Stephen Jarvis

If this 5 min grace period applies to the exorbitant dropoff fees that airports charge in the UK (and seemingly only in the UK) then even better. Manchester airport (which Burnham is presumably familiar with) doesn't even have barriers and so will ding you £100 if you're not paying attention.

The solution that people dare not mention: congestion pricing. The ULEZ and camera infrastructure is there. There’s already a congestion charge in the very centre. Time to widen the footprint and modify the rates so you pay more near the centre and for peak vs off-peak. It can be done!

With zonal market reforms ruled out and a whole bunch more renewable generation on the way, failing to do more to upgrade the grid over the last decade is becoming increasingly costly. These network projects now really do need to happen as fast as possible.

See also...

Have been very much out of office on a hiking trip for the past two weeks but now I’m back I’m excited to share a bit more about this new research. Short version: electricity demand for heating and cooling (particularly on peak days) looks set to rise basically everywhere in coming decades. (1/n)

Ultimately all forms of power infrastructure face challenges operating during temperature extremes, from thermal fossil/nuclear plants to power lines and substations. Adequate long-term capacity planning, improved forecasting, and more efficient short-run price incentives will all be key. (19/n)

Have been very much out of office on a hiking trip for the past two weeks but now I’m back I’m excited to share a bit more about this new research. Short version: electricity demand for heating and cooling (particularly on peak days) looks set to rise basically everywhere in coming decades. (1/n)

A number of key takeaways to keep in mind. First, the central role of AC and electric heating to future electricity demand emphasizes the importance of appliance efficiency, as well as passive cooling, building insulation, and urban planning. All could help mitigate the impacts we find. (17/n)

Have been very much out of office on a hiking trip for the past two weeks but now I’m back I’m excited to share a bit more about this new research. Short version: electricity demand for heating and cooling (particularly on peak days) looks set to rise basically everywhere in coming decades. (1/n)

The global cost of meeting this additional electricity demand exceeds $0.3 trillion per year by mid-century. Most of this reflects the expense of meeting higher average electricity demand, but a significant portion also stems from investments in spare capacity just to meet demand peaks. (15/n)

Have been very much out of office on a hiking trip for the past two weeks but now I’m back I’m excited to share a bit more about this new research. Short version: electricity demand for heating and cooling (particularly on peak days) looks set to rise basically everywhere in coming decades. (1/n)

We can decompose these changes into the three key underlying drivers: economic development, climate change, and electrification policy. This makes clear how these different drivers are heterogeneous across regions but consistently combine to produce the overall net increases we observe. (13/n)

Have been very much out of office on a hiking trip for the past two weeks but now I’m back I’m excited to share a bit more about this new research. Short version: electricity demand for heating and cooling (particularly on peak days) looks set to rise basically everywhere in coming decades. (1/n)

We then bring this all together - our understanding of the electricity-temperature response, the shift in temperatures due to climate change, and the changes in the uptake of AC and electric heating - to model the full 2050 daily electricity demand for countries and regions around the world. (11/n)

Have been very much out of office on a hiking trip for the past two weeks but now I’m back I’m excited to share a bit more about this new research. Short version: electricity demand for heating and cooling (particularly on peak days) looks set to rise basically everywhere in coming decades. (1/n)

To study this we first model adoption of AC and electric heating as a function of a few key variables. We find a clear S-shaped adoption curve as incomes rise, with the shape of the curve varying by how hot/cold the climate is, the level of electricity prices, and the degree of electrification (9/n)

Have been very much out of office on a hiking trip for the past two weeks but now I’m back I’m excited to share a bit more about this new research. Short version: electricity demand for heating and cooling (particularly on peak days) looks set to rise basically everywhere in coming decades. (1/n)

But what does all this mean for the future? Three key drivers are of particular interest here: 1) Rising incomes due to economic development, 2) Warmer temperatures due to climate change, and 3) Decarbonisation policy aiming to electrify heating currently met by fossil fuels. (7/n)

Have been very much out of office on a hiking trip for the past two weeks but now I’m back I’m excited to share a bit more about this new research. Short version: electricity demand for heating and cooling (particularly on peak days) looks set to rise basically everywhere in coming decades. (1/n)

So, how do we model this more explicitly? Yet more data collection! This time we find surveys that give us some sense of the share of households with either AC or that use electricity as their main heating source. Again, we have a large, diverse sample spanning different incomes and climates. (5/n)

Have been very much out of office on a hiking trip for the past two weeks but now I’m back I’m excited to share a bit more about this new research. Short version: electricity demand for heating and cooling (particularly on peak days) looks set to rise basically everywhere in coming decades. (1/n)

When we examine the relationship between fluctuations in electricity demand and temperatures, we see the kind of effect you’d expect based on the prior climate impacts literature: very hot or very cold days see large increases in electricity demand, but only in higher income countries. (3/n)

Have been very much out of office on a hiking trip for the past two weeks but now I’m back I’m excited to share a bit more about this new research. Short version: electricity demand for heating and cooling (particularly on peak days) looks set to rise basically everywhere in coming decades. (1/n)