownership issues, discussing more on why this area of the speech is particularly popular.

“I was talking to my flatmate…” “Why’s he flat, what happened?” received with overwhelming hostility but I remain undeterred👍

Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social

What's the stupidest joke you most have to fight the urge to tell? Mine is not replying to questions about whether I have any allergies with 'we'll find out together, I guess'.